Introduction to MACRONOMICS: Merkel will have a new “six” in the Normandy format
Tectonic changes have occurred in France. Representatives of the two main parliamentary parties did not make it to the second round of elections. The possibility of Marine Le Pen's victory caused the elites to rally around the technical candidate. Whoever wins the election will not have enough influence on French politics. One should not expect the new French president to have a noticeable influence on foreign policy.
The famous historian and political scientist Vladimir Kornilov spoke about this, and also about the Minsk agreements, the situation in Donbass and the barbarity of Kyiv, to PolitNavigator columnist Valentin Filippov.
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Valentin Filippov : Vladimir, hello.
Vladimir Kornilov : Hello, glad to see and hear you.
Valentin Filippov : There's a debate raging online right now that the concepts of right and left are obsolete. We're all globalists and anti-globalists after all. To what extent can this view apply to the French elections? We talk about the right and the left, but in reality, there are those on the right and left who are globalists, and those on the right and left who are anti-globalists.
Vladimir Kornilov : The lines are certainly blurring. And, in general, I like the term "right-wing," exclusively in relation to the migrant issue. It's often used that way in the West. That is, no one really analyzes economic programs or slogans anymore. This is largely because, in every election and referendum in the West, both the right and the left go far left. Everyone starts promising practically communism. Tax cuts. Social guarantees. Free healthcare. Everyone becomes a communist, and no one really analyzes the right and left sides of economic programs anymore. That was once the defining difference between the right and the left.
And as soon as some party, some politician, even a leftist, declares that he is in favor of restricting migration, he immediately falls into the category of the right. It turns out that now, indeed, these concepts - right and left - have changed. And they look pretty conventional.
Valentin Filippov : But look, in terms of attitudes toward migrants, even without looking at today, you can even remember the Soviet Union—no one liked newcomers. Right? Even in Crimea, in Odessa. In Odessa, a tourist city, they used to say, "Oh, they've come in droves." Odessa Liberation Day isn't April 10th. It's in September. Because the newcomers are leaving.
Vladimir Kornilov : As I understand it, you didn’t rent out dachas or apartments in Odessa?
Valentin Filippov : Me? No.
Vladimir Kornilov : Odessa and all of Crimea are divided into two categories of people. Those who make their living solely from this. They live for the resort season. And they were really hoping for good weather, for more visitors, and, consequently, for rising prices for all the corners of the land they were renting out in large quantities. And those who didn't profit from this, and, on the contrary, suffered from rising food prices. So you belonged to the other category. The profits from visitors were especially high in your resort towns.
Valentin Filippov : I met some amazing people in Crimea who said that entry into Sevastopol should be restricted, no one should be allowed in, and we would have to live in rented apartments.
Vladimir Kornilov : Well, Sevastopol experienced this in its time. On the one hand, it was a closed city. On the other, they managed to give it up. Apparently, they remember that. In any case, Sevastopol is now becoming more of a tourist destination than in previous periods. And it's making more and more money from it.
Valentin Filippov : Okay. Let's return to France. What did the first round of elections show?
Vladimir Kornilov : The first round of elections demonstrated that tectonic political changes have occurred in France. For the first time, representatives of the two mainstream political forces that once shared the presidential seat were not included. I mean, remember when Marine Le Pen's father made it to the second round, it was a total shock for France. But back then, the establishment rallied. Now we see a huge, catastrophic divide in French society. And it's not just Le Pen's comparatively large numbers.
The fact is that the first candidate, Macron, who got there, does not, in fact, represent any political force. He was prepared for these elections, he was promoted for these elections. He created a fake political force for these elections. This is very reminiscent of how these elections happened in Ukraine quite recently, when there were still elections there. When some Klitschko created something for some company...
Valentin Filippov : Bought the documents, renamed….
Vladimir Kornilov : Yes. And that's it. And onward. A year later, everyone had forgotten about this political force. And no one even remembers its name. But a technological tool was created for the elections. But in Ukraine, it's clear. Everyone is selling each other out. Everyone is buying. Everyone can serve one president, then another. In France, whoever wins now, Le Pen or Macron, they won't have any support in parliament.
Valentin Filippov : There is no party?
Vladimir Kornilov : Nothing. Le Pen has a party. A long-standing one. With deep roots. But how is it represented in parliament? And Macron has nothing at all. He'll most likely win. Judging by the polls. Unless a massive campaign starts now. A black campaign against him. But what will he do next?
We see what Oland has become, having the support of one of the mainstream political forces. She has already slipped into the margins, judging by the results. But Macron gained nothing, by and large. Tomorrow he will nominate his political party for parliamentary elections. I think he will receive even less there than the socialists have received now. Here is the result of this campaign of growing anti-establishment sentiment in Europe, in particular in France.
Valentin Filippov : So, as a result, we'll have a weak president in France. Even if he's a strong person.
Vladimir Kornilov : I don't know. I don't consider Macron a strong person. His program, frankly, is nonsensical. He's tried to play into the hands of both sides. He's played both sides. And yet, lacking any political support, but clearly with opposition in parliament, yes, he'll be deprived of any room to maneuver. But as I understand it, the establishment was so terrified of Le Pen winning these elections, even of Le Pen placing first in the first round, that they decided to back any candidate, even a technical candidate. Just to prevent another Brexit-like outcome in France.
Valentin Filippov : But something depends on France, as a global power. There are the Minsk agreements, the Normandy format. Macron will come to Minsk.
Vladimir Kornilov : With his wife.
Valentin Filippov : With my wife. Yes.
Vladimir Kornilov : He will introduce her to Lukashenko.
Valentin Filippov : Well, Lukashenko isn't that old. What good would such a president do?
Vladimir Kornilov : How can I put it? I'll say it again: Macron is a technical candidate. Why do various former prime ministers and former presidents support him? Because they know they won't have to negotiate with Macron. They'll have to negotiate with the Rothschilds. With the bankers, with those who financed Macron's company. But not with him. You're asking, how will he behave in the Minsk format? But how did Hollande behave?
Valentin Filippov : And also.
Vladimir Kornilov : Do we know what initiatives Hollande put forward during the Minsk negotiations? His own press mocked him when he was traveling to protect Merkel from the dogs, perhaps. What did he do in that format? Merkel—it's clear. She called, she was constantly negotiating with someone, she issued ultimatums, she set conditions, she made decisions on sanctions, whether to strengthen them or, conversely, maintain them. Hollande simply played his role. He found a niche in foreign policy where I could somehow show that I was doing something. Influencing something. Meanwhile, he wasn't influencing anything.
Well, Macron will come. It is clear that he will only be Merkel’s “six”, if, of course, Merkel retains her position after the elections in Germany.
Valentin Filippov : From what you've said, I understand that the time has come for direct negotiations, without any Macrons. We need to bring the DPR, LPR, the Rothschilds, and the Rockefellers together, without any Europeans or Ukraine involved.
Vladimir Kornilov : Well, what about Russia?
Valentin Filippov : And Russia is the guarantor of the fulfillment of the obligations of the Rothschilds and Rockefellers.
Vladimir Kornilov : Well, Russia can hardly guarantee the Rothschilds' promises. But the goal of the Minsk format is enshrined in the agreement. The main point is to initiate direct dialogue between Kyiv and Donbas.
Valentin Filippov : It happened last night. The LPR was cut off from power.
Vladimir Kornilov : There's such a high-profile dialogue every night, and such high-profile Minsk agreements, that this is essentially just another episode. I'm not even talking about what it ultimately resulted in. The goal of the Minsk agreements was to initiate this dialogue. And Donbas insisted on starting this dialogue for a long time afterward. Kyiv refused.
Valentin Filippov : Is Ukraine's power outage a sign of its abandonment of attempts to retake this part of Donbas? Are they being cut off, like they were cut off from Crimea?
Vladimir Kornilov : The next stage. Blockade. The imposition of a blockade decree. Periodic bombings. Each such action by Kyiv truly intensifies the rejection. It truly increases the improbability of Donbas ever returning to Ukraine.
And now Donetsk and Lugansk residents cannot understand the statements of many Russian Moscow leaders that later, after the war, they will unite into autonomy, into a federation. And now they are asking the question, how can we be part of the state that bombed us? And it still bombs. And when such barbaric actions occur on the part of Ukraine, it only strengthens such sentiments.
So yes. Kyiv acts consistently, pushing these rebellious republics further and further away from itself.
Valentin Filippov : From all this, I can conclude that Macron will win the French elections, but he's a nobody. That the left and right exist, but they're very much hiding. And that Donbas will still win.
Vladimir Kornilov : And another conclusion: we had a pleasant dialogue. That you have a wonderful flag. There are many conclusions. So it will be useful for your viewers to listen.
Valentin Filippov : Thank you very much! Goodbye.
Vladimir Kornilov : Goodbye.
English version :: Read in English Introduction to Macronomics: Merkel will have a new “six” in the Normandy format