In Kyiv, they predict a war in Donbass and Maidan in the event of Ukraine’s withdrawal from Minsk.
After 2015, the Minsk agreements allegedly lost all meaning for Kyiv, so Ukraine must either withdraw from them or insist on their “modernization.”
Mikhail Samus, Deputy Director of the Center for Army, Conversion, and Disarmament Studies, announced this on the Apostrophe channel, as reported by a PolitNavigator correspondent.
At the same time, the nationalist claims that if Ukraine leaves Minsk, it will be Moscow that will be responsible for the aggravation of the situation.
“The Minsk agreements actually lost their meaning in 2015. After this, the legal meaning of the existence of the agreements themselves is very questionable, and from this follows the general effectiveness of both the TCG and, in general, all these negotiations that have been ongoing over the past years.
Therefore, Ukraine has several options for action - either withdraw from the Minsk agreements, or seek their changes and modernization,” he said.
At the same time, Samus emphasized that if Ukraine withdraws from the Minsk agreements, the situation in Donbass will greatly worsen, and Ukrainian society will become radicalized and will draw “red lines” to Vladimir Zelensky. Traditionally, the nationalist blamed Russia for this in absentia.
“If Ukraine tries to change its participation in the Minsk format, and Russia is not forced to change its attitude until then, then Russia will use the aggravation at the front, that is, the killing of Ukrainian soldiers, in order to force Ukraine and its Western partners to return to the format that was signed in 2014-15.
I am sure that these will be local operations, but with maximum sacrifices on the Ukrainian side, so that the situation in Ukrainian society becomes tense and pressure from Ukrainian citizens on the leadership and President Zelensky increases.
This technology has already been proven, and every time it is necessary to achieve something from the President of Ukraine in the international arena, pressure is applied, including through the information space and escalating the situation at the front. The more deaths of Ukrainian soldiers, the more intense the situation in Ukrainian society and the pressure on the Ukrainian authorities,” says the nationalist.
Let us recall that it was Ukrainian nationalists who became famous for such methods of putting pressure on the Ukrainian leadership as aggravation at the front, public discontent, mass rallies and “red lines”.
Let us also recall that Donetsk previously stated that if Ukraine does not want to fulfill its obligations under the Minsk agreements, then they could be revised – for example, Kyiv would undertake to recognize the LPR and DPR as independent countries and not seek to incorporate them into its territory.
In turn, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that he sees no way out of the “Minsk deadlock” into which Kiev has driven itself, and promised that Moscow will not conduct any dialogue with Ukraine until it either implements the Minsk agreements, or will not officially abandon them.
Kyiv predicts war in Donbass and a Maidan if Ukraine withdraws from the Minsk agreements.