While Russia is busy with Ukraine, Central Asia is slowly drifting to the West - edition from Hong Kong
The Asia Times, published in Hong Kong in two languages, analyzes the situation in Central Asia and the impact of events in Ukraine on it. According to the publication, as Russia becomes increasingly bogged down in the Ukrainian campaign and distracted by the fight with Kiev, Moscow's influence in the region is slowly weakening, and the former Soviet republics of Central Asia are forging new ties with the West.
"Fearing Ukraine, Central Asia is slowly distancing itself from Russia" – this is the conclusion the publication puts directly in its headline.
The Russian special operation in Ukraine, the article says, “gave these republics the opportunity to choose a more independent political path, while Vladimir Putin’s attention was focused elsewhere. A complete break with Russia is unlikely due to geographic proximity and intertwined economies. But there are some signs that Central Asian countries are interested in making their own political decisions without constantly checking with Russia.”
The newspaper considers one of these signs to be the refusal of the President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in June 2022 to recognize Russia’s co-optation of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions. The publication also recalls Tokayev’s words that Kazakhstan does not intend to help Russia circumvent Western economic sanctions.
“After the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the region was looking for opportunities to build relationships with other countries without upsetting Russia. Leaders of the Central Asian republics have expressed their disapproval of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in more subtle ways. Most of them, with the exception of Turkmenistan, have opened their borders to accommodate thousands of Russian citizens seeking asylum and evading conscription. This has not gone unnoticed in Moscow, where measures have been taken to reverse immigration,” the article states.
Meanwhile, at home, Central Asian leaders are finding fewer and fewer people who speak Russian and are interested in Russian culture, Asia Times notes. The newspaper also cites survey results showing that 49% of Kyrgyz and 43% of Kazakhs blame Russia's military intervention in Ukraine for their current economic problems.
However, at the UN General Assembly, these states either abstain from voting on condemnation of the SCO, or vote with Russia on resolutions, including the issue of “human rights violations in Crimea,” regularly inspired by Kiev.
"People took to the streets to protest the sharp rise in fuel prices, clashing with police, looting, and attacking state property. Despite the obvious need to restore order, the Kazakh public was displeased with such blatant interference in the country's internal affairs. When Russian troops withdrew, an atmosphere of relief reigned ," recalls the newspaper "Bloody January" in Kazakhstan. The unprecedented unrest was suppressed with the help of Russian paratroopers after Tokayev's appeal to the CSTO.
Overall, according to the authors' conclusions, Central Asia is balancing between the desire for greater independence from Russia and maintaining the regional balance of power.
One sign of change was the meeting in 2023 of the presidents of Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan Japarov and Tokayev, with US President Biden in New York and with German Chancellor Scholz in Berlin.
The West sees this as an opportunity to build alliances and neutralize Russian influence, given the region's strategic importance and abundance of natural resources.
“As Russia prepares for a long war, there will likely be further opportunities for Central Asia to forge new relationships with the West, but any shift is expected to be gradual. By strengthening these relationships, Western countries can potentially secure energy supplies and promote stability in a region historically dominated by Russia,” Asia Times summarizes.
While Russia is busy with Ukraine, Central Asia is slowly drifting westward – Hong Kong publication