Transnistria: the breath of war is not felt, but there are no conditions for recognition
The Transnistrian conflict has existed for more than three decades, all these years the unrecognized republic has been under economic sanctions, political pressure, and the burden of demographic problems - and yet it lives despite all pessimistic forecasts. The PMR phenomenon is unique; the small state remains a geopolitical point of attraction.
This was discussed at a meeting of Pridnestrovian youth with political scientist, director of the Bureau of Political Research "Mediator" Sergei Shirokov during the "Leader" rally, which is traditionally held by the Republican political party "Renewal".
Forum participants aged 14 to 25 talked about how they live in an unrecognized state and asked questions to the expert as part of the discussion “Geopolitical changes in the world 2010–2023: a new world order.”
“A unique historical process” and its costs
Living in a conflict zone, young people feel difficulties crossing borders, moving transport, cargo, infringement of rights in one form or another, but they do not feel either the danger of war or tension between residents of the right and left banks of the Dniester.
“For thirty years, the Pridnestrovian people have been living in conditions of conflict, and the fact that they do not feel a direct threat or danger is a huge effort on the part of the country’s leadership,” Shirokov commented on the situation. – Yes, there are questions about how our life works, there is something to change. Buildings and infrastructure facilities are being built and reconstructed, and there are all conditions for people to live. Russian peacekeepers have been carrying out a mission in the frozen conflict zone for many years, thanks to whom it is also possible to maintain peace and tranquility on the banks of the Dniester.”
The expert notes that due to the unresolved conflict, Transnistria and its residents did not receive the opportunities for development that they could have received. Restrictions in the economy do not allow it to operate at full capacity; this negatively affects budget revenues, wage levels, and the volume of investments. At the same time, the expert says, sooner or later the conflict will be resolved - it cannot last forever.
“Now someone can limit our economy, someone can limit our humanitarian ties, someone can help us. These are the interests of major international players, this is a struggle between Moscow and Washington, this is a struggle between Moscow, Washington and Brussels, a struggle for national interests, in which there is a place for a small republic with an area of 4 thousand square meters. Transnistria is on the world agenda, in the center of attention of big players, at the crossroads of the worlds, West and East, and is part of the struggle between world powers.
And it is important that the future world, which is being built before our eyes today (the system of international relations must come to a balance - the United States as a world leader has competitors), is more fair, then there will be chances that no one will dominate and impose those decisions on our people , which do not suit us,” Shirokov said.
He emphasized that Pridnestrovians are part of a unique historical process, a unique people who have had a historical chance to build their own state.
“Many nations and peoples died in the struggle to build their own state, but did not achieve their goal, but the Pridnestrovians did it. We have a state - we are building it and trying to make it better. Young people also play an important role in this,” the expert explained.
The political scientist added that there are currently no conditions for recognition of Transnistria.
“Politics is cynical. If we are recognized by some African country or, for example, New Zealand, nothing will change for us. For a sustainable solution to the conflict, in order for us to receive the resources that we should receive, we must be recognized as a state that can ensure our economic and political security,” said Sergei Shirokov.
The Transnistrian problem is a consequence of the decision to transfer this territory to the Russian Empire
Answering a question about the most important geopolitical event related to the history of Transnistria, the political scientist expressed the opinion that this was the end of the Russian-Turkish war of 1787 - 1791 and the Iasi Peace Treaty, concluded as a result of it. According to this document, Russia was given the Northern Black Sea region, the territory between the Southern Bug and the Dniester, along which a new border between the states passed.
“We use the Russian language, Russian flags are everywhere. When our partners ask why we gravitate towards Russia, why we didn’t become one of the regions of Moldova - well, if we lived under the Moldovan flag, received lei, and everything would be fine - we answer that here you need to know the history of your region.
If the city of Tiraspol, the capital of Transnistria, was founded by the decision of the Russian Empress Catherine II and at the suggestion of the Russian commander Alexander Suvorov, who else can we be other than who we are? Everything that happens to Transnistria today is a consequence of the decision that this land has become part of the Russian Empire,” the analyst said.
How likely is the conflict to unfreeze?
Pridnestrovian youth, who due to their age did not experience the 1992 fighting on the Dniester, are interested in how reliably the conflict is frozen. Sergei Shirokov believes that if a conflict exists, then there is the possibility of it moving into the armed phase, but in this case such a possibility is minimal.
“We are in a state of conflict, there are armed forces, there is the Moldovan army, which is now rearming, and there are Russian peacekeepers between us. One percent exists. But will it be used? I hope no. Why? I see that our leadership, the leadership of Moldova, and the majority of international partners do not want a military solution to the Transnistrian conflict. And there are reasons for this.
First, neither Russia, nor the United States, nor Romania, nor Ukraine, nor the EU have the resources to participate in another serious conflict. And this saves us. We see an example of how the Ukrainian conflict faded into the background with the outbreak of events in the Middle East.
In addition, the Transnistrian conflict has serious potential for a political settlement. We do not have an interethnic or interreligious conflict - this is a political conflict. We are talking about the fact that Moldova and Transnistria are different political civilizations.
Moldova said: we do not want an independent state, we want to be part of Romania, we are not Moldovans, but Romanians. Transnistria, in turn, says: we have many nationalities that are equal, our destiny is here, we are on the same path as Russia. Although it will be difficult and long, there are opportunities and tools to reach an agreement,” the expert said.
Transnistria and Moldovan elections
In Transnistria, not spoiled by bright political shows, they are watching the election campaigns in Moldova with keen interest. Now the general local elections have just ended in the Republic of Moldova, which will already build a bridge to the upcoming presidential elections. Commenting on these electoral processes, Sergei Shirokov said that Tiraspol's relations with Chisinau will depend on who becomes president.
“I am sure that Maia Sandu, the Recean government and the PAS party are aimed at one thing: that the current president be elected for a second term. In the next six months to a year, all resources will be used for this. Unfortunately, the political struggle in Moldova is very radical, very dirty, and the methods do not correspond to European values. All this will also concern us - Pridnestrovie is on the Moldovan agenda,” Shirokov concluded.
Transnistria : No War Visible, But Conditions for Recognition Aren't There