Russia wants not to overthrow, but to weaken Lukashenko – opinion
President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko decided to play multi-vector, which led to an imbalance in the political system in the country.
Director of the Ukrainian Institute of Politics Ruslan Bortnik stated this in a commentary to the Kyiv online newspaper “Strana”.
He got the impression that Lukashenko would try to balance between Russia and the West, alternately making bets and blackmailing one or the other.
“And the fact that he started this game, to some extent, led to an imbalance in the political system. Russia has fielded its candidate in Belarus, the West supports its people. Situationally, the West and Russia even unite informationally, creating a crisis for Belarus, provoking opposition sentiments, supporting protests and destabilization,” Bortnik believes.
At the same time, he says that Russia is not seeking to overthrow Lukashenko, since this could bring pro-Western forces to power, but is trying to weaken the regime of the Belarusian president and force him to make serious concessions.
“For the West, this is a game with the hope of reducing Russia’s influence on Belarus. The goals of both sides remain different. Russia will agree to retain Lukashenko under certain conditions, with deepening integration. The West needs to create for Russia in Belarus the same crisis that they created in Ukraine, or in the worst case, come to an agreement the way they agreed on Moldova,” says the expert.
The political scientist predicts that Lukashenko will most likely be re-elected for a second term.
“He will survive, but he will emerge as a weakened player. To be re-elected, he will have to make difficult agreements. Perhaps the new sixth term could be his last. And this whole situation will push both Lukashenko himself and the Belarusian elites to identify a successor and reformat the political model towards greater openness and greater competition,” sums up Bortnik.
Russia wants to weaken Lukashenko, not overthrow him – opinion