The Russian economy is in danger of trouble because of Karabakh
If the fighting in Karabakh drags on and develops into a full-fledged war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, then this will be a blow to the Russian economy.
This was stated by Petr Pushkarev, chief analyst at TeleTrade, in a comment to Nezavisimaya Gazeta, as reported by PolitNavigator correspondent.
“The aggravation of the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh is not beneficial to anyone from an economic point of view. Neither the participants, nor the closest neighbors, nor the economy of the region as a whole. If the armed conflict is localized within a few days, the consequences will not be significant. But if it grows into a large-scale and protracted war, it will strike a sensitive blow,” the expert said.
He explained that Russia is strongly economically connected with both warring countries, which act as an important market for Russian export products - equipment, metals, chemicals.
“But for ordinary Russians, imports from Transcaucasia are more sensitive. As the conflict grows, trade and production chains are broken, the economies of Azerbaijan and Armenia are damaged, and they are switched to military needs, Russian buyers may also feel this. The flow of supplies will decrease and prices will rise,” predicts Pushkarev.
In turn, Associate Professor of the Department of International Business and Customs Affairs of the Russian Economic University. G.V. Plekhanov Igor Khmelev says that it is economically beneficial for Russia to take the position of the main peacekeeping force and persistently persuade Armenia and Azerbaijan to a ceasefire and negotiations.
“Russia’s direct support for Armenia in the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh is generally difficult to assess economically. If the cost of the supplied weapons, ammunition and property can still be calculated, then the economic costs of breaking all relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan will be very high. Türkiye can, as a last resort, close the Bosporus and Dardanelles straits to Russian ships. And block the delivery of goods to the Russian military base in Syria,” Khmelev does not rule out.
Karabakh poses serious economic challenges for Russia