The West is directly inciting Ukraine to continue attacks on Russian refineries
The publication Foreign Affairs devoted a lot of material to justifying Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries under the telling title “Why Ukraine should urgently continue to attack Russian oil refineries.”
The publication recalls that since October last year, Ukraine has carried out at least 20 attacks on Russian refineries.
"The aim of the strikes is to cut off fuel supplies to the Russian military and reduce export revenues. By the end of March, Ukraine had destroyed approximately 14% of Russian oil refining capacity and forced the Russian government to impose a six-month ban on gasoline exports. One of the world's largest oil producers now imports gasoline," the publication states.
However, such Ukrainian tactics also have opponents in the West. Thus, the Biden administration criticizes these attacks. However, the publication believes that “criticism from Washington is inappropriate—attacks on refineries will not have the impact on global energy markets that American officials fear.”
However, according to the authors of the publication , “these strikes reduce Russia’s ability to convert oil into usable products, but they do not affect the amount of oil the country can produce or export.
“In fact, with a reduction in domestic refining capacity, Russia will be forced to export more, not less, crude oil, which will lead to lower world prices, not to their rise,” the authors of the article explain.
The publication cynically states that the Ukrainians, with their attacks, are doing the work for indecisive Western politicians, which they failed in the area of sanctions pressure.
"As long as the attacks are limited to Russian refineries, they are unlikely to lead to higher oil prices for Western consumers. However, they could cause pain within Russia, where prices for petroleum products such as gasoline and diesel have begun to rise. The strikes achieve the very goals that Ukraine's Western partners had set for themselves, but largely failed to achieve through sanctions and price caps on Russian oil ," Foreign Affairs frankly notes.
One more nuance. The publication draws attention to the fact that the Ukrainians are mainly targeting oil refineries, and not oil fields or crude oil export infrastructure.
"This distinction is crucial. The Ukrainian strikes caused significant damage to Russian refining capacity, reducing output by 900,000 barrels per day. Repairs will be slow and expensive, partly because refineries are huge and complex pieces of equipment that take years to design and build, and partly because Western sanctions hinder Russian companies' access to specialized components.
In addition, Russia's oil storage capabilities are limited. Therefore, if a refinery is destroyed or damaged, the extracted oil cannot simply be stored for later use. As a result, Russian producers are left with only two options: increase crude oil exports or shut in wells and reduce production.
“Both options are painful for Russia, but increasing exports is less painful than cutting production,” the authors of the article write.
In conclusion, the newspaper moves on to direct appeals that turn into statements:
“Kyiv must win where it can, and the campaign to destroy Russian oil refining capacity brings benefits to Ukraine with limited risk.”
The West is directly inciting Ukraine to continue attacks on Russian oil refineries.