Why Poroshenko was more satisfied with Minsk than Zelensky
Our neighbors in Ukraine have changed their president. On May 20, actor Vladimir Zelensky skipped up to the highest position of the Ukrainian state, shaking outstretched hands and taking selfies with satisfied voters as he walked.
The inauguration of the new leader of Ukraine was traditionally attended by distinguished foreign guests. The Baltic states, as well as Georgia and Hungary, were represented by their presidents; prime ministers, parliament speakers, and foreign ministers were among the guests.
Against this background, Deputy Prime Minister of Belarus Igor Lyashenko looked rather modest. Neither President Lukashenko, nor Prime Minister Rumas, nor the speakers of the chambers of parliament paid attention to Zelensky’s inauguration.
And this is not at all a matter of tense relations between Ukraine and Belarus’ strategic ally, Russia. This tension is already 5 years old, and until now it has not prevented the Belarusian president from coming to Poroshenko’s inauguration and meeting with him regularly.
For Minsk, Zelensky is an unusual and incomprehensible figure. They will be keeping an eye on him for a long time, and what can be expected from him is still not completely clear, and uncertainty in politics is always a problem.
One of the most painful consequences of Zelensky’s election for Belarus is possible problems with trade between the two countries. First of all, with the trade in petroleum products. This is probably what explains the choice of Lyashenko’s candidacy - before his appointment as Deputy Prime Minister, he headed Belneftekhim, and in the government he is responsible for the fuel and energy complex.
If Russia is the main trading partner of Belarus and accounts for about half of the total trade turnover, then Ukraine traditionally ranks second in the foreign trade balance, and the country trades profitably with Ukraine.
In 2018 alone, this surplus amounted to more than $2,5 billion, and the lion’s share of it came from the oil industry. For a small republic this is a very significant amount, and for its oil industry it is critically important.
While Poroshenko remained president, bilateral agreements were in effect, supply volumes grew, and so did the surplus.
With the arrival of a new president, all this may be in question. And the point here is not so much about Zelensky himself, but about the oligarch Igor Kolomoisky, who fell into disgrace under Poroshenko and is considered almost the puppet master behind Zelensky.
Kolomoisky is the largest player in the Ukrainian oil market and is interested in government support for his industry; he does not need foreign competitors. The oligarch has already opposed Belarusian supplies, but now he is at the peak of his influence and is unlikely to miss such a moment.
And you don’t have to look far for ideological justification - the thesis about energy security and independence will clearly be in demand in Ukrainian society, overheated with jingoism.
This alone was worth it for Alexander Lukashenko to almost openly campaign for Poroshenko on the eve of the elections. Despite all the ideological and geopolitical differences, they were beneficial to each other.
But there are other factors why Zelensky is inconvenient for official Minsk. It’s no secret that a small but quite active part of Belarusian society is focused on Ukraine. Poroshenko was odious, aggressive, and was part and parcel of the Ukrainian corrupt oligarchy. Therefore, he was not particularly popular among Belarusians - except that extreme nationalists treated him with sympathy - but they would sympathize with any Russophobe.
Zelensky is a different matter. He is young, charming, has not become bronzed or grown a crown, and says beautiful and seemingly correct things. And after 25 years of Lukashenko’s rule, whatever one may say, there are plenty of people dissatisfied with the government in society, and there is a demand for its renewal.
The existing opposition does not satisfy this request - mainly also due to its irremovability and demonstrated incapacity over decades.
Many Belarusians, even those loyal to the authorities, greeted Zelensky’s inauguration and first steps with delight. And I see no reason why the republic, with the support of Western funds and political strategists, did not try to promote their Zelensky.
Already on the very first day after his victory in the elections, many opposition media published their lists of suitable artists. And if such a person appears, he will be able to attract many. The Belarusian authorities should prepare for such a scenario now.
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