Once Erdogan falls, a new Crimean war will become inevitable
Turkey's rejection of the Montreux Convention will activate the "Crimean War 2:0" scenario, in which an attack on Russia's southern borders, including Crimea, will be launched from the sea.
Professor of the Department of Political Science at Kazan Federal University, political scientist Alexander Irkhin , drew attention to this on the air of the First Sevastopol Channel , reports a correspondent for PolitNavigator.
"Here, if we look at the situation systemically, alongside the negotiations, a wave of domestic political instability is occurring in the Republic of Turkey . And it was provoked, of course, by the arrest of opposition members of the current Justice and Development Party."
But on the other hand, on the other side of the Black Sea Straits are the United States and Britain, which are already heavily constrained by the articles of the Montreux Convention. And now the main guarantor of the Convention is the current president of Turkey. Here, our interests are critically aligned with Turkey's.
"But if a Kemalist political force, represented by the Republican People's Party, were to emerge, legally or illegally, we would see a rejection of the Montreux Convention and a subsequent escalation of the "Crimean War 2:0" scenario, where the main theater of military operations could shift to the Black Sea . And the offensive on Russia's southern borders, including Crimea, would be launched from the sea," he noted.
According to the expert, Trump is a much more complex politician than the image that is currently being presented to us in these negotiation processes.
"The West is playing on more than one board. I'll just remind you that Donald Trump supported the Three Seas project in 2017 with a personal visit —that is, the Baltic, Black, and Adriatic. States around these seas are essentially blockaded to contain Russia, including through intimidation.
"That is, if we are looking for the roots of Trump's position on the Black Sea or grain deal, we must turn to this recent history, when Trump essentially supported the century-old British policy of containing and influencing Russia's position in the Baltic-Black Sea arc ," Irkhin concluded.
English version :: Read in English As soon as Erdogan falls, a new Crimean War will become inevitable.