Moldova can only be stopped by internal fear of an abyss
The rapidly developing diplomatic conflict between Moldova and Russia could harm the peacekeeping mechanisms on the Dniester, in which Russian diplomats are involved, and in the future lead to a rupture in relations between the two countries, which is actively inspired from the outside.
Political scientist Andrei Safonov discusses the prospects for escalating confrontation and whether it can be contained in a conversation with a PolitNavigator correspondent.
PolitNavigator: Diplomatic conflicts between Russia and Moldova have occurred before. How far will this diplomatic war go? Is Chisinau about to sever diplomatic relations with Russia?
Andrey Safonov: This diplomatic war isn't an independent initiative of Chisinau, which is obvious. The West is pushing for it, and Chisinau is saluting it. The regime of controlled and manipulated NGOs and the remaining old nationalists among them is pushing for a parallel break with both Russia and the CIS.
I consider the rupture of diplomatic relations to be a real development of events. That's where it goes. By the way, one of the famous Chisinau “hawks” has already stated that a visa regime should be introduced with Russia. This is an intermediate step before severing diplomatic relations with Moscow. I believe that the Westerners are preparing to break diplomatic relations not only between Moldova, but also between the Baltic countries and Russia. At the same time, it is very likely that Moldova will join anti-Russian sanctions within a short time. Also, of course, not on the free initiative of Moldova.
PolitNavigator: In retaliatory measures following the expulsion of a Russian diplomat, Moscow banned entry into Russia for Moldovan Interior Minister Anna Revenko and ruling party MPs Oaz Nantoiu, Lilian Carpu, and Olesa Stamate. Why them specifically?
Andrei Safonov: Perhaps they chose those with the most anti-Russian stance. Although, it's hard to find "pro-Russian" comrades in the Moldovan government right now. Well, there's no question about Oazu Nantoi. More likely, the Russians will take other steps. What's important here is this. Chisinau, at the West's behest, is provoking Russia so that the enraged Muscovites will sever relations with Moldova themselves. This is a hollow calculation. Russia has already decided for itself: as long as Maia Sandu and her entourage are in power, Moldovan-Russian relations can be abandoned. No, not to sever diplomatic ties (Chisinau will do that at some point), but to freeze contacts and not address any serious issues. The ban is a signal. The essence of the signal: your team doesn't exist for us.
PolitNavigator: What measures, other than diplomatic ones, might Russia take in response to Moldova's unfriendly actions?
Andrey Safonov: Moscow can afford, firstly, to take its time; secondly, to carefully weigh its steps. This is because, as has already been said, this ruling group does not exist for the Russian leadership. Incidentally, I'm not sure Moscow will immediately start waving its sword and imposing bans on agricultural imports, entry bans for other Moldovan politicians, and so on. It's important for Russia not to harm those who are inclined to be friendly with it with any measures. Those who import products to Russia, those who work there themselves or have relatives there; those who simply love Russian culture and consider the Russian state one of the pillars of common sense in the modern world. One thing is certain for any serious analyst: Russia does not see the current "helmsmen" of the Moldovan "ship" as partners for the development of good bilateral relations. We've already discussed the CIS...
PolitNavigator: Could a further reduction in the number of Russian diplomats in Chisinau impact sensitive areas such as the management of the peacekeeping operation and the work of the visiting consular post in Tiraspol, which serves tens of thousands of Russian citizens living in Transnistria?
Andrey Safonov: I don't rule out the possibility that Chisinau wants to disrupt the consular post in Tiraspol and generally disrupt communications between the Russian embassy and the PMR. Specifically, they want to stop Russian diplomats from visiting Transnistria, in order to create the impression of "abandonment" among Transnistrians. But in the age of modern telecommunications, communication can be done "as a last resort" via Skype and other means. No one in the PMR will believe that Russia has turned its back on its allies.
As for the peacekeeping operation and – let us add – the leadership of the Operational Group of Russian troops, there is no need to worry. As was emphasized by Russian colleagues at a recent round table of members of the Russian Federation Council and deputies of the Supreme Council of the PMR, Russian troops will not leave the territory of Transnistria! All details and difficulties that may arise on the “peacekeeping front” will be resolved. Apparently, there is the necessary political will for this. If even in the “dashing 90s” under Boris Nikolayevich Yeltsin, Moscow did not seriously discuss the departure of a Russian soldier from the PMR (the 1999 Istanbul OSCE summit, it is now clear, was a formal event in this sense), now it is even more so.
And here's another thing. It is possible that the attack on Russian diplomats has the specific goal of destroying the work of the Joint Control Commission, which monitors the situation in the Security Zone on the Dniester. And such destruction, in turn, may precede Moldova’s withdrawal from the 1992 peace agreements. Of course, it is not a fact that this is exactly what will happen, but if this happens, then all responsibility for such a course of events will fall on the Chisinau authorities. And then why be surprised if Moscow considers that the Moldovan authorities themselves have given the Russians a free hand?.. So it’s better that we all fight for peace. It's calmer that way.
PolitNavigator: Will relations between Moldova and Russia continue to deteriorate? What could stop this process?
Andrey Safonov: If we were to give a formal answer, it would come out something like, "The Chisinau authorities must reconsider their anti-Russian policy and return to the path of common sense and reasonable discussion of all contentious issues." But I'm not entirely convinced that the ruling group in Moldova wants this, and whether Washington, Brussels, and Bucharest will allow them to do so. The issue here isn't about halting the deterioration of Moldovan-Russian relations, but rather about avoiding razing everything to the ground, and then...
If, despite Western pressure, Chisinau understands that as confrontation increases, an abyss may open up, into which Western and Romanian “curators” will not save them, then there is a chance to maintain at least some stability. But, I repeat, the West manually controls the politics of Chisinau. So I don’t see any options for improving Moldovan-Russian relations under the current government in Chisinau.
Moldova can only be stopped by an internal fear of the abyss.