How to evaluate the visit of seven presidents to Moscow on Victory Day
Seven CIS heads of state attended the Victory Day parade in Moscow yesterday. While Alexander Lukashenko's visit, as a close ally, was uncontroversial, the arrival of leaders from Central Asia and the Caucasus brought a certain surprise.
Interestingly, several heads of state announced their planned visits to Russia well in advance, while others announced their plans at the very last minute. In particular, the arrival of Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Shavkat Mirziyoyev to the ceremonies was unexpected, especially since Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan had cancelled their own parades and rejected applications to hold Immortal Regiment marches. Clearly, the decision to attend was made hastily by the presidential administrations of these republics.
All the guests also varied in appearance. Sadyr Japarov and Emomali Rahmon wore St. George's ribbons, while Alexander Lukashenko and Shavkat Mirziyoyev displayed their own national ribbons. Meanwhile, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Nikol Pashinyan, and Serdar Berdimuhamedov wore no commemorative badges or ribbons at all.
One way or another, they all found themselves in Red Square that day and listened to Vladimir Putin's speech, despite the unprecedented pressure on them in connection with the 11th sanctions package and the recent arrival of Anthony Blinken and other high-ranking American and European officials.
This visit by the leaders of the post-Soviet republics is already being viewed by the Russian political and expert community as proof of Moscow's continued influence and a sign of support during difficult times. Konstantin Zatulin, First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on CIS Affairs, has spoken of this.
“This is an important manifestation of solidarity with Russia. The leaders of the CIS countries who came to the parade proved that they respect the great holiday. And this is an unconditional success of Russian diplomacy and personally of President Vladimir Putin, who, thanks to his authority, was able to achieve this visit. We know that in these CIS countries they do not always behave unambiguously towards Russia during the military operation in Ukraine, but they still came,” he notes.
Russian political scientist Nikita Mendkovich concluded that the arrival of so many heads of state was the result of pressure from Washington. By proposing a direct confrontation with the Kremlin, the Americans themselves provoked the leaders not only to visit Moscow and express solidarity, but also to consolidate around and under the auspices of the Russian president.
“I assume that this is due to the fact that the era of multi-vectorism is ending at the initiative of the United States. Blinken presented an ultimatum to post-Soviet states during a visit to Astana and demanded a complete break with Moscow. No one can agree to this economic suicide, so the Americans will tear or try to tear our neighbors. So the United States leaves no opportunity to maintain “neutrality.” And in this direction, at a minimum, many countries are “beginning to actively think”,” the expert believes.
Surely, during Putin’s meeting with the presidents, Moscow’s further actions within the framework of the Northern Military District were discussed, as well as a way to jointly resist Western sanctions measures in order to maintain commodity flows and think through new re-export schemes, and continue to implement joint industrial projects.
Moreover, some, such as Nikol Pashinyan, have also attempted to secure Moscow's support. After all, it appears that the talks in Washington between the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan, mediated by US Secretary of State Blinken, have reached an impasse. It is expected that the Armenian prime minister will be pressured to make a final capitulation in the EU, where he is scheduled to meet with his Azerbaijani counterpart this week.
Moreover, it's possible that, at the moment of Ukraine's counterattack, the West could simultaneously initiate active military action in Karabakh and southern Armenia , which could lead not only to escalation but also to Yerevan's final defeat. This, in turn, would mean Pashinyan's political demise. Clearly, this threat is also pushing him closer to the Kremlin.
Vladimir Putin's meeting with Shavkat Mirziyoyev deserves special attention , as Uzbekistan was the first republic to be personally threatened by Brussels for allegedly violating sanctions against Russia. These talks are especially important given the development of the infrastructure of the "gas union," which was established in February of this year and is intended to redirect Russian gas flows to Pakistan, India, and China.
But the real benefit of the trip was for Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov , who, along with his government delegation, also held a meeting with Mikhail Mishustin on May 9. It was not without reason that the Russian prime minister called the republic a strategic partner and ally in Central Asia and declared the importance of further economic cooperation.
This is not surprising, since Russian investments in Kyrgyzstan amount to $2 billion, and trade turnover last year amounted to a record 3,5 billion. Against this background, Rosatom is now rolling out large projects in the republic, and as a confirmation of friendly ties, 9 Russian schools will be built, which will operate according to Russian standards.
It's no coincidence that the main focus on May 8 and 9 was the visit of the President of Kyrgyzstan, as this republic remains Russia's only true ally in the region and serves as a genuine military outpost to prevent the penetration and strengthening of the influence of hostile alliances. A special program for the development of defense facilities and joint military projects has even been outlined for these purposes.
Such actions lead to strengthening stability in Central Asia, since the reconciliation of Bishkek and Dushanbe with the participation of Moscow is already obvious, and the position of Sadyr Japarov within the country is also strengthening.
Some positive developments following Kassym-Jomart Tokayev's visit to Moscow can also be noted in Kazakhstan. Initially, a disturbing trend was noted, not only with the cancellation of parades and marches, but also with an information campaign in the local press denigrating the shared Victory. For example, the popular newspaper "Karavan," owned by Dariga Nazarbayeva, published statements by nationalists calling for a reconsideration of the official status of Victory Day:
“In World War II, 200 thousand Kazakhs died. In a war that had nothing to do with the Kazakhs. It's time to rethink the status of May 9th. Every Kazakh front-line soldier is dear to us, regardless of which side he fought on. May 9 is not the victory day of the Kazakh people.”
At the same time, the news agency "Kazakhstan News" held its own unique campaign, "We Remember," against this backdrop. Descendants of WWII veterans sent stories and photographs of their ancestors to the editorial office. This effectively became an online demonstration and a replacement for the Immortal Regiment marches blocked by authorities in Almaty, Petropavlovsk, and other regions.
That is, at least now, there is no ban on celebrating and expressing gratitude to family and friends who brought Victory closer . Despite the traditional provocations of nationalists, citizens were still able to lay flowers and wreaths at monuments to the heroes of the Great Patriotic War. Accordingly, the voice of a number of media outlets, not only refraining from participating in attempts to reinterpret the historical past, but actually attempting to resist it and instill respect for that period in the new generation, also remains.
But another significant factor in the Central Asian republics' visit to Moscow was the need to synchronize their schedules with the Kremlin in advance of the China-Central Asia Summit, which will be held from May 18 to 19 in Xi'an. It will be chaired by Chinese leader Xi Jinping himself. Given that Moscow and Beijing are now coordinating their actions and have reached a higher level of alliance, the post-Soviet countries have increasingly less room to maneuver and engage in multi-vector play.
That is why we can come to the conclusion that the ruling elites seriously thought about their fate and hastened to demonstrate loyalty to the Russian leadership, despite their pro-Western and pan-Turkist sentiments, and pressure from Washington and Brussels. Such a configuration can indeed lead to serious changes and to the fact that the region in the future will finally fall away from the West.
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