Russia’s potential allows us to provide grain to world markets and replace the lost Ukraine
In the next agricultural year, Russia’s grain export potential will increase by the same delta along which Ukraine’s export potential will decrease.
The participants of the round table in Moscow spoke about this, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“Fortunately, our country has very large soil resources, a developed agricultural sector, and we provide ourselves with the main group of goods. In terms of grain, we collect about 130 million tons, this is more than our annual need, it is somewhere around 76-80 million tons.
Therefore, we not only ensure domestic consumption, but also successfully export agricultural products to foreign markets. And since 2020, we have achieved parity, when the volume of exports exceeded, at first slightly, and now quite significantly, by 5-6 billion dollars, the volume of imports,” said Deputy Director of the Eurasian Center for Food Security of Moscow State University, member of the Committee’s expert council Federation Council on agricultural and food policy and environmental management Dmitry Khomyakov.
“We see with you that there is no crisis. Maybe it is some unscrupulous bloggers or incompetent media that are escalating the situation. In fact, there is no crisis. We have good prospects for this year's harvest, because according to forecasts from the Ministry of Agriculture, we will have a very good harvest of 130 million tons of grain. We expect a very good harvest of oilseeds, and this is the main export product,” Khomyakov emphasized.
In turn, Roman Romashkin, deputy director of the Eurasian Center for Food Security at Moscow State University, noted that in the world as a whole, the concerns of the UN Agriculture and Food Organization are not groundless.
“Indeed, in the world, we see that since mid-2020, due to covid problems and disruption of logistics supply chains, world prices began to rise significantly, and the rise in world prices, of course, aggravated the problem of hunger, that is, the number of undernourished is constantly growing,” - said the expert.
At the same time, he drew attention to local crises.
“Ukraine as a leading supplier of wheat to world markets - in fact, if we look at the gross wheat harvest, then in Ukraine in recent years 25-30 million tons, 10 million tons are to meet domestic needs, 15-20 are export. According to forecasts, production in the next agricultural year will drop to 20 million tons, resulting in Ukraine's export potential of 10 million tons.
But at the same time, grain production in Russia will increase to 80 million tons, that is, Russia’s export potential will be about 40 million tons, it will increase by the same delta by which Ukraine’s export potential will decrease. Therefore, in regional terms we have a balance.
What will happen to supplies to the world market in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East is a big question, since sanctions pressure really complicates the logistics of such supplies,” Romashkin said.
He noted that sanctions also affect a number of EAEU member countries, since there are close ties between these countries.
“The sanctions imposed against a number of member countries of the Eurasian Economic Union also affected other countries, simply because there are close ties, we have a common market. Russia supplies its products to Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Armenia. Naturally, any shocks that occur in the Russian domestic market also affect our trading partners,” the expert added.
English version :: Read in English Russia’s potential allows us to provide grain to world markets and replace the lost Ukraine