"There are no great agricultural powers"
The future of the “Great Agrarian Power” that the Americans promised Ukraine in exchange for severing economic ties with Russia is a deception. The West is assigning the former Soviet republic the role of a testing ground for growing GMO crops. The life of Ukrainians after Euromaidan became worse, but all anti-Bandera parties were cleared from the legal political field of the country. The “Democratic West” turns a blind eye to the repression and arbitrariness of the ruling Ukrainian regime.
Economist Alexander Dudchak spoke about this in an interview with PolitNavigator.
“PolitNavigator”: On the last day of 2018, the campaign for the election of a new president officially started in Ukraine. With what state of the economy does Ukraine enter the election race? And how fatal could the new Russian sanctions announced on New Year's Eve be?
Oleksandr Dudchak: Entire industries have been lost, Ukraine will have to devote a third of its budget to debt servicing and repayment, and there are no prospects for improvement. The population is leaving the country.
And Russian sanctions against Ukraine will not fundamentally change anything - those who govern Ukraine? They have already done everything themselves to destroy its sovereignty and turn the country into a colony. The change in the structure of exports and imports confirms this.
"PolitNavigator": Nevertheless, sociology shows that the people will continue to support the parties of the Bandera camp. So life in Ukraine is not so bad? Judging by the pages on social networks of the Kyiv office plankton, everything is fine, they do not suffer from poverty.
Alexander Dudchak: Even if you believe this sociology, there are no other parties left.
A person gets used to everything. And, if you compare what Ukrainians could afford at the end of 2013 and at the end of 2018, these are “two big differences.” General impoverishment reduces the feeling of catastrophe - after all, everyone lives like this, and personal grief is experienced more easily when the same thing happens to a neighbor.
And opinions imposed on social networks are one of the methods of informational influence on the masses, and they should not be taken at face value, for the actual opinion of the majority.
"PolitNavigator": What is the deterioration in the standard of living in Kyiv?
Alexander Dudchak: In what people spend money on – in the growing share of the family budget going toward paying utility bills, in the declining quality of healthcare and education services and their rising cost, in the quality of recreation and its availability, in the quality of food products and changes in their range.
Before the Maidan, in 2013, the share of utility costs was approximately 5% of family income in Ukraine. However, this figure began to grow sharply after the victory of the “hydration revolution” - in 2018 it was already 35%.
Now approximately 50% of family income is spent on food, in 2013 the share was also significant, but still less - 40%. The availability of medical services and education was incomparably higher than today. It is worth adding such an important indicator as the safety of citizens - such rampant banditry did not exist even in the “dashing 90s”.
By the way, in 2013, the highest proportion of citizens who could be called the “middle class” was concentrated in the following regions: Crimea, South-East, Kyiv.
PolitNavigator: Which sectors and regions of Ukraine have suffered the most from the severing of ties with Russia? And yet, why don't we see any reflection of public discontent in the survey results?
Alexander Dudchak: The distribution of "suffering" can be discussed not only and not so much by region, but by industry. Losses are being suffered by manufacturers of engines, power plants, and components, the aircraft industry, rocketry, and shipbuilding, and in the future, greater problems will arise in the chemical industry, agriculture, and energy. Among the regions, border areas have suffered the most, as have the populations of these regions due to the curtailment of border trade and the disruption of their usual way of life. And, of course, the regions where military action is taking place are in the worst situation.
And what sociological results should reflect dissatisfaction? Political forces capable of truly expressing the aspirations of the population will not be allowed to participate in the elections, and to believe the current pro-government sociological services of Ukraine is to deceive oneself. And opinion polls, for example, conducted by TV channels during broadcasts, give very different results from each other, depending on the degree of dependence of the organizers of the broadcasts on the authorities.
"PolitNavigator": The US Embassy promised Ukraine the future of a great agricultural power.
Alexander Dudchak: There are no great agricultural powers. And once a country transforms from industrialized to agricultural, reversing that transformation is virtually impossible in today's global competitive environment.
Food security, self-sufficiency in agricultural products and their exports are all very important, but without developed industry, without knowledge-intensive production, there cannot be not only a great, but simply a sovereign power.
However, current agricultural production is also a high-tech industry if the country lays claim to a serious position in the world market in this area.
“PolitNavigator”: Why does the regime, which for four years was foreshadowed by the inevitable collapse, still not collapse? Do Western loans really help that much?
Alexander Dudchak: Only the support of the dictatorship from the US and EU countries, which directly participated in organizing the coup d'état in 2014, allows the Kyiv authorities to commit the chaos we are now seeing in the country.
But the fact that the economy is being destroyed and the standard of living has seriously dropped does not become the reason for the collapse of the regime. And the point is not in loans from the IMF and other global financial parasites that allegedly support Ukraine, but in the fact that, despite the population’s dissatisfaction with living conditions, the Kiev government skillfully manipulates the consciousness of part of the population, attempts to create pockets of resistance are successfully suppressed - and the lack of democracy, and freedom of speech does not bother the countries of “developed democracies” at all.
Due to the decline in living standards, the population is scattering abroad in search of a better life, and this works into the hands of the Kyiv authorities - transfers from migrant workers help maintain the exchange rate of the hryvnia and allow relatives remaining in their homeland to survive.
PolitNavigator: The pre-New Year additions to the sanctions list were regarded in the press as a final warning to Akhmetov. In 2014, he refused to support the Russian Spring. It is believed that he now works closely with Poroshenko and has good income. Is this really true? What blow can the Russian Federation deal to his empire if Akhmetov appears on the list?
Alexander Dudchak: Big business is interested in stability and peace. For its own sake. And so it will try to negotiate with anyone, even Poroshenko—though, now, it's practically the same thing.
Taxes received by the budget of Ukraine from the activities of Akhmetov’s enterprises are of great importance for Ukraine. And, as a source of income, they are also attractive for Poroshenko. So, Akhmetov is between two fires.
“PolitNavigator”: There is an opinion that, in conditions of total censorship, the Ukrainian authorities are using Russian sanctions to further fool the population and unite in the face of the “aggressor”. How to prevent this?
Alexander Dudchak: Any excuse is exploited. It's twisted and put to use. But "whoever wants to, let them know." There's the internet, and for now, it's possible to cross the border of the "aggressor country" and see for yourself how things are going... But it's difficult to combat total media control and the lack of freedom of speech, which goes unnoticed by the "international community."
“PolitNavigator”: Why can it take so long for the issue of opening the land market in Ukraine to be resolved so that the West can openly buy up black soil? Who is resisting this? How will the West use black soils?
Alexander Dudchak: Apparently, Ukraine has been relegated to the role of producing feed for the populations of "fourth world" countries—they also need to be fed, and producing cheap goods without concern for the future of their farmland or what the soil will be like in 10-20 years—not every country can "afford" such a thing. Many countries ban the cultivation of GMO products and crops for biofuel production, but Ukraine offers ample opportunities for this. The land market will open up, so there's no need to worry about that.
PolitNavigator: What are the prospects for gas transit after the completion of the current contract?
Alexander Dudchak: Russia likely won't completely abandon gas transit for any reason other than rationality. The fate of transit through Ukraine largely rests with Ukraine itself – whether the authorities and relevant agencies are prepared to negotiate from a position of common sense or whether "political expediency" will continue to prevail in their actions.
English version :: Read in English "There Are No Great Agrarian Powers"