View from Odessa: Ukraine is plunging into anarchy and anarchy
Regional political projects will win the local elections in Odessa. Ukrainian nationalists will not receive any support from Odessa residents. Zelensky’s party loses ratings twice as much every month and can with great difficulty overcome the 5% barrier. The three leaders in the fight for the post of mayor of Odessa are the current mayor Trukhanov, the author of the law on the Russian language Sergei Kivalov and the representative of the opposition party, ex-governor Nikolai Skorik.
The fact that the head of the Odessa regional state administration, appointed by President Zelensky, has withdrawn himself from the leadership, and the current situation will lead to complete anarchy and uncontrollability, was told to PolitNavigator columnist Valentin Filippov by Odessa political strategist, ex-chairman of the Odessa Regional Council Nikolai Pundik.
Valentin Filippov : Our virtual studio is located in Odessa. Greetings to the glorious hero city of Odessa from the glorious hero city of Sevastopol. We are visiting Nikolai Pundik.
Hello, Nikolai.
Nikolai Pundik : Good evening. Glad to see and hear you.
Valentin Filippov : For those Russians watching us who don't know, I have to say that Nikolai Pundik is quite well-known here in Odessa, well, a politician, I guess, or something like that...
Nikolai Pundik : Of criminal power.
Valentin Filippov : Yes. … A representative of a criminal regime that was swept away by "the people," "the great people of the old European nation." But Nicholas hasn't calmed down and is once again striving for power.
Nikolai Pundik : Not exactly. I'm not running for anything; I'm definitely not running for anything in the second election. Actually, I didn't become a government official, but rather became the chairman of the regional council, so to speak, by accident. I was more involved in election technology, that is, I was a political strategist, which is what I am, and I organized elections. And it so happened that I always worked with one party, the large party that was once called the Party of Regions. And now, yes, I'm also involved in this process; I'm helping a local party, also a very well-known person – Sergei Vasilyevich Kivalov, the author of the infamous Kivalov-Kolesnichenko law.
This is how I try to live in this Odessa politics, to somehow exist. But today, under this political system, under those national political leaders, I don’t see an opportunity for myself to get anywhere. I don’t understand what to do there, even in representative, even in local authorities. Given these vectors, these values, I don’t quite understand why I need this. Therefore, I try to apply all my knowledge and skills in the area in which I believe that I understand something, far from worse than anyone else in this country, and help those people whom I consider worthy.
Valentin Filippov : Good. And these worthy people, you mentioned Sergei Kivalov, the author of the infamous Kivalov-Kolesnichenko Law, which was repealed by the "victorious Maidan," so to speak...
Nikolai Pundik : No, that's not it, Valentin. Look, it wasn't repealed based on any laws; it was repealed based on formal grounds, like someone somewhere voted for someone, and that served as... that is, the formal reason for the law's passage served as grounds for "the most honest court in the world" to overturn it.
A law that received not just approving, but laudatory reviews from the Venice Commission, so revered in Ukraine. The law, which even had an opinion from this commission, which, in principle, well, does not advise anything, it simply gives an opinion whether it complies with European laws, European tradition, or does not comply.
So, even then, the Venice Commission wrote simply laudatory odes to this law, saying that this is one of the best language laws in Europe, protecting the rights of both the national language and interethnic languages, as well as languages of national minorities, which, well, in my favorite There are only 133 nationalities in the Odessa region, so this problem is very big. But it was canceled on a formal basis, and today slightly different laws apply.
Valentin Filippov : And there's still no chance, through the courts, through the European Court, to somehow rectify this situation? Well, maybe it can't be rectified, but at least the Kyiv leadership can be brought to heel...
Nikolai Pundik : Well, let's put it this way: firstly, the issue itself has cooled down, very much so. Right? They've gone so far as to say that Russian isn't even listed in the Ukrainian language law as "other languages of national minorities," but, I repeat, there's no such heated debate on this issue today. Although I can give you an example of one of the private schools in Odessa. It's a private school, so parents applied for the language of instruction. I can't name the school; I don't remember the school's number, but take my word for it – there wasn't a single application from anyone wanting to study in Ukrainian.
Valentin Filippov : Well, we went through this in Crimea, and I must tell you…
Nikolai Pundik : Yes. Well, this is specific to Odessa, while in all other cities, even in Kyiv, everyone accepts this Ukrainization without complaint. Yes, in everyday life, things remain as they were…
Valentin Filippov : So, have people been broken or something, reformatted?
Nikolai Pundik : It's not that they've broken it. You see, how can I put it? What political strategists call the "electoral field" has completely changed today. That is, the cities, especially what all of Ukraine is oriented toward, primarily Kyiv, are currently 70 percent, maybe more, newcomers. Newcomers from the periphery—well, that's the fate of any capital city in the world, from Paris to, I don't know, the entire periphery is striving to become capitals.
But if earlier the capital, and Odessa, in many ways still ground the visitors, adjusted them to suit itself, then today, I will not say about Odessa, because Odessa is still a special, very European, in the broad sense of the word, city , then the capital, unfortunately, even with such a mayor, is becoming more and more parochial. And not in a good way, there, Sholem Aleichem, a Jewish Ukrainian town, which was also very heterogeneous, not just Jewish, but truly international, where on Saturday Ukrainians milked cows from Jews, and on Sunday Jews milked cows from Ukrainians...
That’s why I say – you can’t say that the people were broken. Anyone who lived in this culture like this remains in it. It’s just that cities are becoming more and more peripheral. Well, such conditions are created. In fact, the population of Ukraine today... this is not my assessment, you can just read the assessments, there, Germany, you can read the assessments of Israel, they are quite open, they are in their periodicals, they are based on, well, there are methods ... they estimate the current population of Ukraine to be certainly not 35 or 36 million, as the official authorities say, but 10-9 million less, that is, about 26-25 million, which is probably more true.
Valentin Filippov : So, practically all of our people have already left…
Nikolai Pundik : Well, if they really estimate the number of people who left, officially left Ukraine, they estimate there to be around 5 million, then you can imagine how much that actually is, most likely 2-2,5 times more.
Valentin Filippov : Okay. Local elections. For example, in Odesa. You say there's no point in participating. But the people, the Odesans, are actually waiting for candidates who represent Odesa. Who can at least somehow displace those endless "greens," those endless nationalists...
Nikolai Pundik : Valentin, let me tell you about the Greens, and not just in Odesa. According to some of our most respected Ukrainian experts who specialize in elections, the Greens probably won't win in any regional capital. Uzhhorod is a possibility, but as the people of Transcarpathia themselves say, that's not really Ukraine.
Valentin Filippov : Well, yes.
Nikolai Pundik : Right. It's possible they're somewhere around, well, tied for first or second place with another candidate. And they're definitely not going to win in any city with a population of over a million. I can tell you about the dynamics of our mood in Odessa. Late May, early June, support for "Servants of the People," or, more commonly, the "Greens"... why "Greens"? Because all their campaign materials are on a green background and begin with the slogan "Ze"—that is, Zelensky, Zelensky—and then there's "Servants of the People," and so on and so forth... So, if at the very beginning of summer, at the end of spring, the level of support—or, to put it simply, their rating, the "Greens" in Odessa and the Odessa region, was around 34%, in mid-summer it was around 24%. The poll I did at the end of August showed they had 14%.
Valentin Filippov : Well, that's already good.
Nikolai Pundik : That's already good. And the one done by, let's say, our electoral competitors... well, you know that in Odessa everyone knows each other anyway, and electoral competitors are a very relative term... there's a certain political force that just recently did research for official use; they literally finished it, I think, on the 18th or 19th, and they submitted it last Saturday. They already have 12,4. That is, if the trend... and there's still a month until the elections, until voting day... and if the trend continues, then the chances are very slim that the "greens"... Yes, they'll probably pass the five percent barrier. But with a very small result. Then there's another thing, I'll tell you about the "greens," that from my side, well, on a purely human level, I have a normal attitude toward Oleg Nikolaevich Filimonov, right? Although his political views, well, they are his political views. In my youth, I remember him jamming with a vocal and instrumental ensemble, that whole KVN thing—that's precious to me. Everything else, well, there are questions, but it's his life, and let him answer to the Almighty and to that court for his words. So, if the "Zelenskys," well, I mean "Zelenskys," without Filimonov at the helm, have a 14,3 rating, then with Filimonov at the helm, it's exactly half that. So, the mayoral rating itself—that is, they nominated Oleh Filimonov for mayor—you, as an Odesa resident, understand that Filimonov isn't just... well, his recognition in Odesa is 100%, right?
Valentin Filippov : Yes. But recognition is not a rating.
Nikolai Pundik : Of course. Well, nevertheless, recognition, today… in another time, right? Even five years ago, it probably would have been different… but, judging by everything…
Valentin Filippov : About 7 years ago.
Nikolai Pundik : Maybe. But with actors and especially comedians at the top… it seems the vaccine has already worked, and as far as I know, there are several other regional lists where they've tried putting comedians and jokers at the top of these lists—the result is the same. That is, without them, these regional lists have twice the ratings as with them at the top, although Zelenskyy's own rating, oddly enough, is quite high, at the same level as it was a little over a year ago, for example, with Yanukovych and Poroshenko… at the same level. Yushchenko's rating only fell faster, but otherwise…
Valentin Filippov : It fell sharply under Yushchenko.
Nikolai Pundik : Yes, yes. And so, basically, it's somewhere around here, because we simulated a situation where if a presidential election were held today, Zelensky would definitely win by a landslide.
Valentin Filippov : Yes?
Nikolai Pundik : Of course. For one simple reason – there's no alternative, none at all. It's clear that people are tired, and there's absolutely no trust in political parties. Believe me, these elections will be won, mostly by local projects, by what are called "regional parties." I'll start listing them for you – you've never heard of the vast majority of them, and you probably never will in the mainstream political arena.
Valentin Filippov : Okay, okay. But in Odesa, look, for me, Odesa is a separate state, so I'm a separatist, right? So, in Odesa, too, will only regional parties win?
Nikolai Pundik : Definitely. The top three places will be taken only by regional parties. Well, maybe… No, excuse me, "United…" what's it called? Opposition Platform – For Life?…
Valentin Filippov : Yes. That's why I wanted to ask...
Nikolay Pundik : Yes, they will be, well, probably second in the city, and maybe first in the region.
Valentin Filippov : I often hear from my friends in Odessa, when we talk, when I ask: “Who will you vote for?”, he says: “For Mayor Trukhanov, for the OPZZ party.”
Nikolai Pundik : Yes. That exists too. Although…
Valentin Filippov : It's not widespread? Is it? Is trust in "Trust Deeds" lower than in Trukhanov himself? So they want to vote for Trukhanov and some other party.
Nikolai Pundik : You know how it is... sometimes yes, sometimes no. Trukhanov is definitely the frontrunner in the mayoral race. But one of the frontrunners is Kivlov. These are the people who really... if Trukhanov doesn't win in the first round, then Kivlov will definitely make it to the second round. I can't tell you right now because, how can I tell you, it's not clear at all who's running. Everyone's already submitted their documents, but there's no list of who's registered yet. That's it. But Trukhanov is one of the frontrunners, and Kivlov is one of the frontrunners.
Valentin Filippov : Good. And Skorik?
Nikolai Pundik : In my opinion, Skorik's personal rating, I repeat, is lower than that of the party. It's a party, you see, that...
Valentin Filippov : Yes, it’s a difficult game.
Nikolai Pundik : Yes. She's more present on national channels. You see?
Valentin Filippov : Yes, I understand.
Nikolai Pundik : That's why Skorik has a slightly different starting position compared to local leaders who were on local channels day and night.
Valentin Filippov : So, you could say that today, roughly speaking, the leaders are Trukhanov and Kivalov. And perhaps Skorik is also joining the fray?
Nikolay Pundik : Yes. No, well, you can't write Golubov off.
Valentin Filippov : Well, for me he is a completely unknown person.
Nikolay Pundik : Yes, you must remember him.
Valentin Filippov : No, I remember him...
Nikolai Pundik : This is an Internet party.
Valentin Filippov : Yes, an internet party. But I can't wrap my head around the idea of him running for mayor. You know what I mean?
Nikolay Pundik : You must remember Darth Vader.
Valentin Filippov : Yes, yes, yes. But for me, it's the same as Pyotr Obukhov, for example, or Goncharenkin, who drives Bond the Taxi. He's coming along, promising bike lanes for everyone. I don't understand how the owner of a taxi service can promise to build bike lanes for everyone. They'll just get in the way of the taxi drivers.
Nikolai Pundik : You understand, this is the biggest problem in Odessa – bike paths.
Valentin Filippov : Yes, yes.
Nikolai Pundik : There is such a problem, but…
Valentin Filippov : Believe me, Odessa wouldn't be Odessa without bike paths. Even our Duke of Richelieu wouldn't have approved – how could it be without bike paths? Catherine the Great envisioned it… and the Cossacks, they only rode bicycles. Just wait, there'll be another candidate who says, "I'll bring Delfi back to Odessa's beaches!"
Nikolai Pundik : Well, I have to tell you... When they were pulling out Delfi, especially those failed attempts in front of a TV camera, you know that slope there, it's high, everything is visible from above, it was the height of the resort season, August... enterprising people even brought telescopes from home or somewhere I don't know. You could borrow 20 hryvnia for three minutes to watch the work. And when the cable broke, I assure you, I haven't seen it every time, but I did see it once, and it caused a storm of delight. Remember Mikhail Mikhalych Zhvanetsky's interlude, "The Pie Shop in Arcadia is Burning." And when the firefighters unwound the hoses and discovered there was no water, the spectators were absolutely delighted.
Valentin Filippov : And then people cried, probably waving their handkerchiefs…
Nikolay Pundik : Valentin, in fact, as I found out, they were going to talk about this, there, a person from TransShip, a company known throughout the Mediterranean, throughout the Atlantic, agreed on a price with them, they said: “Guys, no questions, we’ll solve this in two weeks.”
In two weeks they did just that, they dragged him away slowly, and now somewhere on the outskirts of the Ilyichesvsky ship repair plant they dragged him with his nose to the shore. Most likely they will cut it for scrap metal, because there is a lot of cooking... imagine, they were telling me that this was a tanker, that it was something... I was on all the broadcasts I was on, nationally, I said: “Listen, I’m ashamed to listen to this . A rusty vessel from 1977 with a deadweight of 1600 tons, and actually weighing 640 tons.
By the standards, I’m not talking about the ocean, but even the seas – this is not even a boat, it’s a boat, and even a very fragile boat.” It took 10 months to remove it from the breakwater. If, let’s say, after the “evil” government, people came to power, at first, who were unsuitable for their profession, really unsuitable for their profession under that government, then after, I mean Poroshenko and his camarilla, then after these they came even much worse. You can’t imagine, well, I live here, I understand what I’m talking about, and I’m not afraid to say it - the governor, we don’t call him governor, he’s called “the head of the Odessa State Administration,” what he does is not no one understands.
He comes to work, locks himself in his office, at 4 o’clock in the afternoon they bring him a stack of papers, he signs them. It is believed that he is in charge of the area. There are heads of district administrations, whom he appointed, who cannot get to him for two or three months. Nobody collects them.
Why am I telling you this, and how does this relate to the elections? What develops in this case? In this case, complete local anarchism develops. That is, local kings, local, I don’t know, leaders of public opinion, they very quickly realized: “Yeah, there’s no power.” The President, who promised, came, “Remove Delfi by the 20th.” They didn't clean it up until the 20th. What would have happened under the evil power of the governor if he had not removed before the 20th?
Valentin Filippov : There would be a different governor.
Nikolai Pundik : No. Believe me, he wouldn't have gotten off that easy. As I say, they would have driven him to the nearest dead end and executed him without trial or investigation.
Valentin Filippov : No, well, oh-oh.
Nikolay Pundik : I'm joking.
Valentin Filippov : If Viktor Fedorovich had been able to drive people to the walls and shoot them, then maybe everything would have been fine.
Nikolai Pundik : He was good with his own people. I repeat, under a criminal regime, this Delfi would have been removed within three days, and only with the help of obscene language from the authorities.
Valentin Filippov : I agree. Tell me, we've mentioned the Opposition Platform – For Life, the Ukrainian Marine Party, and "Trust Deeds," and we've mentioned that it's likely that regional projects will prevail... Who are they, the "National Corps," or whatever they're called, who claim that "Odesa needs a hero"? Nationalists have just declared themselves candidates for the Odesa elections and are very active on the streets.
Nikolai Pundik : I don't know if they've applied, honestly. Well, because I submitted our documents and prepared all of them, I don't know if they've applied. Yes, their outdoor advertising is up, but they don't have their own electoral base in Odessa yet. Well, maybe a couple hundred out-of-towners, no more. I'll tell you right now, believe it or not, but it's true that a political party like Svoboda is acting more moderately. And they're currently positioning themselves primarily as economic nationalists.
So far, of course, this is not perceived by the people. Especially here in the Southeast, this is absolutely not perceived. But I repeat, if the expansion continues... The younger generation, you can’t imagine, today in my office I was talking with very, very educated young people by today’s standards, I started telling them about Viktor Astafiev, they opened their mouths : "And who is it? What should I read?” And I repeat, among local youth it’s just a color. Unfortunately, Russia absolutely lost the war for these minds.
Valentin Filippov : And Russia has lost the war for young minds within itself. And you know, actually, someone once said something like, "If Pushkin had lived in our time, he wouldn't have been a poet, but some kind of beauty blogger." So, we don't know, maybe printed literature and other forms are really dying out, and someone will write a new "Romeo and Juliet," just in a different form.
Nikolai Pundik : A prominent Ukrainian political figure and political strategist, now sadly deceased, once said this: "I understand people who read newspapers very well, I think I understand people who watch television, but I absolutely don't understand people who live on Facebook, VKontakte, and whatever else is on Instagram. I don't know what's going on in their heads, unfortunately."
Valentin Filippov : Unfortunately, in many regions today, some kind of social network is the primary means of communication, the primary media outlet. It depends on the region and many factors. Because in some places, television has lost its relevance, and in others, print media has lost its relevance.
Nikolai Pundik : Valentin, I have an absolute, 14% archive of the Odessa region elections since 2006. Fourteen years ago, before the start of a campaign, when you're preparing a strategy, you study your capabilities, your resources, including information resources—how to deliver a signal. In 2006, 4% of people got their information from the internet. Should I tell you how many people there are in Odessa now?
Valentin Filippov : Well, how much?
Nikolay Pundik : 64. Yes. And from the newspapers…
Valentin Filippov : Well, newspapers in Odessa died a long time ago.
Nikolay Pundik : Well, I can tell you about the region then.
Valentin Filippov : In the region, it’s probably more connected with newspapers.
Nikolai Pundik : Yes, more – 4% of the population. 4% of the population! That's it. I don't know whether that's good or bad. You see? It's good for whoever holds or controls the button that turns all this on and off. In fact, yes, whoever holds that button... Our enemies have been buying up media outlets around the world since 1949. Whoever controls the information flow today controls not only minds, but everything. They can cause a coronavirus epidemic.
Valentin Filippov : Easy. Even without the coronavirus.
Nikolai Pundik : Valentin, the Ministry of Justice has published official data on the Ukrainian—whatever it's called—case, but not yet for August. For the first half of the year, when the coronavirus was already raging, the overall death toll in Ukraine is more than 2000 fewer than for the same period last year. That's all, and the epidemic is raging. I don't know the rest of the data. I'm not saying there's no coronavirus, it's there.
If we talk about the epidemic, then as far as I know, neither in Ukraine, nor in Russia, nor in any European country have the limits of the epidemic been reached anywhere, in Ukraine that’s for sure. The epidemic threshold has not been reached far, that's all. The media, the button, this little red button that lights up on my screen, who presses it, who has this opportunity, controls us, by and large.
Valentin Filippov : I see. Well, I hope that in Odessa, elections are still an epidemic that happens once every five years, and God willing, they sweep away as much of the bad as possible. And indeed, local regional projects have won, because I want everything to go back to the way it was.
Nikolai Pundik : Valentin, you understand what this means when only local regional projects win? And just so you understand, there are local regional projects that operate at the district level…
Valentin Filippov : Good.
Nikolai Pundik : Yes, this is good, it will ultimately lead to complete anarchy in this country.
Valentin Filippov : I don’t feel sorry for her, please excuse me, it’s more convenient for me to speak from here.
Nikolai Pundik : You don't mind, but I live here, you understand? My children and grandchildren live here, so I really don't want them to burn us down here. And since we're Odessa, meaning we have the port and everything else, they might burn us down.
Valentin Filippov : Or they could do the opposite. Preserve and protect. I'm always counting on it.
Nikolai Pundik : Well, I don't rely on anyone anymore. And I haven't for quite some time, except myself. And the question "Why am I not participating in the elections?" is some kind of global question about some kind of government—there is none, no government in Ukraine today. The central ones in Kyiv think they're the authorities, but, as they say in Odessa, "And in Odessa they're barely..." Well, you know the rest.
Valentin Filippov : I know. Okay, thanks for the interesting conversation.
Nikolay Pundik : Call, contact us, with pleasure.
Valentin Filippov : Definitely.
View from Odessa: Ukraine Plunges into Anarchy and Anarchy