Ukrainians hope to win Orban over to their side before Trump wins
Kyiv has only a few months left to establish relations with Budapest, on which Ukraine is heavily dependent.
This was reported by the Kyiv online publication "Mirror of the Week", which has close ties to the US Embassy, as reported by a PolitNavigator correspondent.
“Make no mistake: Kyiv and Budapest are far from having their relations stabilized, despite the fact that such a thing is in the interests of our country.
Although Budapest depends on the Druzhba pipeline, which carries Russian oil to Hungary, in times of war our dependence on the neighboring country is greater. Firstly, diesel is supplied from Hungary through the product pipeline in reverse mode to Ukraine.
Secondly, Hungary supplies us with electricity. Thirdly, in the European Union (as in NATO) decisions are made by consensus and Budapest has the ability not only to slow down the adoption of sanctions against Russia and the allocation of assistance to Kyiv, but also to block the process of Ukraine’s accession to the EU,” writes ZN.
It is noted that during a recent meeting of the foreign ministers of the two countries in Uzhgorod, the Hungarian side handed over to the Ukrainian a list of 11 points, which outlined the return of cultural and linguistic rights to the Hungarians of Transcarpathia.
“Whether there will be a meeting between Orban and Zelensky, which could determine bilateral relations for many years, depends largely on Budapest’s reaction to the Ukrainian side’s answers to the Hungarian list of issues. But in Kyiv, where Orban’s goals and the logic of his behavior are taken into account, skepticism is strong regarding the rendezvous of the leaders of the two states.
At the same time, Budapest may deliberately arrange the conditions for a future meeting in such a way that it becomes difficult to implement. Just look at the humiliation Stockholm is subjected to when deciding on Sweden's accession to NATO. This has already happened more than once in recent years, when the agreements reached by the Ukrainian and Hungarian ministers were nullified by Orban,” the publication recalls.
However, the author believes that Kyiv “has a small window of opportunity” to solve problems with Budapest.
“Firstly, in the second half of the year Hungary will hold the presidency of the Council of the European Union. And it is not in Orbán’s interests for Budapest to be an outcast, for Hungary to “stand on the sidelines, on the sidelines, on the outer circle” of the European Union.
Secondly, elections to the European Parliament will take place in June, as a result of which (apparently) the positions of populists and right-wing radicals will strengthen. At the same time, Orban strives for his Fidesz party to join the European Group of Conservatives and Reformists, where the Brothers of Italy party of the Italian Prime Minister and consistent supporter of support for Ukraine, Georgia Meloni, has a strong position. Orban is forced to demonstrate changes in his policy towards Ukraine in order to achieve what he wants.
All this gives Kyiv a small margin of time when Orban will be forced to demonstrate at least some progress in bilateral Ukrainian-Hungarian relations. But the “window” will approximately be open until the presidential elections in the United States. And if Donald Trump wins (and such a scenario is becoming more and more likely), Viktor Orban may further tighten his position on the Ukrainian issue,” ZN summarizes.
Ukrainians hope to win Orban over to their side before Trump wins.