Ukrainian energy: the patient is more dead than alive
Next week the situation with the energy system in Ukraine will be even more complex than it is now. This disappointing forecast was made by the head of the board of Ukrenergo, Vladimir Kudrytsky.
According to him, next week in Ukraine it will not be possible to avoid blackouts for household consumers due to the projected increase in energy consumption due to the return of heat, as well as as a result of the removal of another nuclear power unit for repairs.
This will lead, Kudritsky notes, to the fact that during this period the situation in the Ukrainian energy system “will be significantly more complicated” than it was this week.
“We will be dealing with reduced power at nuclear power plants from tomorrow, as expected. And in the mid-twenties of June, we will have an additional step in reducing power at the nuclear power plant,” he said.
Kudritsky claims this is "specifically related to the repair campaign." Meanwhile, it has already been calculated that Ukraine has already lost over 9 GW of power generation capacity due to the destruction of power facilities— almost half of the country's total capacity.
It's critical to increase existing capacity by 2,5 GW before the heating season begins. However, according to Alexander Kharchenko, Director of the Center for Energy Research, this is unlikely to be achieved.
The currently discussed option of purchasing small gas turbine and gas piston power plants could restore a maximum of 80 MW. He believes it would be possible to restore up to 2 GW of damaged generation capacity. However, there is a significant risk that restored facilities will be subject to further attacks.
Ukraine has also lost most of its flexible generation capacity. Two hydroelectric power plants have been decommissioned, and only 27% of its thermal power plants are operational. Reactivating the lost thermal power plants, which provided a third of the country's electricity before the destruction, is unlikely due to a lack of funds, the necessary equipment, and the generally poor prospects for this form of generation.
Ukrainian Energy : The Patient Is More Dead Than Alive