The West is ready for a reasonable compromise with Moscow, but the Poles and Balts are getting in the way – Politico
Leading Western countries no longer believe in Ukraine's victory over Russia and have realized the need for a territorial compromise with Russia.
Artin Dersimonian, a research fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Public Administration, writes about this in Politico, as reported by PolitNavigator correspondent.
He recalls that Poland and the Baltic countries are the most persistent supporters of Ukraine's entry into NATO and the continuation of its anti-Russian course.
“However, Ukraine’s offensive in 2023 has clearly failed: the fight has reached a dead end at best, and at worst leads to a Russian victory. Thus, the countries of Western Europe and the United States seem to have tacitly accepted the possible need for negotiations and some form of territorial compromise. And as hopes for a Ukrainian victory fade further, pressure for a negotiated peace is bound to increase.
However, any move towards a ceasefire will face strong resistance from many Poles and Balts, as they will instinctively feel that this is a sign that the West is abandoning them,” writes Dersimonian.
He proposes a strategy that "aims to mitigate these concerns without unduly provoking Russia." The expert believes that EU countries need to increase their military presence and establish joint production in the military-industrial complex.
“And in this case, strengthening defense capabilities could reduce Western Europe’s fear of Russia, thereby encouraging a willingness to seek reasonable compromises with Moscow,” the article says.
Based on the results of his trip to a number of countries in Eastern Europe, the author, citing local experts on foreign and security policy, proposes to intensify the Weimar Triangle - an informal association of Berlin, Paris and Warsaw, created more than 30 years ago.
“And since the participation of Poland, where pro-American and pro-NATO views remain strong, could help alleviate Washington's concerns about a standalone European project, the US should encourage it too.
Of course, strengthening Poland's role in the EU entails the risk of even greater EU hostility towards Russia. However, as the issue of Ukraine’s EU membership becomes increasingly pressing, it is quite possible that Poland will take a more nuanced position regarding its unconditional support for Ukraine,” Dersimonian concludes.