“Donbass is getting further and further from Ukraine, but the real, big catastrophe of Odessa is still ahead”
The residents of Odessa who experienced the tragedy of May 2 are well aware that the real, big catastrophe of Odessa is still ahead. Donbass, despite the Minsk agreements, is gradually integrating more and more with Russia, and returning to Ukraine is almost impossible, and is not supported by the overwhelming majority of the population.
Odesa City Council member Alexander Vasiliev , who was forced to leave Ukraine for Crimea in May 2014, spoke about this in an interview with PolitNavigator. He is currently in Donetsk, where he works as part of the "Odnako. Eurasia" team, led by renowned political scientist Semyon Uralov. The team is working on a book about state-building in the DPR and is implementing several media projects, the most ambitious of which is the "Direct Line" with the head of the republic, Alexander Zakharchenko.
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“PolitNavigator”: Alexander, you are now in Donetsk. Before that, we spent quite a lot of time in Sevastopol/Crimea, where we left Odessa. What are the main differences in the atmosphere in which Odessa, Crimea and Donetsk live today? People’s moods, their behavior, work and leisure – can you compare?
Alexander Vasiliev: Yes, it's true that I've moved for the second time in the last year and a half, so I have the opportunity to compare. Of course, answering questions about people's attitudes is best done not only based on personal impressions but also by having comparable sociological data for all three regions, which I don't have. But I'll try anyway.
The main difference is in the attitude towards the catastrophe that is unfolding before our eyes. In Sevastopol, people look at her and understand that she has passed them by. You know, this happens during summer thunderstorms, when there’s a black cloud right on the horizon, lightning is striking, thunder is already heard, and most likely it won’t even be limited to downpour, but there will be hail. And then something changes, and the cloud passes you by. So it is here. Therefore, people are immersed in their daily problems. The average person is concerned about prices and wages, the tourist is concerned about the level of service and the same prices, the political activist is concerned about corruption, coastal development, etc.
This catastrophe broke out in Donetsk. Hail has already struck from the cloud. But the worst is over. Yes, of course, people are concerned, first of all, with surviving. But the main leitmotif is the restoration of what was destroyed, the improvement of some emerging structures and institutions, and the construction of the state. Therefore, every day, along with difficulties, brings improvements, albeit small ones. Donetsk came to life before my eyes during the months of the conditional “Minsk” truce. People returned, cafes, hairdressers, and shops opened. The housing rental market has revived and is very active.
Odessa is a city that has already experienced one terrible catastrophe, but a local catastrophe. And he lives in the premonition that a real, big catastrophe is yet to come. It is anticipated by both those who are for Ukraine, and those who are against, and even those who do not care.
After May 2, many people left the city, not just some politicians or activists, but ordinary people, primarily from the middle class, those who felt the strength and opportunity to start life over. Some went to Russia, some to Belarus, some to the EU. In terms of scale, this is reminiscent of the Jewish emigration from the time of my childhood, only now it is mainly Russians who are leaving. Now, of course, the summer season is in full swing in the city, which, in the absence of Crimea and partly Azov resorts in Ukraine, looks very good. But, in fact, this is only a disguise of the general crisis into which the Ukrainian economy continues to plunge.
“PolitNavigator”: People outside Donbass are following the situation according to Russian official news, which differs from the data of the “patriotic opposition” - it prefers to talk about the threat of “leaking”.
How is everything that is happening seen from the center of events? Are they really losing it, or is there hope for victory?
Alexander Vasiliev: Yes, the dire descriptions and predictions of people outside the region have become a genre in their own right. I recommend everyone read those who are here regularly or permanently and can clearly express their thoughts, who are, as they say, "in the know," i.e., competent, have access to non-public information by virtue of their work, and are at the same time as independent and unbiased.
Read Dmitry Steshin and Alexander Kots, the famous military correspondents of Komsomolskaya Pravda, read the no less famous specialist in non-humanitarian aid to Donbass from St. Petersburg Alexander Zhuchkovsky, whom we recently met quite by chance, read the wonderful Melitopol blogger Denis Seleznev. These are all very different people, with different views on Donbass, but they all meet the criteria that I cited.
The list, of course, is far from complete, but I have proposed the principle of its compilation.
Now as for draining, not draining. As a historian, I understand that the war in Donbass, and the Russian Spring in general, are large-scale historical events that have objective causes and prerequisites. They are not the result of the actions of some individuals, some kind of conspiracy, and therefore they cannot be controlled manually from offices, no matter how high these offices are.
Yes, indeed, the essence of the political part of the Minsk agreements is to integrate the Republic into the political body of Ukraine. But it is the republics, with their leaders, tanks, guns, tax systems, security forces, etc. If this is implemented, then it will indeed be a “cunning plan” that will be deadly for Ukraine, because it will first of all allow the powerful economy of Donbass to breathe deeply, which means it will only strengthen the potential of the republics.
But Ukrainians understand this no worse than we do, and will never agree to this. Those. here they will never give up their army as a guarantor of independence from Ukraine, but there no one with this army will take over the Republic.
Therefore, on paper the “cunning plan” may be good, but personally I don’t see the possibility of implementing it. Therefore, we need a plan “B”, not so tricky but more realistic. Whether it exists and what it consists of, I personally don’t know. But in fact, today we see that the Republics are getting further and further from Ukraine, and getting closer to Russia. The economy, finance, educational standards, even the political system are all gradually but steadily “ererified,” so to speak.
Well, I have to disappoint those who see a picture of a defenseless Donbass being beaten by punitive forces with the tacit consent of the authorities and the militia. This has nothing to do with reality.
“PolitNavigator”: How dangerous is being in Donetsk from the point of view of the average person? Shelling, armed people, etc.?
Alexander Vasiliev: I can say that, overall, safety isn't a key priority for the average person. Far more pressing are issues of employment and consumer prices.
Today, a relatively narrow front-line zone is exposed to the danger of shelling. Everyone, of course, remembers the spontaneous protest of residents of those areas that are subject to regular shelling. After this, the authorities organized an evacuation, but relatively few responded. A significant number of people, with some kind of supernatural stubbornness, continue to cling to their homes, their property, and their usual habitat.
For example, I recently came across a case where a family with a child lost their house from shelling, moved, and is now looking for an apartment in the same area, and I quote, “because the child misses his friends in the new place.” This is difficult to assess, but it is a fact.
As for people with weapons, already in the spring, when I arrived, this was in complete order. No one just wanders around Donetsk with machine guns. I'll tell you another real case. I helped two Odessa militia friends I knew, raised some money for them to buy summer uniforms, because the software here, of course, is a bit difficult for the guys. Well, he asked me to take a photo in new clothes and with weapons to post on Facebook as a report. This turned out to be a whole problem. The weapon is in the armory and it’s so easy, when you want it, you can’t take it. Everything is strictly according to the regulations.
In general, there are certainly no more military people on the streets in Donetsk than in Sevastopol. Military trucks are seen with approximately the same frequency. In all the time I've been here, I've seen only a few armored vehicles. So just on the street, there was only one infantry fighting vehicle that was going about its business past the Donbass Arena.
“PolitNavigator”: You recently wrote on the social network that Odessa residents do not want to have nothing to do with the Kyiv anti-Maidan. Why?
Alexander Vasiliev: Well, I can't speak for all Odessans, but there are many who think the same way I do. Remember what Ostap Bender said to the former leader of the nobility: "My friend, you are suffering from organizational impotence and a pale infirmity." But Anti-Maidan is organizational impotence, pale infirmity, and budget embezzlement.
In addition, the whole anti-Maidan discourse is that we will drive out the extremist fascists and live in a single country under the wise management of “strong business executives.” As they say: I saw your country and your business executives in the grave. I personally am not interested in Ukraine in any form, neither fascist nor anti-fascist. This, please, without Odessa and without me.
“PolitNavigator”: I heard this version - that shells do not fly into the center of Donetsk and the DPR institutions, because this is the property of the oligarchs, who agreed not to damage it. How true is this?
Alexander Vasiliev: I heard something even better the other day – shells aren't flying into central Donetsk and DPR institutions because they're full of Ukrainian spies, and they're afraid of hitting them. I immediately thought of Stirlitz, who was worried that the Americans would "hit their own institution" with their bombs.
In fact, off the top of my head I can name only 3 nationalized business centers that house DPR departments, and far from the most key ones. The rest are former administrative buildings that do not belong to any oligarchs.
“PolitNavigator”: What are the general sentiments about the old oligarchs in the DPR? Is Akhmetov really visiting? Is there a noticeable desire of the regionals to return and regain their former power?
Alexander Vasiliev: The mood is generally negative. The worst attitude is toward those directly connected to the "Family." Everyone understands how these people acquired their property and how they achieved their positions, and so the rule "take what's taken is no shame" applies to them. Many of the Republic's military and civilian leaders are, in fact, representatives of the local middle class, who themselves suffered under the local system in their time, and they are the first to be uninterested in the return of the former masters and their rules.
Kurchenko tried to take control of the fuel market of the republic, using his classic (and in my opinion the only) business scheme, the essence of which boiled down to building a financial pyramid (he did not have his own working capital in the required amount) and an administratively assigned monopoly. All this predictably led to several fuel crises, after which Kurchenko’s plans to return to Donbass on a white horse collapsed.
Another oligarch turned to the authorities of the republic with a request to return to him control over assets that were simply destroyed by his local junior partners, who, taking advantage of the situation, simply seized them. After a direct appeal to the authorities of the republic, the issue was resolved, the enterprise, vital for the DPR, is operating.
I have no information whether Akhmetov visits there directly. But more likely no than yes. In principle, a fairly respectful attitude towards him remained, as an authoritative person, but at the same time, by the fact that he did not support the uprising, he seriously disappointed many people. This is perceived as betrayal. But Akhmetov’s humanitarian aid really helped to survive the difficult winter and this is also taken into account.
Basically, all the rumors that Akhmetov somehow controls the two most famous Donetsk units, “Oplot” or “Vostok,” appeared after his residence was placed under guard at the very beginning of the uprising to avoid looting. But in reality this was done in order to avoid the outbreak of “mayhem” that could follow. This could become a kind of negative signal: “if this can be done to the most respected person in Donbass, then it means this can be done to everyone.” There is a logic to this, which is often not clear to an outside observer.
Sometimes you can hear about one or another functionary of the republics, military or civilian, that before the war he worked in the business structures of certain oligarchs, Akhmetov, Taruta, etc. Well, our analysts, as they say now “sofa-wise,” draw far-reaching conclusions from this. However, you need to understand how Donbass was structured in principle. Here everything was tied to large financial and industrial groups, and it was difficult to make a career outside of them. Moreover, today these people act completely independently of their past connections, in completely different conditions. And I don’t know anyone who would like to return to their previous, subordinate position in the local hierarchy. Relatively speaking, these people are ready to conduct a dialogue on equal terms with the collective Akhmetov, but they certainly have no desire to become their subordinates.
“PolitNavigator”: What is the mood among the population? How many are ready to return to Ukraine “if only everything would end quickly”?
Alexander Vasiliev: The most popular view on the future of the Republic is the desire to integrate into the Russian Federation, following the Crimean scenario. However, many don't believe this is realistic for Donbas. Also popular are ideas that the DPR should integrate into some larger entity—from unification with the LPR to the creation of a Greater Novorossiya from Kharkiv to Tiraspol. People here are accustomed to thinking big; they felt cramped even in Ukraine, and most are willing to tolerate the territory of "separate districts" as a temporary measure. Generally, returning to the regional borders is a minimum plan for the overwhelming majority of citizens.
Those who do not accept the Republic, according to my estimates, range from 5 to a maximum of 10%. For obvious reasons, it is quite difficult to determine their exact number using sociological methods. Another maximum 10% are ready for the format prescribed in the Minsk agreements - i.e. special status within federal Ukraine.
According to my observations, the main “gains of the revolution” for Donbass were its Russian identity and its armed forces, as a guarantor of identity. People, reluctantly, will be able to sacrifice everything else. But not this. People also clearly understand that their well-being is connected with the functioning of heavy industry, which is also perceived here as a kind of value and really has a strong influence on society and its mentality. Hopes for the revival of this industry are also associated primarily with the Russian Federation.
