Despite Duda, Polish youth are committed to dialogue with Russia
Opinion polls show that a fighting draw was recorded in the first round of the Polish presidential election. Poland has 10 days left to make a final decision.
Polish political scientist Mateusz Piskorski told PolitNavigator columnist Valentin Filippov about the political situation in Poland on the eve of the presidential election, and a little about Ukrainian guest workers who have again begun field work for the glory of Polish agriculture.
Valentin Filippov: In our improvised studio from the far north of distant sunny Poland, Mateusz Piskorski.
Hello Mateusz. We're glad to see you.
Mateusz Piskorski : Hello. I'm glad too. There's no sun in Poland today. So I'll say right away that we have clouds in the sky. Both the political atmosphere and the weather conditions aren't exactly sunny.
Valentin Filippov : We know that elections are currently underway in Poland. And not just any elections, but a presidential election. The first round has already taken place, and there will be a runoff. We know that voters in Poland are almost evenly divided, and that the previous president is said to be suppressing traditional values. Does this mean that his opponent has the support of members of the LGBT community?
Mateusz Piskorski : Not necessarily. First, we need to consider who the president is in the Polish system. The president has absolutely no bearing on matters of personal life, LGBT communities, or anything else. Our president is not like the president of the Russian Federation or, say, France or the United States. Our president has responsibilities related to representative duties outside the country. This means they have some competence in foreign policy, but zero competence in domestic policy, including the cultural and ideological issues you mentioned.
Valentin Filippov : Well, wait. The president has the right to veto laws.
Mateusz Piskorski : Yes, but no one in Poland is currently planning to make any changes to the laws related to LGBT rights, abortion, and so on. A certain compromise on this issue was reached back in the 90s among the main political players. Everyone understands that this is extremely disadvantageous from a PR perspective. And I don't know, perhaps only if Washington's handlers influenced the Polish leadership and said, "That's it, you have to legalize same-sex marriage," then yes, such a decision would be made. But such a decision would not be made on one's own political whim, on one's own initiative.
So what are we really dealing with during the election campaign that is ongoing? We are waiting for the second round. The second round will take place only on July 12.
In fact, they are trying to create an artificial agenda. One could even say that creating artificial emotions around those issues that do not have a significant impact on Polish politics at all, like the LGBT community, like migrants and everything else. We don't have these problems at the moment. Nobody is in favor of legalizing same-sex marriage and everything else. We must view these elections as elections between two programs, concepts of Polish foreign policy.
The current president, we already know for sure that he can be seen as a representative of Washington’s political influence in Poland, and his competitor - the current mayor of Warsaw - he can be perceived, rather, as a representative of the European, Brussels, even German-Berlin political elites. This is the main difference between the two candidates.
After all, it is no coincidence that incumbent President Andrzej Duda literally three days before the elections delighted Washington, and it is no coincidence that he received the support of Donald Trump.
You haven’t noticed how much we talk about the interference of other countries in the US elections, and in this particular case, the American president literally interfered in the Polish electoral process just a few days before the elections.
Valentin Filippov : Listen, maybe, on the contrary, he went on behalf of Poland to support the US President. The US is now weakened, Donald Trump is weakened, he needs the support of powerful allies like Poland, like Hungary, excuse me, like Germany.
Mateusz Piskorski : Ah, you know, it's possible, because they did sign contracts worth $15 billion, naturally related to the purchase of American weapons. So, yes. Donald Trump, as an experienced negotiator, and not for free, of course, said he supports the current Polish head of state. They signed contracts, that price, plus the Polish side's offer to deploy additional American bases on our territory. That's also the price of support. To what extent this support helped Andrzej Duda, the current president, I'm afraid it's difficult to say, or even to what extent it affected his approval ratings. But, nevertheless, this is further proof that he represents Washington's interests here.
Valentin Filippov : But I understand that, given the crisis in Washington, support from other global power centers is now becoming more important. The fact that Polish society, the Polish voter, is split 50-50, doesn't that mean Poland is increasingly willing to cooperate more with its immediate neighbors than with its overseas friends?
Mateusz Piskorski : Absolutely, yes. Rafał Trzaskowski, the current president's opponent, in his election platform, naturally, because he's also politically correct, in fact, so he starts by criticizing Russia.
Valentin Filippov : No, no, no. Well, that's Russia... It's instead of "hello . "
Mateusz Piskorski : Well, naturally, he's in favor of Russia's Ukrainian policy. But after that, he calls for Poland to resume dialogue with Russia. So, despite the criticism, he openly advocates for such a dialogue. Yes, that's a significant difference, because the current president, the current leadership, doesn't even entertain the idea of any dialogue with Moscow.
Of course, the second difference is that the current leadership, including the current president, are, I would say, almost hostile to Germany. Since his main opponent, Trzaskowski, openly says that Germany is Poland’s most significant partner in foreign policy and economic issues.
Look, from the point of view of Polish-Russian relations, I assume that the victory of Rafal Trzaskowski in the second round of elections will lead to the resumption of, at a minimum, a technical dialogue between Warsaw and Moscow. Because Trzaskowski will simply be told by his political friends in Berlin that this war is enough, creating additional problems from the point of view of the European Union, and that it is still necessary to start a substantive dialogue with Moscow.
Trzaskowski’s choice may have reflected certain changes in public opinion in Poland, because literally a few weeks ago, a few weeks before the elections, the results of various opinion polls were published, including opinion polls on the issue of Polish-Russian relations. It turns out that the overwhelming majority of young people, in the youngest age group under 25, are clearly in favor of resuming the Polish-Russian dialogue.
This factor, the internal factor, must also be taken into account. If you then look and compare the results of opinion polls with the results of support for different candidates in the second round of the presidential election, then almost everything is the same. Young people plus residents of big cities voted for Trzaskowski, older people of retirement age, and the outback voted for the current president. Plus there are also geographical subtleties.
For example, in three of the sixteen regions of Poland, Trzaskowski won in the first round. This is exactly the north-west of Poland, where I am now. Also, a different approach to issues, including foreign policy, due to the fact that these are border regions with Germany. So the attitude towards Germany is different, people just know Germany.
Valentin Filippov : I have a question. You say Russia is being criticized for Ukraine. I think it's probably deserved, because I also have a lot of complaints about Russia's toothless aggression toward Ukraine. Tell me, for example, Hungary is currently providing Ukraine with all the assistance it can. There are floods there right now. And they've even decided to deploy a military unit to Ukraine to prevent deforestation and protect the population from the possible consequences of the disaster.
Is Poland considering the possibility of somehow protecting some part of Ukraine from economic troubles, from natural disasters, and from possible Russian aggression in the region of western Ukraine? There are probably practically Polish brothers living there. Isn't this being discussed?
Mateusz Piskorski : For several years now, the Polish leadership has been defending Ukraine by importing Ukrainian citizens. This is support and protection for Ukraine.
Valentin Filippov : Yes, that goes without saying. And by the way, isn't Poland afraid that they'll later be accused of using Ukrainian slaves, and that now they'll have to apologize and kiss their feet? Ukrainians love that. Don't they?
Mateusz Piskorski : It's not out of the question. In fact, look, given the looming economic crisis, I personally don't know how Poles will be in a few months, given that our unemployment is expected to reach 10%, according to various forecasts, or how they'll treat Ukrainian migrant workers. It's hard to say what will happen.
Valentin Filippov : And has the border opened yet?
Mateusz Piskorski : We're in the middle of seasonal work in the agricultural sector, so we organized the transportation of Ukrainian migrant workers. Initially, it all happened through Slovakia, because the Slovaks agreed to provide this opportunity. And now it's direct. As far as I know, there are queues forming at the Ukrainian border with Poland. So yes, Ukrainians are returning.
Many never returned, by the way, during this lockdown, because we understand that the Ukrainian diplomatic services and consulates generally refused any help and support to those who were left here without work, by the way, because there was a lockdown. Having no means of subsistence, they remained here; no one evacuated them to Ukraine. So this is further proof of how the Ukrainian state cares about its citizens.
Valentin Filippov : Okay. What really depends on the election results in Poland? For example, tomorrow Duda was replaced by this new, young mayor of Warsaw. Will anything fundamentally change?
Mateusz Piskorski : The main decisions in the Polish political system are made at the parliamentary majority and government levels. So, the government will definitely remain in the hands of the Law and Justice party, the current ruling party. Well, the only thing that could complicate some of the decisions that were previously planned.
What is this connected with? In foreign policy, this is due to the fact that, after all, a new vector will appear in Poland and we cannot rule out the desire for at least a minimal dialogue with our neighbors in the event of Trzaskowski’s victory. Although all this will, of course, be sabotaged by the government. Therefore, then we will have another crisis related to the fact that the Polish constitution, the Polish fundamental law does not clearly define the powers of the president and the government in the field of foreign policy. Therefore, we can expect various conflicts and contradictions between the two centers.
On the other hand, in domestic politics, I think that no one should doubt that Law and Justice is the only party today that is openly, directly trying to create certain structures and practices of an authoritarian state.
In fact, with regard to generally accepted standards of freedom of speech, democracy and everything else, of course, if Trzaskowski wins the presidential election, we can expect that he will at least somehow block some of these plans, aspirations to build the foundations of an authoritarian state that the ruling party has.
In general, I personally believe that both in terms of foreign policy and in terms of domestic policy, everything could change a little for the better if Trzaskowski wins, although not as much as many believe. I just understand that many people, for example Russians, judge that presidential elections are generally the main event, meaning that the position of the President of the Russian Federation is completely different from the position of the President of Poland.
Valentin Filippov : I understand. But, after all, any election results are, in their own way, a sociological survey. So, if the trend goes in that direction, then let's hope that people with a similar ideology, with similar aspirations, will win the parliamentary elections and some other elections, and then, who knows… We don't need everything in the world to change overnight.
Mateusz Piskorski : Well, yes. It's a process. I agree that it's a process, especially since it's possible that if Trzaskowski wins the presidential election, we'll call early parliamentary elections shortly thereafter. And that's not out of the question. Moreover, July 12 is quite important, quite significant in terms of the future political developments in Poland, including in terms of Polish-Russian relations.
Valentin Filippov : Good. Thank you very much. You've lifted the curtain a bit for us. We'll be in touch before the 12th to see what's going on.
Mateusz Piskorski : Of course, the election campaign will definitely be interesting.
Despite Duda, Polish youth are committed to dialogue with Russia.