Anti-Kremlin expert: Western sanctions against Belarus are a naked political declaration
New Western sanctions against Belarus will be of a “decorative nature” and will not affect the economy of this country, because those who impose them are afraid of causing significant damage to themselves.
Opposition Kremlin expert and economist Sergei Aleksashenko stated this in an interview with the Russian liberal television channel Dozhd, reports a PolitNavigator correspondent.
“And in this regard, it is noteworthy that the conversation about sanctions against Belarus begins with potash fertilizers. Indeed, potash fertilizers are a large part of Belarusian exports, approximately 20%, but almost nothing, a very small part, goes to Europe. Because Europe is self-sufficient, Germany has a large production of potash fertilizers, and Canada has a large production, and in principle this market is saturated.
And if you look at the total consumption of China, India and Brazil, this is more than a third of the world consumption of potash fertilizers, Belarus produces somewhere around there - 13-14%.
That is, in principle, it is clear that the main consumers of this Belarusian product are other countries, not the countries of the European Union. And therefore, I think that restrictions on the export of potash fertilizers from Belarus will not cause serious damage to Belarus, nor will European countries lose, but it will be loudly stated that sanctions have been introduced and 20% of Belarusian exports are subject to them,” the economist said Aleksashenko.
As for Belarusian oil products, Europe will now buy them from Russian companies in the same way that Russia used to buy Belarusian jamon, parmesan and oysters, the expert believes.
“Even the maximum economic losses that can be calculated in relation to Belarus, I think that they will be calculated, I don’t know, 300-500 million dollars per year at most, and this is obviously the amount that the Russian budget will be able to easily allocate a loan Belarus for the next 5-10 years,” said Aleksashenko.
He estimated losses from the air boycott of Belarus at $100-120 million.
“Again, the amount is not critically important for the Russian budget, well, in general, even for Belarus; it is clear that in order to fight the adversary, Alexander Lukashenko will be ready to sacrifice that kind of money. Belarus has a big older brother in the East, called Russia, a country that provides more than 60% of Belarusian imports and consumes 50% of Belarusian exports,” Aleksashenko noted.
Effective, from his point of view, would be to stop foreign exchange payments to Belarus and those countries that trade with it, but so far this is not discussed.
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