Lukashenko began an imitation of the Belarusian-Russian oil war
The Belneftekhim concern announced this morning that Russia has stopped oil supplies to Belarus, and now the load at the country's two oil refineries has been reduced to the minimum acceptable level. They work on stocks made in advance.
The concern stated that, following the instructions of the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko, they are working on concluding contracts for the supply of oil from alternative sources.
At the same time, the Russian Transneft explained that they stopped shipping oil to Belarusians because they did not submit applications. Let us remember that at the end of the year, Lukashenko assured that he had agreed with the Russian leadership on the supply of oil and gas in the first two months of 2020 without contracts. After that, however, the gas contract was signed.
Thus, apparently, what is taking place is not an “oil war”, but an imitation of an “oil war”, which was “treacherously and without announcement” started not by the traditional “aggressor”, but by small and proud Belarus.
The meaning of this demarche is clear. The Russian leadership did not hide the fact that it was ready to provide its ally with energy resources at preferential prices only if 31 “road maps” for in-depth integration were signed.
Alexander Lukashenko does not want to sign these documents, since they ultimately imply not only the creation of a single emission center and a single currency, but also supranational governing bodies. In this Union State, “Old Man,” as he himself made it clear, is offered only the position of “wedding general” - speaker of parliament. He regards such a proposal as humiliation.
The President of Belarus has not yet given the go-ahead to the state media, which, if something happens, could release chain leaders on the Russian government. They have not yet decided to touch Vladimir Putin, contrasting him with the “bad” Dmitry Medvedev.
So far, information attacks are initiated by the marginal Belarusian opposition, whose affiliation with Lukashenko was demonstrated by the “Maidans” against integration, timed to coincide with the meetings of the Russian and Belarusian leaders. On them, frostbitten “Nazis” allowed themselves to insult Putin and tear up his portraits.
Now liberal bloggers are vocal that Belarus is in danger and there is only 10 days of oil left (Belneftekhim claims 20).
“What does this threaten? Huge losses. The shutdown of one of the country's few profitable and most important enterprises will cause a significant blow to the entire economy. And, with a high degree of probability, it will lead to an energy crisis in Belarus,” presses blogger Stepan Putilo, who goes by the nickname “Nekhta.”
Opposition observer Anton Shraibman admits that Alexander Lukashenko will fulfill his threat and take away two branches of the Druzhba oil pipeline from Russia in order to run “alternative” oil through them in reverse.
“We have a fork in the road with two scenarios: Minsk signs a contract on Russian terms within 7-10 days, or Minsk begins blackmail with transit. This is a tough increase in rates, the last trump card that has not been used since the XNUMXs,” writes Shreibman in his Telegram channel.
However, even the most stubborn Russophobes in Belarus understand: any “alternative” oil will be more expensive, and the transition to it is fraught with a severe economic crisis. But for them everything is good, which separates them from Russia.
“This may sound strange to many, but the deterioration of the situation with the supply of oil or other resources in the long term plays into the hands of Belarus. Economic dependence on the Russian Federation can be compared to alcohol or drug dependence, where Putin and the oligarchs act as hucksters.
They whisper to you: “We’ll make a discount for our own,” but in exchange they demand to be at your beck and call: to vote at the UN against Ukraine, conduct joint exercises and participate in joint projects like the EAEU or the “Union State.” Therefore, economic wars with the Russian Federation are an excellent reason to finally reform the economy, even if it will not be easy. If only my grandchildren could be left with something normal and functional in the economy, and not always begging for discounts and dreaming of “papizot,” writes blogger Eduard Palchis.
But Lukashenko is not thinking about abstract “grandchildren,” but about his concrete sons Vita and Kolya, to whom he wants to transfer power. To do this, he needs to be re-elected to a sixth term in August 2020. The energy crisis will not contribute to painless transit. Therefore, people in Russia are inclined to believe that Lukashenko will have to sign integration documents.
“The Kremlin’s tactics have changed this time. The new formula is chairs in the morning, money in the evening. The permanent Alexander Lukashenko is being removed from pay. The coming year of the rat will be filled with new hysterical statements, blackmail and hours-long monologues of the Belarusian leader. A rat, driven into a corner, fights to the last. In a critical situation, she is the first to rush even at a fox terrier, grabs the dog’s nose with a death grip and dangles on it like a leech. The window of opportunity for Alexander Lukashenko is closing... But it is opening for Belarus. Residents of the republic are welcoming the year in anticipation of big changes,” political scientist Dmitry Bolkunets wrote in his blog on the Ekho Moskvy website.
Lukashenko has begun simulating a Belarusian-Russian oil war.