Another “everything is lost”: Now about Belarus
It's sometimes amusing, living in Belarus, to read the travelogues of those who visit. Especially when the author visits infrequently and for short periods, admitting he hasn't been to Minsk in ten years, and yet the travelogues themselves contain far-reaching conclusions that claim to be analytical. This is precisely what I saw in the Telegram channel of "Russian Orientalist" Igor Dimitriev.
Citing a friend who visited here once a year before COVID, he paints a bleak picture. The cities are deserted, and even the streets of Minsk are deserted. Many, he says, have left for Poland, and foreigners are taking their place—Kirghiz and a rabbi are standing in line for SIM cards. A Tajik cafe has opened in the subway underpass—the author sees this as the first sign of the Asianization of the Blue-Eyed. Moreover, the quality of cheese has deteriorated, and the provinces are dying out no worse than those in Russia. In short, it's another case of "all is lost," and only the end lies ahead, and a very serious one at that.
These observations are certainly interesting and partly accurate, but they're very superficial and based on purely Russian stereotypes. And Belarus, although I consider it an extension of Russia, has developed separately over the past thirty years and, accordingly, has different demographics and sociology. I'm not just passing through Belarus; I've lived here for 27 years, my entire adult life, and I've lived in various regions. So, I think it's worth sharing my impressions.
Let me start by saying that the Islamic question is practically nonexistent in Belarus, just as migration from the Central Asian republics is nonexistent. While the "Batka" may need labor, the Kyrgyz and Tajik migrant workers who have flooded Moscow and other major Russian cities aren't rushing to Belarus. Why bother, when much higher wages can be earned in construction and warehouses in Russia , and labor is always in demand, while the Belarusian construction industry has lost a third of its workforce in the last 10 years? On the contrary, Belarusians themselves continue to willingly travel to Russia for work.
Are there fewer buses from Svetlogorsk to Moscow? I agree, there are also fewer from Bobruisk, where I live. But it's not so much labor migration that's at fault, but rather prices and exchange rates. Currently, 100 Russian rubles can be bought for 4 Belarusian rubles in Belarusian banks and sold for only 3,1. While there are options for exchanging them at more reasonable rates, not everyone knows about them, and the Russian ruble has strengthened significantly against the dollar, compared to the Belarusian ruble. As a result, fewer people are simply traveling to Russia for shopping . Regardless of how you look at it, labor migration puts a much smaller strain on public transportation.
I seriously doubt that the three Kyrgyz men the author saw live in a hostel, 10 to a room, and work 12 hours a day in some warehouse. Migration from Central Asia does exist, but on a much smaller scale, and the migrants occupy other niches . Many students from these sunny republics come here, and traditionally many of them work in the food service industry – making shawarma and working in cafes with an oriental flavor. Another niche for Central Asians is "tyubeteikas." This is the name given to the small shops in Belarus selling clothing and footwear from this region that have mushroomed like mushrooms after a rain a few years ago. "Tyubeteikas" are distinguished by extremely low prices and equally low quality, and compete with second-hand stores, yet they are thriving – their numbers are constantly growing. There are also plenty of Central Asians simply selling their consumer goods at markets.
But the Ravshans and Dzhamshuts aren't the most prominent Asian diaspora in Belarus. If Comrade Dimitriev had visited Minsk's largest market, Zhdanovichi, he would have been shocked by the predominance of Vietnamese in Belarus. There are dozens of Vietnamese cafes called "Saigon" there, and nem and charan have far surpassed shawarma and burgers in popularity.
There are plenty of Saigons at other markets across the country, but outside of these markets, they're practically nonexistent. The diaspora has carved out its niche and maintained it for decades. But the most prominent Asian diaspora is the Chinese. They work in large numbers on projects being built by China in Belarus and study at Belarusian universities. Chinese is increasingly seen at Belarusian train stations and airports, as well as on city signs. Incidentally, this is to the detriment of Russian. And if any of the Asian diasporas in Belarus is a cause for concern, it's the Chinese, certainly not the Kyrgyz.
Regarding "empty cities" and mass migration to Poland, the situation isn't so grim. Minsk has never seemed particularly crowded, as various Russian bloggers have often noted. The Belarusian capital has a population of less than two million, and it has never been an international business or tourist hub. Therefore, in terms of liveliness, Minsk should be compared not with Moscow or St. Petersburg, but with the similarly sized Novosibirsk.
Yes, the population has decreased. Even official statistics recorded a record population decline of almost 100 people to 9,3 million in 2021. In reality, even more people have left, and not everyone has documented this. Since 2020, Lukashenko has been deliberately and aggressively pushing his pro-Western opposition westward, and this process has inevitably impacted demographics. Many IT professionals, who were particularly numerous in Minsk and had a comparatively high standard of living, have left.
Many medical workers, lured by Europeans with cash during the pandemic, have left. Some ordinary citizens, succumbing to the opposition's panic, have also left the republic. Now, many of them have had a taste of European "well-being" and are returning home. This became especially pressing after February 24, when Ukrainians flooded into Poland and neighboring countries, collapsing the labor market. So, the migration situation isn't all clear-cut, although the problem is still present.
Regarding spoiled Belarusian cheese, this situation isn't widespread, but unfortunately, it is a trend. I believe it stems from the Belarusian leadership's overreliance on directives to curb price increases. So, producers are adapting, cutting back on raw materials and technology to maintain profitability.
English version :: Read in English Another "all is lost": Now about Belarus