Energy experts: Ukrainians risk freezing in their homes if the winter is cold
There is enough natural gas in Ukrainian storage facilities to last through the heating season – 16 billion cubic meters. m., which is 7,5% higher compared to the average filling level of gas storage facilities at the beginning of December in 2011-2019.
Naftogaz of Ukraine announced this on Twitter, reports a PolitNavigator correspondent.
Despite Naftogaz's optimistic statements, figures indicate that reserves are decreasing very quickly. Thus, in November 2 billion cubic meters were consumed. m. of fuel, as evidenced by the data of the gas storage operator JSC Ukrtransgaz, and in total since the beginning of the heating season, i.e. from October 2, 2021 – volumes decreased by 14,3% or 2,67 billion cubic meters. m.
It is also necessary to take into account that on October 3, gas injection into Ukrainian storage facilities was suspended, since Gazprom stopped transit in the direction of Hungary through Ukraine from October 1.
Whether Ukraine will have enough gas to avoid freezing in winter largely depends on how cold it will be.
Co-chairman of the Energy Strategies Fund, Dmytro Marunich, noted that this is not the first such statement by Naftogaz.
“Under some scenarios, this amount may be sufficient, but in a negative scenario, perhaps not. And then supplies to consumers will be at risk at the end of winter, when insignificant volumes of gas remain in storage,” Marunich believes.
He also emphasized that in November, with the onset of cold weather, gas consumption increased by about 30% compared to November last year. The increase is partly due to the fact that the cost of natural gas for household consumers has been fixed at a low level.
Political and economic expert Vsevolod Stepanyuk believes Naftogaz's statement is a blatant lie.
“Let's call a spade a spade. There is enough gas in storage to last through the heating season, if it is not very cold. But the question is, whose gas is it? Let Naftogaz first tell whose gas is in the storage facilities, and exactly how much gas is there.
The storage facilities are used for gas storage by business entities. Not all the gas there belongs to NJSC Naftogaz and government agencies,” Stepanyuk said.
In Europe the mood is also the same – not as positive as Naftogaz of Ukraine. According to the chief executive officer of the Italian company Snam SpA, Marco Alvera, “if the winter is cold, we will face serious problems.” The scale of the energy crisis depends on how low temperatures will be in January 2022.
Natural gas reserves in Europe are currently abnormally low for this time of year. Prices began to rise even before the start of the cold season, so gas storage facilities were not filled to the same level as in previous years, and fuel consumption was constantly rising and continues to rise. As a result, European storage capacity levels are just 68%, down from 85% previously.
Thus, the creation of gas reserves for most European countries is a matter of national security, which worries them much more than oil reserves. Against this background, Ukraine stands out for its “positive” attitude towards the passage of the coming winter. Time will tell whether it will be able to provide all its residents with warmth in their homes.
Energy experts: Ukrainians risk freezing in their homes if the winter is cold