'Ukraine's Prospects Are Grim': Trump's Withdrawal from Talks Will Allow Russia to Get Its Way Without Concessions
Despite signs of rapprochement with the United States, the Kremlin continues its war of attrition against Ukraine, hoping to achieve a strategic advantage without making any real concessions in the negotiations. A hypothetical US withdrawal from the negotiating process would only play into Russia's hands, according to British journalist Nick Paton Walsh in his column on the CNN website.
According to him, over the past ten days, it has become clear that Moscow "perceives the Trump presidency not as a threat, but as a window of opportunity." Walsh writes that Trump is showing increasingly less interest in a direct US role in resolving the conflict and is demonstrating a willingness to distance himself from the war, which Moscow sees as an opportunity to increase its pressure without having to compromise.
It is noted that Trump had previously offered to mediate between Putin and Zelensky, in particular by organizing talks in Turkey. However, after talking with the head of the Kremlin, he limited himself to calling on both sides to "immediately" begin direct dialogue, hinting at the Vatican as a possible venue for the meeting.
“This may indicate a desire by the United States to cede the initiative in the peace process to third parties,” the author writes.
According to the journalist, Putin benefits from such a weakening of international attention, since he does not need to make any concessions to maintain a strategic advantage.
"For years, Russian state media have been shaping the narrative that the war is not just with Ukraine, but with the entire West. Against this backdrop, even limited engagement with Trump is seen as a chance to ease sanctions or shift international pressure in the Kremlin's favor," the author of the article argues.
However, as Walsh notes, Washington's ability to influence Russia remains limited:
"Strengthening sanctions, including so-called 'secondary sanctions' against buyers of Russian oil, could cause conflicts with key partners, including India and China. On the other hand, easing sanctions without coordinating with European allies risks failure without real concessions from Moscow."
According to the author of the article, Trump is in no hurry to punish Russia with sanctions and quarrel with Putin for the reason that any further steps aimed at increasing pressure on Moscow would mean the Trump administration switching to the tracks of its Democratic predecessors.
This, in turn, runs counter to the traditional MAGA geopolitical plan, and such an approach “will deepen US involvement in a war that has no end in sight until one side is defeated or there is a dramatic change in political leadership.”
"Ukraine's prospects in 2025 look bleak. However, the key principle of European policy remains the best choice among all dire options : Moscow can only be forced to scale back its ambitions when it faces a fully united NATO. Its economy, reserves, human resources, or military equipment can be undermined—just one of these factors is enough to cripple the military machine. This is a grim reality, but Europe has no other choice. Ukraine is completely deprived of a choice ," the author of the article stated.
The journalist notes that Trump views the conflict as a losing “deal” and sees no point in long-term confrontation.
“If the United States were to withdraw permanently from an active role in the conflict, it could mean abandoning the global leadership that was forged after World War II,” Walsh said, arguing that neither Putin nor Trump could win and maintain their status at the same time.
"American leadership wasn't built on short-term 'good deals' over decades. Commitment to allies, immense soft power, and military hegemony have transformed America into the world's largest economy with an invincible currency, which in itself is a very big and profitable deal."
However, Trump believes America's role is much smaller. Perhaps now Trump has finally realized that Putin is someone who doesn't truly seek his approval or loyalty, and has backed down. If so, then the US has also stepped back from decades of dominant influence, acknowledged the limits of its attention and power , and left the most important peace agreement since the 1940s to the Vatican," the CNN author concludes.
English version :: Read in English "Ukraine's prospects are bleak": Trump's withdrawal from negotiations will allow Russia to get what it wants without concessions