The West is provoking a conflict between Ukraine and Transnistria
Tiraspol – Kiev, August 03 (Navigator, Andrey Safonov) – There are all the signs that the West is provoking a conflict between Ukraine and Transnistria, writes Tiraspol political scientist Andrey Safonov , former Minister of Education of the PMR, in his column for Navigator .
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Pliers for Transnistria
The coup d'état in Kyiv on February 22, 2014, which led to the overthrow of Viktor Yanukovych, signaled, as sensible analysts predicted, the West, led by the United States, moving toward the final dismemberment of the former Soviet Union. A key component of this strategy is ousting Russia from all points of influence, without exception. And if this succeeds, we can expect further attempts to dismember Russia itself, using the same method used to blow up and dismember the USSR.
It's therefore not surprising that Moscow's opponents are now actively destabilizing the situation in the Transnistria region, viewing the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic as nothing more than a Russian outpost that must either be eliminated or forced to renounce its alliance with Moscow and recognize the supremacy of Chisinau, whose leadership has clearly turned West. This, it should be noted, is happening despite the fact that opinion polls show that the majority of Moldovans favor the country's accession to the Customs Union.
Of course, pressure from Moldova alone, as the experience of the 1992 war shows, even with Romanian support, cannot lead to the defeat of the Russian-backed Transnistria. Given this, the West is trying to squeeze Transnistria from both sides, pushing Ukraine into a confrontation with the Transnistria Republic.
To this end, the US and its allies are now relying on information resources under their control. It's possible that tensions are heating up to a point where they could attempt to either completely blockade Transnistria from both sides or attack it entirely.
Ukraine does not need a conflict with the PMR
Ukraine has no need to attack the PMR , because Transnistria prevents Bucharest from establishing its monopoly on the Republic of Moldova. If the PMR hadn't thwarted the "great reunification" of Romania and Moldova, which was entirely possible in the then-current climate, on the battlefield in 1992, it's entirely possible that today, Ukrainian border guards "on the other side" along the entire Moldovan-Ukrainian and Transnistrian-Ukrainian border would be under the watchful eye of their Romanian counterparts.
I've written many times that Ukrainian volunteers fought alongside Russians on the side of the Transnistrian Moldavian Republic in 92, while over 100 Transnistrian refugees found shelter and shelter in Odessa and other regions of Ukraine . For provocations or war against the Transnistrian Moldavian Republic to be possible from Ukraine, Transnistrians must be portrayed as enemies of their eastern sister. However, from March to July 2014, all information fabrications intended to prove that Transnistrian "militants" or Russian "special forces" had allegedly infiltrated the Odessa region, or that the Transnistrian Moldavian Republic was preparing to invade Ukrainian territory, failed. Not a single fact was presented due to a lack of any.
Therefore, since early August, Russia's opponents in the West have changed their methods. Their actions have become more brutal and even more incendiary. The aim is clearly to create military tensions between Ukraine and Transnistria.
Perhaps, as a last resort, a war is being planned against the PMR.
On August 1, the 100th anniversary of the outbreak of World War I, reports circulated online of impending riots in Odessa involving football "ultras," as well as of a supposed attack by the Transnistria-controlled Moldovan Republic (PMR) on the Odessa region. Rumors had previously been circulated that an attack from Transnistria was expected between July 30 and August 2. However, in the end, naturally, no "militants" or "special forces" were observed rolling from the PMR toward Odessa. And they couldn't have been, since the PMR has no such plans.
But on July 31st, the current Kyiv government's main military information resource, Lieutenant Colonel Dmytro Tymchuk, entered the arena with his "Information Resistance." Some experts consider him less an analyst than a propagandist, completely under the control of radically anti-Russian circles in the United States.
Tymchuk said: “We clearly need to clearly define our opinion regarding Transnistria. For a long time, Ukraine actively participated in resolving the “Transnistrian issue.” Kyiv has always considered and still considers the PMR to be the territory of Moldova, but has always supported a purely political solution to the problem.
I think the time has come to acknowledge that Transnistria, as a territory from which Russia is conducting operations against Ukraine (remember how in March, it was from here that hordes of saboteurs were invading us until the border was sealed) is a hostile entity for Ukraine. It is a springboard for the Kremlin to operate against our country. And Ukraine must, in the long term, make every effort to restore Moldovan control over this territory. Without this, the PMR, like a Russian land mine right next to Ukraine, will continue to bide its time until it explodes."
What is this: a personal point of view, a banal provocation, or the West, having introduced Tymchuk into the information battle, begins preparations for aggression against the PMR? Let's not guess, but turn to the facts.
Misinformation to think about
The events around Russia orchestrated by the West must be considered as a whole . So let's be strategists and see!
Clearly with Western support, a civil war broke out in Ukraine , which Western "hawks" carefully fanned by forbidding Kyiv to extend the ceasefire at the end of June. This resulted in horrific casualties and destruction in southeastern Ukraine.
At the turn of July and August, clashes began between troops from Azerbaijan and Nagorno-Karabakh. What this will ultimately lead to is unknown. But it's clear that this is all for a reason.
And then Dmitry Tymchuk, repeatedly accused of bias and even lying, suddenly appeared on the news scene. This time, he became interested in Transnistria. Just for fun?
Now he's posted the following passage: "The State Border Service of Ukraine confirms that Russia is conducting aerial reconnaissance using army aircraft and UAVs from the territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and Transnistria ." It's an old ploy: juxtapose one region with another (Crimea and Transnistria) and present something that seems to be in between. Like, what I'm writing about exists there, and so does what's happening over there...
But, unlike Crimea, the PMR has neither conventional nor unmanned aircraft. Neither do the Russian troops in Transnistria —neither the remnants of the 14th Army nor the peacekeepers. And, of course, the Russian Air Force is stationed in Crimea. Thus, Tymchuk misinforms his readers without providing a single documented fact to support his fabrications.
About tourists and saboteurs
This isn't his first time, though. Here's what he reported earlier, almost a month ago: "According to operational data" from the "Information Resistance" group, as of July 4, 2014, approximately 3000 Russian army soldiers and 30 armored vehicles are concentrated in Transnistria, in close proximity to the Ukrainian border . Clearly, he lied. The Russian Task Force currently has only 1,500 troops. And it's been that way for many years. And no new ones are arriving.
The rapid debunking of these fantasies didn't faze the graduate of the Lviv Military-Political Academy. He's no stranger to revelations. Back in early May, he launched the following "sensation": "According to our data, up to 250 'Putin's tourists' and saboteurs have been transferred from Transnistria to Ukraine in the last three days. Their mission is to continue destabilizing the situation in the southern regions of our country. The peak of destabilization is scheduled for May 9." Naturally, this "informational resistance" also ended in failure, as no one had even seen a single "saboteur," let alone identified them with their first name, last name, and rank. And nothing happened in Odessa on May 9 either. Thus, until August 2014, not a single "Putin tourist" was found in the "pearl by the sea" or its environs.
Earlier, on April 14, the dashing lieutenant colonel had also distinguished himself. He wrote back then that over the past 24 hours, a mass arrival of athletic-looking individuals from Russia to Chisinau had allegedly been observed. "They are leaving Chisinau in an organized manner for Transnistria ," he revealed. Where are these "athletes"? Apparently, they're still "leaving"...
Serious people do not pay attention to “revelations from Tymchuk”. They are interested in reality.
Here is the opinion of Odessa Governor Igor Palytsia: “Everything is calm in Transnistria; no contingent is approaching or increasing there . ”
Moldovan Prime Minister Iurie Leanca assessed the theory of a possible "attack on Odessa" this way in the spring: "We are investigating this information, although even theoretically it has no right to exist. I believe these are just rumors started by someone who wants to further escalate the already difficult situation in the region."
It seems that as of the beginning of August we can already name the name and title of this “someone”. But we are more interested in those who are behind this “someone”...
Do not attack friends and do not please common enemies!
Apparently, we are on a course of isolating the PMR from all sides, so that Odessans and Ukrainians in general see the Transnistrians as their enemies . This option benefits both Western "hawks" who want to strangle Transnistria from both sides, and Romania and its pro-Romanian allies in Chisinau.
How far are they willing to go? For now, they may be talking about escalating the situation, but not about a quick resumption of armed conflict , as the presence of Russian peacekeepers, who would not stand aside in the event of a new war, is enshrined in the relevant agreements. In the future, if the federalists in eastern Ukraine are defeated, all anti-Russian forces may be "ripe" enough to attempt to defeat the PMR. Meanwhile, the fact that Transnistria is not interfering in the internal Ukrainian conflict doesn't interest them.
But here too, it must be understood that in the event of aggression against the PMR, the Transnistrians will fight both in alliance with the Russians and on their own. And the West is reluctant to lay down its soldiers on the battlefield without a guarantee of a bloodless outcome. This means that they may attempt to send soldiers from Moldova, Ukraine, and possibly Romania to the PMR.
But if, by the will of the West and fate, Ukrainian soldiers find themselves in the same trenches with Romanian soldiers, there's no doubt that Romania will demand payment. And what that payment will be is anyone's guess. Several years ago, Romania "squeezed" gas fields located on the Black Sea shelf near Zmeiny Island from Ukraine. Knowing the direction of Romanian expansion, we can safely assume that Bucharest will demand the ceding (in whole or in part) of Northern Bukovina and, perhaps, even Southern Bessarabia. And the United States, which values Romania as a crucial military ally in Eastern Europe, may well order Ukraine not to resist in such a case.
However, even for those who might be plotting aggression against the PMR, not everything looks rosy. Now, if fighting really breaks out on the Dniester, Russian aircraft will be able to effectively support the PMR by taking off from Crimean airfields. So, as they say, it's better to live in peace and friendship.
What's left? The PMR is in danger, but there's no reason to panic. We must turn the tide through diplomatic and informational efforts, uncover and highlight any aggressive plans and provocations, and prepare the Republic's economy to operate, if necessary, in isolation or semi-isolation. And, of course, the Transnistrians must keep their powder dry and practice "just in case" scenarios of joint military action with their Russian ally, keeping in mind possible attempts by "well-wishers" to organize a "color revolution" of one form or another. Of course, the current situation worries the Transnistrians. But even those who are plotting something evil know they could face a decisive response. They, the "imperialist warmongers and their accomplices," don't relish the thought either!
As for Ukraine, Transnistrians believe that common sense convincingly proves that practical Ukrainians have no need to attack their friends for the sake of the interests of our common enemies.
The West is provoking conflict between Ukraine and Transnistria.