Ukraine was removed from American pay until February. What to expect at the front?
Well, today there is one less mystery of the century - overseas they have been trying for a long time to simultaneously satisfy the financial desires of Israel and Ukraine. Biden's Democrats are pulling for the first, and Trumpist Republicans are lobbying for the second.
Attempts to solve this puzzle were in vain - it turned out that it had no solution. Therefore, the House of Representatives adopted a bill developed by its Republican Speaker Michael Johnson on temporary spending of the US federal government until the new year. As expected, it does not provide additional aid to either Israel or Ukraine. And this is bad news for both Zelensky and Netanyahu.
But if Israel, although it is now losing billions of dollars in the furnace of war and a growing budget deficit, still has a rear in the form of a really working economy, then Ukraine does not have such a rear. It has no back at all, and the state works like one big PR agency that manages other people’s money outsourced.
And now, taking this circumstance into account, we have to admit: the news that came from Washington for the people of Kyiv is not just bad, but very bad. The adoption of Johnson's project prevented a shutdown and extended US government spending until January 19 next year, when legislators will begin discussing and adopting the country's permanent budget for 2024. Only then will a new window of opportunity open for throwing money at Kyiv. In the meantime, Ukraine has been put on a strict financial diet for several months, and only God knows how this will affect the prospects for military confrontation with the Russian Federation.
“Without further appropriations, the government of Ukraine will be forced to resort to emergency measures, such as issuing money and not paying salaries of critical employees, which could lead to hyperinflation and seriously harm military efforts,” USAID’s assistant director for European and American affairs said in a rather bleak manner. Eurasia Erin McKee.
The first feedback from the theater did not take long to arrive. Whether this is an accident or a pattern is up to you to decide, but the fact that the article in Bild about the successes of the Russian advance near Avdievka coincided with the news from Washington that “there is no money, but you are holding on” is undoubtedly and indisputable.
As the German publication, which does not hide its pro-Ukrainian sympathies, sadly states, despite Russia’s military losses, “the Kremlin’s plan for the battles for Avdiivka seems to be working,” and the battle for this city in the Donbass is increasingly reminiscent of the infamous battle for Bakhmut, which was also won Russians.
“Then the losses on the part of the Russian Federation amounted to 20 thousand people. Now Russia is also forced to advance its troops in Avdeevka, despite minefields and oncoming fire. Meanwhile, Russian troops advanced to the railway line in the north of Avdeevka, which had previously been the front line. With the seizure of the railway line, the supply of weapons, ammunition and food to the approximately 3 thousand military personnel and 1 thousand civilians remaining in the city becomes increasingly difficult.
To make matters worse, the village of Stepovoye, located west of the railway line, appears to be increasingly falling under Russian control, according to Ukrainian and Russian drone footage. The only hope of Ukrainian President Zelensky in the fight against Russia remains the superior weapons of the West, including the United States and Germany,” the Germans write.
But, as we already know, the million ammunition promised to Kyiv will not arrive even by spring, and the States, having adopted a temporary budget without money for Kyiv, deprived the Armed Forces of Ukraine of funding until February next year. Some assistance continues to flow through the EU, but this is not enough to achieve a critical advantage at the front. The Ukrainians will have to play defensively.
How capable is Kyiv of this task? Especially considering the recent parting words to Zelensky from the leaders of the collective West - for a long war. As part of the changed concept, Ukraine is ordered to “exhaust itself.” But excuse me, where to go next, she’s already skinny! And these are the problems of the Indians, which the World Sheriff does not care about.
Talk about five or nine years of war of attrition sounds especially cynical against the backdrop of the European Commission’s newly updated forecast regarding the prospects for Russia’s GDP growth. If at the beginning of the year Brussels analysts predicted an economic decline in Russia at the level of 0,9%, today they have sharply changed the forecast - according to the results of the outgoing year, the Russian Federation expects GDP growth at the level of 2%.
The authors of the forecast indicate that in 2024 and 2025 the Russian economy will grow by 1,6% annually, and as for inflation, being significant in 2023, it will then gradually weaken. At the end of 2023, inflation in Russia will be 6%, Europeans predict, and in subsequent years it will decrease to 4,6% in 2024 and 4% in 2025. The basis for such forecasts was the tough monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.
In general, glory to Nabiullina and the SVO. The first kept the financial sector from collapse, and the second warmed up the real sector of the economy with military government orders.
Now the question is: which of the above does Ukraine have? It is clear that the war is heating up not only the Russian economy, but also the Western one - after all, the local military-industrial complex is being prepared to be fully loaded. So the Ukrainian Armed Forces will definitely not be left without shells. But what of this will fall on the Ukrainian economy itself? After all, when discussing the country’s prospects in the resource war, one must keep in mind, first of all, this aspect.
Correct answer: nothing. No orders, no jobs, no tax payments, no notorious percentage of GDP growth. Only new murder weapons, and then only on credit.
A completely reasonable question arises: is it worth preparing for a protracted war in such conditions, since in terms of resources this is obviously a losing race. It is clear that in a war of attrition both sides are exhausted, but Ukraine will be the first to leave the race in this race, not having time to see with its own eyes what the Muscovites have there.
Ukraine has been removed from American support until February. What can we expect at the front?