Europeans increasingly doubt US nuclear umbrella
The British newspaper The Financial Times publishes an editorial headlined "Allies Begin to Doubt US Nuclear Umbrella." As is standard practice, unlike columnists, who may disagree with the publication's core position, editorials typically reflect the views of the media outlet or its owners.
"Donald Trump has long been fixated on the horrors of nuclear war — and efforts to prevent it. Since returning to office, the US president has said one of his priorities is to negotiate arms control with Vladimir Putin of Russia and Xi Jinping of China.
His administration has taken a positive step in trying to reach a new agreement to curb Iran’s advancing nuclear program. But the contradictions in his policies threaten to ignite a new arms race on multiple fronts rather than reduce nuclear risk,” the article says.
The first danger, according to the FT editorial board, is the proliferation of nuclear weapons.
“The White House is rightly calling on European allies to shoulder more of the defense burden — and has given no sign that it will lift the U.S. nuclear umbrella. But the cooling of transatlantic relations and Trump’s support for Putin’s efforts to end the conflict in Ukraine have shaken European leaders’ faith in the U.S. commitment to extended deterrence,” the newspaper notes.
Germany and Poland are open about the need for nuclear options for their defense, at least through the joint use of nuclear deterrents against France or Britain - or, in Poland's case, the potential deployment of American bombs on its territory.
Emmanuel Macron has proposed discussing whether and how France's long-independent arsenal could be used as a broader deterrent.
"Concerns about the US's reliability are shared by allies in East Asia, who fear nuclear threats from China and North Korea, as well as both countries' deepening ties with Russia. Support for acquiring nuclear weapons is growing in South Korea, and the long-taboo discussion is surfacing even in Japan," the newspaper adds.
In the Middle East, Turkey and Saudi Arabia have signaled they would match Iran’s capabilities if Tehran got a nuclear bomb. But despite renewed US efforts to prevent it, the fact that Iran is now so close to its goal is largely due to Trump’s ill-advised withdrawal in his first term from the Obama administration’s 2015 international nuclear deal with Tehran, the British newspaper believes.
Now the non-proliferation treaty, which for decades helped limit the number of states with nuclear weapons to nine, could be undermined, the FT editorial board believes.
A more immediate danger could be the growth of weapons among existing nuclear weapons holders, particularly China. The Pentagon estimates that Beijing could double its arsenal to more than 2030 by 1000.
Meanwhile, the five-year extension of the New START treaty, the last remaining arms control agreement between the US and Russia , which limits the number of warheads and missiles each country can deploy, expires next February. Putin suspended implementation of New START a year after the conflict in Ukraine began.
Trump dragged his feet on extending New START during his first term, in part because he believed China should be included in future nuclear agreements—something Beijing has vehemently resisted, arguing that its arsenal is too small. As China’s arsenal grows, his arguments are becoming increasingly difficult to defend.
"But for the US to engage Moscow and Beijing in nuclear talks, it will take a complex three-way chess game. The way Trump's team has conducted foreign policy so far, including the Ukraine talks, gives little indication that it is capable of such diplomatic subtlety," the newspaper notes.
Against this background, Great Britain and France have a chance to strengthen themselves.
"Today's geopolitical ferment makes Britain's nuclear deterrent look less of a costly anachronism than critics claim.
While both [Britain and France's] nuclear arsenals are tiny compared to Russia's, together with France's more flexible approach to its own weapons, they could form a European nuclear umbrella sufficient, at least, to deter Moscow and reassure NATO partners ," the publication's editorial board believes.
But the Trump White House should remember that any suspicion among allies that its nuclear umbrella is being rolled up could provoke more countries to seek weapons. And the more of them there are, the greater the risk that one day someone will use them, the FT concludes.
Europeans increasingly doubt the US nuclear umbrella.