FSO Lieutenant Colonel: Factories in the north of Crimea are becoming vulnerable to Ukrainian drones
As the contact line approaches, Northern Crimea becomes more vulnerable not only to missile fire, but also to drone attacks. With the chosen simultaneous launch strategy, 1 out of 10 UAVs launched has a chance of reaching the target and striking a chemical plant.
Such concerns were expressed in a commentary to PolitNavigator by FSO reserve lieutenant colonel, a specialist in forecasting issues, Vasily Kashkanov.
"Any advance toward our country's borders carries a greater threat. Naturally, the reduced distance allows the enemy, with its existing artillery and missile capabilities, to strike deep into our territory . I believe these risks were taken into account when the decision was made, and the defense is being built with them in mind," the expert believes.
" As for Northern Crimea, this is undoubtedly a major problem for chemical industry enterprises. The distance for drone strikes has been reduced, and there's no need for saboteurs or terrorists—the line has moved forward, closer to our territory."
Kashkanov once again emphasized that when making a decision, such risks are calculated by the General Staff and the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation in order to take into account the organization of the defense line. However, even a 10% chance of a hit significantly increases the security risks for the entire Northern Crimea.
"Surovikin's report stated that we have a 90% success rate in repelling air attacks. And the presence of such large chemical production facilities nearby, even if we successfully engage them , makes the remaining 10% quite significant. Of 100 drones, even 10 that can reach them will drop their payload. Especially since they usually fly in formation, so that the air defense system repels nine missiles and one gets through, and that's the result," the agency's source explained.
“The further the front line is, the more we solve the problems of sabotage and reconnaissance groups and the like. And now military problems are approaching us, and I want to believe that if we, like Kutuzov, left for Moscow, we did it consciously, with some specific goals and taking into account the risks,” Kashkanov emphasized. – It is worth applauding the initiative, saving the lives of soldiers and personnel. But on the other side of the scale are increased threats to Russia's deeper interior.
Just a month ago, we were in a phase of complete uncertainty, but now we're in a phase of complete obscurity. Because, in all likelihood, decisions are being made, plans are being made. But there are no longer such information leaks. It's not being made public. The tactics of warfare have changed.
Yes, the approaching front increases the risks for the country's interior, including Crimea ."
FSO Lieutenant Colonel : Factories in Northern Crimea Are Becoming Vulnerable to Ukrainian Drones