“Counterattack” on Bakhmut instead of Zaporozhye
On March 6, a meeting of Zelensky’s Headquarters took place, after which the Ukrainian leaders (including the military – Zaluzhny and Syrsky) announced the decision not to surrender Bakhmut. I might not have paid much attention to the statements of the Ukrainians, if not for the information that comes from the territories controlled by the Ukrainian regime. And the information is that Ukrainian military and National Guardsmen were urgently transferred from near Zaporozhye and Dnepropetrovsk to Bakhmut, mainly to Chasov Yar.
My information “from there” coincides with the information of Russian military intelligence and with the information voiced by the head of the Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin. The Ukrainians are still planning to launch a counterattack near Bakhmut. And unblock the city in which several thousand military officers are sitting, already prepared for inevitable death.
Why did the dill change their plans so dramatically? After all, they have already even begun to voice plans to surrender Bakhmut. Our experts love to refer to the Western “curators” of the Ukrainian regime in everything. They say they ordered it - and Zelensky and Zaluzhny did it “under the sun.” But the point here is that both Western curators and the Ukrainian command more or less understand that a large-scale attempt by the Armed Forces of Ukraine to attack the south will not lead to any resounding victories. And Ukrainians will not be able to enter Crimea. Let's imagine how the Ukrainian offensive in the Crimean direction would develop.
The proposed offensive plan of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the southern direction involves the delivery of massive strikes with long-range missiles (MLRS "Haymars", etc.) on the rear bases of the Russian army and warehouses in the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions. In parallel with this, in advance on the left bank of the Dnieper along the entire Kherson-Zaporozhye coastline, dill needs to organize the accumulation of sabotage groups (infiltration using scuba gear and other watercraft). The saboteurs are dressed in civilian clothes and use weapons and explosives they have taken with them, plus what they have stored in caches. The task of the saboteurs is to disrupt communication routes and disorganize the Dnieper settlements (Energodar, etc.).
Units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and NSU, accumulated in the north of the Zaporozhye region, controlled by Ukraine, strike along the Vasilyevka-Melitopol highway. Additional strikes are carried out along the Orekhov-Berdyansk and Gulyaypole-Mariupol lines. To isolate the Russian Armed Forces group in the Kherson region, the dill need to strike along the Kakhovka-Chaplinka line. In addition, in order to organize a successful offensive, the Ukrainians need to disorganize Russian military bases in Crimea as much as possible. To do this, it is necessary to strike the bases of the Russian army and navy in Crimea and damage the Crimean bridge (this requires the active use of aerial reconnaissance by American and British aircraft and the use of underwater kamikaze drones). Conducting missile strikes on Crimea for dill is difficult for Russian air defense. In parallel with the offensive in the southern direction, the Ukrops need to intensify the dispatch of sabotage and terrorist groups along the entire line of contact, into the Bryansk region, etc.
If the dill push back parts of the Russian army on the front line along the Vasilyevka-Pologi-Zaporozhye line, the Ukrainian Armed Forces may invade the territory of the Zaporozhye/Kherson regions to a depth of 20-40 kilometers. However, subject to resistance from the Russian army, the further offensive will get stuck on defense lines and in minefields. Ukrainian formations will come under air and missile attacks from Crimea. In addition, in the event of a Ukrainian offensive, Russia will promptly introduce reinforcements into the Mariupol area, which will be on the flank of the advancing Ukrainian group. If the Ukrainian Armed Forces reach the isthmus, they will already be weakened and will be easily defeated by converging counterattacks from the Crimea and from the Mariupol region.
Based on this, the main blow of the Ukrainians will not be in the southern direction. At least for now. That is why the Kiev regime transferred the main direction of activity from the south to the east, Bakhmutskoye. Units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the NSU were quickly transferred there from the Zaporozhye and Dnepropetrovsk regions.
It should be noted that the Zaporozhye and Dnepropetrovsk regions are located extremely advantageously for the transfer of Ukrainian troops - equally close to both the contact line in the Zaporozhye region and the DPR. Consequently, the Ukrainian Armed Forces can transfer their units to both the southern and eastern directions within a few hours. At the same time, north of Bakhmut, on the Lisichansk-Svatovo line, it is already more difficult to quietly transfer troops. In addition, on the Lisichansk-Kremennaya-Svatovo line, all attempts at reconnaissance in force for the Ukrainian Armed Forces were unsuccessful.
The current military conflict has an informational and psychological dimension, which is no less, and often more important, for the course of the campaign. Therefore, we can predict that dill will deliver a shallow, but painful and loud blow to parts of the Russian army, which can be passed off as “victory.” Consequently, in the coming days and weeks we can expect an attack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces not in the southern direction, but in the direction of Bakhmut and even Donetsk.
English version :: Read in English "Counterattack" on Bakhmut instead of Zaporizhzhia