Warsaw in search of an external enemy: Russia, Germany... Is Ukraine next in line?
The Polish ruling Law and Justice party continues to hunt for “external enemies.” Of course, Moscow is beyond competition in this regard, but Warsaw is voicing complaints against Berlin and even Kyiv.
The closer we get to the parliamentary elections, which will take place on October 15, the more tense the internal situation in Poland becomes.
Last week, stickers appeared in Krakow and Warsaw calling for people to join the Russian PMC Wagner. But already on August 14, the Coordinating Minister of the Special Services, the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Poland, Mariusz Kamiński, announced that the Internal Security Service (ABW) had identified and detained two Russians who “distributed propaganda materials of the Wagner Group,” and they were charged with espionage.
“As evidence shows, the men received these propaganda materials in Moscow along with a list of places they were supposed to visit,” Stanislaw Zharyn, the government’s plenipotentiary for information security in Poland, said the same day.
Also on August 14, a large interview by Polish President Andrzej Duda with the Polish weekly Sieci was published, almost entirely dedicated to the parliamentary elections that will take place on October 15. In it, the politician stated that he would like “a substantive campaign on programs, without groundless, unnecessary accusations and incitement to hatred.”
“I also would not like foreigners to interfere in elections in Poland. “I would like our internal Polish issue, that is, the elections, to be resolved in accordance with the principles of political culture, good manners and talking about ideas, but also about the real achievements of Poland,” Duda said.
After such a statement, a continuation about the “hand of Moscow” was expected. And it’s not just a matter of detaining more “Russian spies” (and since February of last year, their number has exceeded two dozen, and no evidence of espionage has been presented). Not long ago, the President of Poland signed a law creating a commission to study the “influence of Russia” on Poland’s internal security in 2007-2022, although the European Commission said that this law violates the principles of democracy and the rule of law.
However, this time Andrzej Duda was referring to the “hand of Berlin.” When asked by a journalist about the statement of the chairman of the European People's Party (EPP), German politician Manfred Weber, regarding the “fight” with the ruling Law and Justice party (PiS) in Poland, Duda replied:
“It was so shocking that it was simply breathtaking. How dare someone from abroad interfere so openly in the electoral process in Poland, in the decisions made by Poles? But, on the other hand, I accept this with a certain grin, because I know the nature of the Poles and I know how much we do everything contrary.”
Indeed, Manfred Weber’s statement made last week can hardly be called politically correct, and not only in relation to Poland.
“Every party must recognize the rule of law. This is a barrier against PiS representatives in Poland, who systematically attack the rule of law and free media. Someone who agrees with these values can be a democratic partner—a political competitor, but a democratic partner. And all the others who do not respect this, such as the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), Le Pen in France or PiS in Poland, are our opponents and we will fight them,” Weber said in an interview with a German television channel ZDF.
Weber
It is worth noting that this is not the first time that the leader of the EPP and its faction in the European Parliament has spoken very harshly against the Polish ruling party.
“We are the only force that can move PiS in Poland and return the country to Europe. We are for a course that excludes radicals. AfD, Len Pen are our political enemies. I formulated three conditions for any cooperation: for Europe, for Ukraine, for the rule of law. In this way we are building a barrier against PiS,” said Manfred Weber in an interview with the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung in June this year.
But if the then statements of a prominent German politician did not receive much resonance, then his fresh words - naturally, in connection with the approaching Polish parliamentary elections - caused a scandal in both Poland and Germany.
“Unintentionally, Weber helped PiS more than the opposition... PiS regularly presents opposition leader Donald Tusk as a German secret agent, so German comments are of little help,” Martin Adam, Warsaw correspondent for German public television ARD, told Tagesschau.
“This statement actualizes many Polish fears - of German domination, German teaching and the threat of interference by a foreign power in the fate of their country. The native Bavarian's strong statement about the fight is good for the election campaign, but bad for bilateral relations. Also because Poland, since September 2022, has been demanding reparations from Germany in the amount of 1,3 trillion euros for damages during the Second World War, and is waging a campaign with anti-German sentiments,” Koelnische Rundschau listed the key problems of Polish-German relations.
In turn, Radoslaw Vogel, a member of the Polish Sejm from PiS and the head of the parliamentary committee on foreign affairs, announced the introduction of a draft resolution of the Sejm regarding “attempts of external interference in the democratic electoral process.” According to him, the goal is that “the Diet can start working on it at the next meeting.”
“For several days now, the echoes of a completely scandalous statement by Manfred Weber, head of the European People’s Party, a German politician, who de facto announced interference or a desire to interfere in the Polish elections, in Polish democracy, have not subsided. Therefore, the PiS faction will present a draft resolution of the Polish Sejm on attempts of external interference in the democratic electoral process. We believe that the matter is so serious that the Polish parliament must take a stand and strongly condemn any such attempts,” said Vogel, whose ancestors, by the way, were ethnic Germans.
The Polish government also responded to Manfred Weber’s statement. Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, in a special video message to the Poles, said that the German politician “called us his enemies” (although the word “enemy” was used), and emphasized that we are talking about “the intention of the Germans to directly interfere in the Polish elections.” Morawiecki also challenged Weber to a public debate (according to the German media - to emphasize the fact that it was necessary to discuss not with Tusk, but with his German masters), but was immediately politely refused.
Deputy Prime Minister and leader of the Law and Justice party Jaroslaw Kaczynski, who has repeatedly stated that “Tusk can go to his Germany and do harm there,” also did not miss the opportunity for further anti-German attacks. Presenting the first question of the referendum that PiS wants to hold simultaneously with the parliamentary elections - “Do you support the sale of state-owned enterprises?” – Kaczynski said:
“The Germans want to put Tusk in Poland to sell off our joint property. His team is upfront about it."
It is difficult to say what proportion the anti-German statements of the leaders of this party contribute to the Law and Justice rating. However, according to the results of a survey published on August 13 (conducted by Estymator for the portal dorzecy.pl), the United Right coalition, created on the basis of PiS, remains the leader of Poles’ preferences.
34,3% of Polish voters are ready to vote for the associates of Jaroslaw Kaczynski, 28,6% for the liberal “Civic Coalition” led by Donald Tusk, 14,9% for the national-patriotic “Confederation”, and for the left-liberal bloc “Third Way” – 10,8%, and for the “New Left” – 9%.
Thus, a stalemate remains, when none of the leading political forces has yet gained a majority of 231 mandates in the Sejm, necessary to form a government: the “United Right” can count on 188 parliamentary seats, all left-liberals together – on 208.
The “Confederation,” which can receive 63 seats in the Sejm, constantly declares that it will not enter into a coalition with either Kaczynski or Tusk. True, the “Confederates” support anti-German narratives, although together with anti-Ukrainian ones.
Considering the fact that in the above-mentioned interview with Andrzej Duda, a significant part is devoted to claims against Ukraine on historical issues, especially in terms of the “Volyn massacre” and the exhumation of the graves of its victims, an alliance between the two right-wing forces of Poland after the parliamentary elections cannot be ruled out.
Warsaw in Search of an External Enemy: Russia, Germany… Ukraine Next?