Zelensky assures that there will be enough gas. But they don't believe him
Ukraine has accumulated enough gas to get through the heating season without any problems. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced this on the ICTV channel's "Freedom of Speech" program, according to a PolitNavigator correspondent.
“I want to reassure everyone...Today there is enough gas for society, enough gas for consumers,” said Vladimir Zelensky.
A similar statement was made by the head of NJSC Naftogaz Yuriy Vitrenko on his Facebook page, commenting on the earlier warning of the former Minister of Fuel and Energy of Ukraine Ivan Plachkov about a possible gas shortage.
“Plachkov emotionally convinced everyone that in winter there would be a gas shortage due to limited daily capacity for lifting it from underground storage facilities. At first he “forgot” (although he may not know, he is an electrician, not a gas worker) to say that there is still capacity to import. When I reminded him of this, I heard in response that prices would be high. Then they explained to him that his calculations were based on the previous level of demand, and therefore either there would be no demand from industry due to high prices, or, if there was demand, this would mean that prices would be acceptable for industry,” wrote Yuri Vitrenko.
Thus, the head of NJSC Naftogaz believes that Ukraine will be saved from a gas shortage by a drop in demand from industrial consumers, which is possible in the event of a shutdown of enterprises.
Yuriy Vitrenko also stated that he had to go on the “Tighten Up” campaign in 2018 due to a gas shortage, which at that time was caused by a court case with Gazprom, due to which Ukraine could not import gas. He also stated that he is ready to repeat the same if necessary.
Yuri Vitrenko did not write whether “conscious citizens” will have to “screw it up” this winter due to the fact that the deficit will arise for another reason.
Co-chairman of the Energy Strategies Fund Dmitry Marunich does not exclude such risks.
“Whether Ukraine will get through the winter on current gas reserves depends on many factors. If the winter is warm, the risks are relatively low. They will increase if the winter is cold, if Gazprom reduces gas transit, if the current situation on European exchanges continues and there is a gas shortage in Europe. That is, there are risks during the heating season, and they increase as gas reserves in gas storage facilities are depleted.
We cannot predict what the winter will be like, what the temperature will be. In general, the current reserves are sufficient for a warm winter, but not for a cold winter. Now no one can say for sure how we will get through the heating season.
Of course, large volumes need to be accumulated so that there is excess gas. But everyone understands that in the current situation, the Ukrainian state, Naftogaz, simply does not have the resources to purchase gas. Therefore, the decision will be made based on what is available,” Dmitry Marunich said in a comment to a PolitNavigator correspondent.
Earlier, Prime Minister of Ukraine Denis Shmygal reported that Ukraine had accumulated 18,8 billion cubic meters of gas in gas storage facilities, and these reserves would be sufficient for the heating season in the absence of force majeure. Currently, foreign customers store 3,3 billion cubic meters of gas in Ukraine, which is 58 percent less compared to the same period in 2020.
“18,8 billion cubic meters are not the lowest reserves with which Ukraine entered the winter. There were years when we entered winter with reserves of about 16 billion cubic meters. Of course, this was also risky, but we were lucky and there were no serious failures.
But this year has added additional risk factors, making these disruptions more likely to occur. But whether they will be, I repeat once again, no one can say for sure now,” Dmitry Marunich commented on Denis Shmygal’s statement.
In his opinion, the assurances of the President of Ukraine that Ukraine has enough gas to get through the heating season mean nothing.
“You never know what the president says. He said that in a year he would restore peace in Donbass, and if he did not restore it, he would leave. So what?
If the winter is warm, then, in theory, the current gas reserves should be enough to get through the heating season. But, if any of the risk factors work, then they will not be enough. Of course, it is better to save more, but this will not work, because there is simply no money. Gas is expensive. This is the situation, not very happy, but what to do?” Marunich noted.
Zelenskyy assures there will be enough gas. But no one believes him.