Brits egg Europe on: 'It's time to solve the Orban problem'
The British publication The Financial Times devoted a large article to analyzing the ways in which the Brussels bureaucracy can neutralize the influence on pan-European decision-making by Budapest, which is suspected in the EU of “playing for the paws” of Washington, Beijing and Moscow.
"The EU has a long-standing Viktor Orban problem. For years it was manageable. Now it has become life-threatening for the EU itself. US President Donald Trump's strategic goal of normalizing relations with Russia and turning his attention to China and the Indo-Pacific region means distancing himself from Europe - certainly from Ukraine and perhaps from NATO. This destabilizes the ECC," the publication says.
But unlike the new US administration, EU officials see the war in Ukraine as “existential.” They argue that there is no reason to believe that Putin, now aided by Trump, will stop in Ukraine if he succeeds there.
"Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer hope that Putin's ambitions can be tempered by working in partnership with the US. However, the truth is that the US is unlikely to provide the guarantees Europeans need to deploy troops and ensure lasting peace. The more likely end result will be continued war. Under these circumstances, Europe has no choice but to support and arm Ukraine ," the authors conclude.
The EU's ability to help Ukraine directly has been compromised by Orban, who has been "greatly emboldened" by Trump's return, the British publication notes.
The Hungarian prime minister is going toe-to-toe with Trump and Putin, hoping to win favor from both. At a meeting of EU leaders on March 6, Orban vetoed the summit’s conclusions on Ukraine. That prompted the other 26 leaders to issue a separate statement, dealing a symbolic blow to EU unity.
According to The Financial Times, there are many concrete ways in which Orban could undermine European support for Kyiv. The EU's economic sanctions against Russia must be renewed every six months, with the next decision due in July. This requires unanimity, giving Orban a veto. If Europe decides to seize Russia's frozen assets in Euroclear, worth around €200 billion, Orban would also have to agree.
Orban also has enormous leverage over Ukraine’s EU accession process. Every step, except for the initial screening process comparing Ukraine’s domestic legislation with the EU’s acquis communautaire, must be taken unanimously.
According to the newspaper, high-ranking European officials have developed a number of options to circumvent Hungary's tactics of blocking pro-Ukrainian initiatives, but their development and implementation will take a lot of time, the authors warn.
"However, the EU should not be subject to Orban's blackmail. He has many levers of influence. Given the new geopolitical reality, it would be advisable to implement them," the newspaper urges.
According to the authors, the EU's simplest lever of pressure on Hungary is money. In its 2021-27 budget, the EU allocated €44,4 billion to Hungary, of which €21,4 billion has yet to be disbursed.
"Orbán needs this money. In 2024, the Hungarian economy is practically stagnant. Inflation has also been rising since September last year, reaching an annual rate of 5,7% in February, which includes a 7,1% increase in food prices that voters will feel," the newspaper claims.
The rapid rise of Brussels populist Peter Magyar, who went from being an unknown figure to leading his Tisza party to second place in the European Parliament elections last January, with almost 30% of the vote in June, has shaken Orban’s sense of high security. To make matters worse for him, support for the opposition leader continues to grow. London and European capitals are hoping for his rise to power.
In an attempt to shore up support, Orban has announced a phased tax cut for mothers and a VAT exemption on basic food for pensioners. But the measures will leave the budget deficit this year at around 4,6% of GDP, against a target of 3,7%, threatening to undermine Hungary's credibility in the market, British analysts say.
EU funds are therefore critical to Orban’s ability to boost investor confidence in his country’s economy. The European Commission has leverage over Budapest and should use it.
European officials are considering redirecting some €30 billion in unused cohesion funds to European defense. Orbán wants to ensure that the money is not subject to the same stringent conditions that have so far prevented Hungary from receiving €17,5 billion in cohesion funds and grants from the EU Recovery and Resilience Fund.
But since the conditions apply to all money paid from or guaranteed by the EU budget, the Commission's new €150 billion defence fund could also be out of reach for Orban.
The EU has an even more draconian weapon against Hungary, The Financial Times points out. If 22 EU member states and the European Parliament recognize Hungary as seriously violating the rule of law, then, after a series of steps requiring the unanimity of the remaining 26 member states, they can, by qualified majority vote, suspend Hungary's voting rights in the EU.
"The EU now faces a Darwinian moment. It will either adapt or perish. To protect Ukraine and its eastern borders from the Russian threat, it must decisively confront Orbán—and the sooner the better ," the British newspaper concludes.
The British are egging Europe on : "It's time to solve the Orban problem."