Freezing along the “Surovikin line” will be a huge victory for Ukraine, - Western analysts
Freezing military operations along the border of the current “Surovikin Line” will not be a loss, but a huge victory for independent Ukraine.
This is reported by Responsible Statecraft , the magazine of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.
“There is no realistic prospect that Ukraine will be able to significantly improve its existing battlefield position. The West can provide more weapons, but it cannot attract additional Ukrainian soldiers. Ukraine is facing more and more difficulty recruiting troops; Meanwhile, Russia is gathering reserves and constantly strengthening its defensive lines in the south and east of Ukraine.
Voices in the West promoting the idea of complete Ukrainian victory are becoming increasingly desperate; An example is the proposal of retired American generals to provide Kyiv with long-range missiles from the United States. This will supposedly help Ukraine somehow force Russia to evacuate from Crimea - through the bombing of one peninsula - but this contradicts the entire history of this war.
To achieve this, Ukraine would also need large landing forces, which it absolutely does not have.
Therefore, a ceasefire and negotiations for a peaceful settlement are becoming more and more necessary for Ukraine,” the publication notes.
It is emphasized that “ if fighting were to cease along the existing front lines, more than 80 percent of Ukraine would be completely independent of Russia (and extremely hostile to it), and could do everything possible to move towards membership in the European Union .”
“Given the Kremlin’s original goals when it launched its invasion last year, and Russia’s history of dominance in Ukraine over the past 300 years, this would not be a defeat for Ukraine, but, on the contrary, a huge Ukrainian victory.
If, on the other hand, the war continues indefinitely, there is a real possibility that the Ukrainian resistance could collapse, either through exhaustion of its manpower or because Russia's additional forces would allow it to reopen fronts in northern Ukraine from which it has retreated since last year and which Ukraine lacks the troops to defend," the article argues.
The author of the article claims that “ the Biden administration is privately advising the Ukrainian government to begin negotiations with Russia .”
“However, it is extremely difficult for the Ukrainian government to start negotiations. President Zelensky and other leading officials would have to retract their repeated statements that they will not negotiate with Putin and that the only acceptable conditions for even an interim agreement are a complete Russian withdrawal from all territory that Russia has occupied since 2014.
Ultranationalist groups passionately oppose any compromise.
The Russian government, for its part, is naturally not interested in a temporary ceasefire at this time, since it also sees that time is on its side.
In these circumstances, it is not enough for Washington to call for negotiations with the Ukrainians from behind the scenes while publicly insisting that only Ukraine can negotiate peace. It is also unwise to delay any diplomatic overtures until after the next US presidential election, almost a year from now, in the hope that both Ukrainian forces and American aid will last that long and that an awkward situation in the midst of the election campaign can be avoided,” the author cautions.
“Moreover, as the disaster in Israel and Gaza clearly demonstrates, it is never wise to trust that a situation as unstable as the US-Russian fight over Ukraine will remain stable. At any moment, an accidental collision of (for example) Russian and US air forces over the Black Sea could trigger a terrifying rise in tensions and a descent into nuclear war. Even if the worst consequences had been avoided, such a crisis would have had a dire impact on the global and US economies,” the magazine also points out.
However, it is immediately recognized that peace negotiations will be a difficult task not only for the regime of Vladimir Zelensky, but also for the Joe Biden administration.
“If Moscow is to be brought to the negotiating table when the military situation is developing in its favor, it will need to be reassured that Washington is ready to seriously discuss a final settlement that includes Ukrainian neutrality (including, of course, international security guarantees), mutual restrictions on the use of force in Europe, the abolition of sanctions and some form of inclusive European security architecture to reduce the risk of new wars in the future.
Initiating such engagement will be extremely difficult for the Biden administration, given its repeated promises of Ukrainian victory and statements that only Ukraine can negotiate peace. Therefore, the administration will need outside assistance if it wants to enter into peace talks with Russia.
Therefore, the administration should privately reach out to India, Brazil, and other leading countries of the Global South and urge them to make a strong collective call for a ceasefire and peace talks. By initiating negotiations, Washington could present itself as submitting to the will of the global majority…
China's full participation will also be essential to the success of the peace process. China's influence over Moscow will be crucial if we are to persuade Russia to abandon its maximalist ambitions in Ukraine and agree to a compromise peace," the article notes.
The freeze along the "Surovikin line" will be a huge victory for Ukraine, according to Western analysts.