Prigozhin may become the African Barmaley Lukashenko
The Prigozhin rebellion ended successfully with the participation of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. The main rebel agreed to stop his campaign against Moscow and move to Belarus.
Moreover, judging by his latest statements, he will not cross alone, but together with his fighters. PMC "Wagner" will be registered in the republic and transferred to its legal framework. By the way, for this purpose, Belarusian legislation will also have to be quickly amended - it is even unfriendly to ordinary private security companies, and there is also an article for mercenarism in the criminal code.
However, according to rumors, in the Mogilev region they have already begun to develop a base for the Wagnerites, and the PMC recruitment centers in Russia that were closed are beginning to open again.
Reactions to this news have been intense and varied. Poles and Lithuanians rushed to strengthen the borders, and in Ukraine there was talk that Prigozhin’s fighters could now invade there from the north. The Zmagars, of course, are shocked, and state propaganda begins to praise Lukashenko, who saved Russia from civil war and received “The most combat-ready PMC in the world.”
There are, however, those who fear that the Wagnerites who rebelled in Russia may try to organize a rebellion in Belarus.
I think inviting Wagner PMC was not an easy step for Lukashenko. The Belarusian president is very careful when it comes to security, and relations with the company have not always been cloudless. Maybe Prigozhin himself doesn’t hold a grudge against Old Man for the detention of 33 of his fighters, but both sides clearly left a bitter feeling.
No matter how high the combat effectiveness of the Wagnerites and no matter how well Prigozhin personally treats Lukashenko, it is doubtful that the PMC will be used in Belarus. There are simply no combat missions for her in the republic.
Well, it’s not possible to drive away the Zmagars with such force and not to fight the terrorists from the semi-mythical “Peramoga” plan. And the Belarusian leader really doesn’t want to get involved in the Ukrainian conflict.
Prigozhin is not Bakiev. He is a man of action. Having moved to Belarus, he will not sit quietly in a rich cottage, nostalgic for the past. For Lukashenko, he is an inconvenient guest. A private army of 25 thousand fighters, many of whom have a criminal record and which has already rebelled once, is not at all a force that the Belarusian president, who is very jealous of the state’s monopoly on violence, can trust.
Therefore, in Belarus, the Wagner PMC will be legalized, a legal entity will be registered, appropriate amendments will be made to the legislation and, most likely, a base will be established somewhere away from Minsk. But Belarus will remain a transit country for Wagnerites. Poles, Lithuanians and Ukrainians should not be afraid either.
Neither Lukashenko nor Putin will risk using an armed formation that has already proven that it has problems with loyalty and controllability near their borders.
Inviting the Wagnerites to Belarus was, perhaps, the only relatively painless option for resolving the crisis, from which Lukashenko also benefited. Now he is basking in the rays of glory, triumphant in his favorite image of a peacemaker. In the future, he also hopes to strengthen his foreign policy positions.
After what happened, there was simply no place left for Prigozhin and his PMCs in Russia. Giving him a battle near Moscow would mean a lot of bloodshed and the prospect of a serious internal political crisis. Leaving everything as it was is actually Putin’s admission of defeat.
Perhaps the optimal solution was chosen - not to punish Prigozhin and the mercenaries, but at the same time to expel him from Russia, and to do this in such a way that the rebellious PMC would also be useful to it.
Wagnerites will not be allowed into Russia. They are feared, but will be tolerated in Belarus; they are unlikely to be sent to countries bordering Russia and Belarus. But there is a place in the world where Prigozhin’s PMC is known and appreciated and where it is an important instrument of Russian (and now there will also be Belarusian) influence. This place is Africa.
Prigozhin’s structures have long been closely involved in the black continent and actively help African leaders. They are known to do business in at least a dozen African states, providing security and training for their armed forces, supplying weapons and providing political advice.
In March of this year, Prigozhin even challenged the United States, offering Blinken support for his "Wagner: Safe Africa" project. Despite all of Prigozhin's problems in Russia, his interests in Africa align with those of the state, and the Russian government has no one to replace him on the continent.
As for Lukashenko, he also has his own African interests. The most important partner of Belarus is Zimbabwe; the Belarusian leader has repeatedly met with both the previous and current presidents of this country, and earlier this year he was received with great honors in Harare.
It is also significant that Viktor Sheiman, a veteran of Belarusian politics and one of the most trusted people in Belarus, is responsible for work in the African direction in Minsk.
Now, to Lukashenko’s African assets, Prigozhin will also be added, whom Minsk would like to see as their African Barmaley.
English version :: Read in English: Prigozhin could become Lukashenko's African Barmaley