Russia and China establish a new order in Central Asia
The withdrawal of the Americans from Afghanistan is already ultimately leading to a powerful geopolitical shift in Central Asia, which means the establishment of Chinese dominance in the region in the near future. This is Beijing’s most serious success in territorially advancing its sphere of influence far to the west. Moreover, we can talk about the end of the era of “multi-vector politics” and the notorious “independence” of the ruling elites of the Central Asian post-Soviet republics.
The very defeat of the United States and NATO member countries and its consequences have not yet been studied in depth by many, since most view the situation in Afghanistan so far only through the prism of the possibility of a civil war and threats posed by Islamic terrorists to neighboring countries. This also takes place, but these events lie only on the surface, bringing real trepidation to the heads of the territorial entities that arose after the collapse of the USSR.
In fact, the current hasty American retreat, reminiscent of the flight, first from Afghanistan and then from Iraq, leads to more significant changes and simultaneously opens a whole window of opportunity for Moscow and Beijing. First of all, as a result of the Taliban’s successes, all transport and energy routes to the south through the territory of Afghanistan, promoted by the United States and the EU in Central Asia, bypassing the interests of Russia and China, are completely destroyed. For example, the same trans-Afghan railway route to the ports of Pakistan and the American energy program CASAREM are hanging in the air and losing their meaning.
The second most important factor for the entire continent is the lack of alternative to the “One Belt, One Road” design with its transport, commodity and energy routes, within which the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) is organically integrated. This is evidenced by the sharp rapprochement between Russia and China, which is of a strategic nature. The epochal meeting between Sergei Lavrov and Wang Yi in March of this year consolidated this process and the contours of a new geopolitical and even military bloc, capable of coping with any enemy in the world, became obvious to everyone.
The current joint Russian-Chinese military exercises “Sibu/Interaction-2021” also demonstrate to everyone that the military-technical potential of the two countries is so great that it is practically insurmountable and is already a given in international politics. As for the threats posed by Islamic groups, Moscow and Beijing, within the framework of the SCO and CSTO, have already guaranteed the security of the former Soviet Central Asian republics by increasing the supply of weapons, training command personnel, conducting exercises and increasing the contingents of their troops in the region.
In fact, both powers are filling the vacuum in the region created as a result of the American retreat. Having fallen under the umbrella of Russia and the Celestial Empire, all these ruling elites in Central Asia will no longer be able to pursue the line of “Ukrainization” or freely provide their territory for NATO troops. Beijing has already told the former Soviet Central Asian republics in no uncertain terms that moving Pentagon bases from Afghanistan to their countries would be seen as a very unfriendly move with all the economic and political consequences for the latter.
In general, this can be considered as a positive process, since the leadership of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan has a sharply narrowed field of maneuver and it will no longer be possible to sit on three chairs at once and pursue the previous prostituted “multi-vector policy.” If earlier the same Astana (Tselinograd) 25 years ago proceeded from the fact that there were three or four international centers and it was possible to maneuver between Moscow, Beijing, Brussels and Washington, now suddenly one leg of this multi-vector playing table disappears.
Yes, pro-Western groups in the Kazakh elite still give the Americans the opportunity to host new “training centers”, military biological laboratories, provide warehouses for withdrawn equipment and other logistics opportunities, but such a line will inevitably now encounter serious opposition from the main geopolitical centers of Eurasia, pooled their capabilities. Therefore, Russophobia and Sinophobia, encouraged by the top, are becoming dangerous phenomena for themselves, since neither Moscow nor Beijing will now remain silent and are already reacting harshly to unfriendly steps.
And the overseas patrons and “guarantors” of independence from the White House and the Pentagon will no longer be able to help, since as a result of the American retreat from Afghanistan and Iraq, their nearest military base will be in Qatar. What does this actually mean? And the fact that the real winner is China, which, with its economic and growing military weight, will simply inevitably take all the abandoned territories. In particular, the same Taliban declared interest in Chinese investments to restore the country, and Pakistan actually joined the PRC as part of economic integration and general opposition to India.
Another very important aspect was that in July a cooperation pact was signed between China and Iran, which places Tehran firmly within the framework of China's Belt and Road Initiative and promises to change the strategic calculus for the entire Central Asian region. Beijing has pledged to invest more than $25 billion in the Iranian economy over 400 years, a scale comparable to Iran's GDP. In exchange for this, Tehran guarantees its partners stable oil supplies, presumably at serious discounts.
True, the strategic pact does not allow the presence of Chinese troops on Iranian territory or the transfer of any islands to China, but in reality this means that the Celestial Empire is buying the Iranian political elite, which in turn becomes a satellite of Beijing. Thus, as a result of these processes, the security perimeter of the external border of the PRC will move to the region of Turkey, Transcaucasia, the Middle East and the Persian Gulf.
This development of events can be called the largest geopolitical victory for China, which was able to push the border of its influence so far without war. True, there is a risk that Central Asia could turn into a raw materials appendage of the Celestial Empire, but now much will depend on the sanity of the ruling elites. Since the only way to mitigate these consequences will be only accelerated production and economic cooperation with Russia, which can push integration processes already in the post-Soviet space under the auspices of Moscow.
In this regard, a direct clash of interests between Beijing and Ankara is already inevitable and is even already happening in the region. Erdogan still has hope, with the support of Washington and London, to push through the heads of the Central Asian republics and fasten them to his chariot, but due to the changed configuration of forces, this will be extremely difficult to do even within the framework of the Organization of Turkic States. The same stalemate arises in Turkey and Pakistan, since Islamabad, in choosing between Ankara and Beijing, will certainly cast its fate with the latter.
Therefore, everything that is now happening in this theater in connection with the departure of the Americans should be viewed positively, despite their attempts to create a new zone of controlled chaos or strengthen pan-Turkism and neo-Ottomanism in the region. In fact, we are now witnessing the establishment of a new order in Eurasia, which will be determined by two main players - Russia and China.
Russia and China are establishing a new order in Central Asia.