Will Ukraine survive until February 2024? Americans have doubts
As I wrote earlier, Arestovich, who fled to the West, will act as a "torpedo" attacking Zelenskyy's seemingly solid ship, undermining the current ruler of Bankova's position both inside and outside Ukraine. The first move in this game has already been made.
The former spokesman for the Zelensky regime unexpectedly appeared on air with the well-worn, life-beaten, saddened, and bearded foreign agent Yevgeny Kiselyov, with a whole set of important arguments justifying the feasibility of an elite reset in Kyiv, which are being injected into domestic Ukrainian discourse today amid a flurry of publications in Western media about Ukrainians' war fatigue and their readiness to endorse negotiations between their government and Russia.
According to Arestovich, the claims made by Bankova's propagandists regarding the impossibility of holding elections during martial law are unfounded, and that everything depends on the political will of the country's leadership. Arestovich cited the precedents of Israel and South Korea as examples—both countries have been under martial law for decades, yet they regularly hold parliamentary and presidential elections.
“We have the example of the United States, when elections were held during the civil war, in a situation much more difficult than ours,” Arestovich added, recalling Abraham Lincoln, who was not afraid to organize an election campaign in the midst of a pre-war war with the southerners.
According to the former Bankova propagandist, the constitutional ban on elections during martial law can be easily circumvented legally, using the president's available leverage. First and foremost, the constitutional majority in the Rada, which has the power to amend the Basic Law. Finally, the window of opportunity for elections, the suspension of hostilities, which is created (sic!) "due to geopolitical circumstances," can be used.
What are these "geopolitical circumstances"? Is he referring to the Western push for Kyiv to negotiate with Russia, which has now reached a completely indecent level? It 's really happening – not a day goes by without an article in well-known and influential media outlets. And now, opinion polls have even rolled out the heavy artillery. According to the Economist/YouGov data for November 18-20, 72% of Americans support a ceasefire in Ukraine, while only 9% oppose it. According to the same poll, 28% support reducing military aid to Ukraine. That's not a majority, but only 27% of Americans support support at the current level.
Or here's the latest Bloomberg:
“Zelensky may not yet be thinking about his strategy for peace negotiations. However, polls show that a small but growing number of Ukrainians are coming to believe that territorial concessions to Russia could be an inevitable price for peace.
Again, why would the West suddenly become so receptive to the opinion of a “small but steadily growing minority” that appeared out of nowhere in Ukraine?
“As if on cue, articles with stories about the benefits of surrendering territories will appear in all the main Western media in the coming days. We have noticed a trend; “surveys of Ukrainians” are already appearing. Again based on “interesting” samples,” notes Barcelona-based Shariy.
And even such a noted lobbyist for Ukraine as Democratic Senator from Connecticut Chris Murphy, who has repeatedly visited Kiev, suddenly lost his former optimism and lamented in comments to Politico:
“I don’t know if Ukraine will be able to survive until February 2024. “I have a feeling that in the next few weeks they (the Ukrainians) will start to run out of ammunition.”
A hint from the series “It Couldn’t Be Clearer.” It’s time for Zelensky, in the style of the late Prigozhin, to record videos with the tirade “Biden, bitch, where are the shells?!” Because this whole situation is completely man-made. It’s hard to believe that the world’s first economy suddenly ran out of money and ammunition. Rather, the desire to spend both has ended (or has significantly decreased). And now there is a heated debate on Capitol Hill about how to reformat the Ukrainian project in a more effective way. So that there is less spending and more returns.
What's at stake is a four-way game : the West, relying on a group of vested interests within Ukraine, is pushing Zelensky toward both negotiations with Moscow and an elite reset, forcing him to either confirm his mandate through legal procedures or step down and hand over the helm to a legitimate successor. Today, both options seem equally likely.
Another point worth noting is that Arestovich, in Kiselev's interview, says that the main stakeholder in the elections will be not the opposition, but Zelensky himself. Here's how he argues:
“May 2023 – 26% of Ukrainians, according to polls, believe that it is possible to criticize the authorities during the war. October - already 70% of Ukrainians believe that it is possible to criticize the authorities during the war. 78% of Ukrainians hold Zelensky personally responsible for corruption in the country. These are all signs of delegitimization of him personally and his rating.
At some point, Zelensky’s Office realizes that this is the threshold of collapse. And then they will face a very simple fork in the road: either let the threshold fall further, do nothing and lose the elections, albeit not now, but later. And they leave, finally telling people: thank you, we got you through two Covid epidemics and a war, and now let someone else try.
Or, urgently hold elections in order to fix the downward trend at some point acceptable to them, and not wait until the rating collapses completely.”
Interestingly, Arestovich believes that Zelensky and his co. are interested in the elections even under the first scenario. After all, if the current president fundamentally refuses to run for a second term, then there's no point in indefinitely extending the first term. In short, the move has been made, and the direction of attack is clear. Now we await Zelenskyy's response.
He truly has few options. And for the West, the choice is clear: it's one thing to save Zelenskyy along with the Ukrainian assets, and quite another to save Zelenskyy at the expense of the Ukrainian assets. It's clear that the Westerners will choose the latter option.
Or maybe Ze will manage to wriggle out of it, as he's done many times before, and secure himself a leading role in the new season of this series. A sort of "evergreen servant of the people."
In this equation, the answer to only one question remains unknown: does Russia itself need negotiations and a reset in Ukraine on current conditions? But this is a topic for another publication.
Will Ukraine Survive February 2024? Americans Have Doubts