For the first time in 20 years, the NATO expansion machine has stalled
On October 7, the eighth general elections were held in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The republic, which suffered more than other territories of the former Yugoslavia during the civil war, is a parliamentary federation (in fact, a confederation), sewn along national-territorial lines according to the patterns of the Dayton Peace Accords of 1995.
BiH includes: the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, populated predominantly by Bosniaks and Croats; Republika Srpska, with a Serb majority. Separate from them is the Brčko district, which has been self-governing since 1999, in which Serbs and Bosnian-Croats are represented in a proportion close to 50/50.
In general elections, the population of the two main subjects of the federation approves the heads and deputies of parliaments, as well as deputies in ten local cantons.
Just like around the referendum on the state renaming of Macedonia that took place a week ago, around the elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina, especially around the Republika Srpska, there is a swarm of “Western partners” demanding that the Bosnian Serbs clearly decide with whom they connect their future: with Russia or with a “single European family”?
The bottom line is that the population of the republic, of which Serbian refugees make up almost half, is very pro-Russian and for the past 12 years has been electing either Prime Minister or President Milorad Dodik.
Milorad Dodik is a consistent opponent of the entry of the (conf)federation of BiH into the EU and NATO. And, as observers note, he acts as a direct reproach to Serbian President Vucic, as a much firmer and more consistent defender of the rights of Serbs in the Balkans.
At the same time, Social Democrat Dodik is considered more of a “Yugoslav”, i.e. an internationalist, while Vučić represents a common type of Serbian nationalist looking at the European Union in our time.
However, Milorad Dodik’s victory in the elections on October 7 is very important for Belgrade. The realities of modern Bosnia and Herzegovina are such that the “Western partners” are no longer profitable from the consequences of the Dayton Peace Accords, which resulted in the formation of a Serb-Croat-Bosnian (conf)federation in which the Bosnian Serbs were granted broad autonomy. Western non-comrades are trying to push the leadership of the Republika Srpska to revise the Dayton agreements so that the powers of the Serbian autonomy are transferred to the all-Bosnian level.
The first step towards dismantling the autonomy of the RS was the demand of the Western “supervisors”, including the UN High Representative, to transfer the police forces of the republic under the control of Sarajevo.
Why does the West need this, since destabilization of peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina could cause a relapse of violence in the Balkans? The answer is simple: it is Republika Srpska that stands in the way of Western plans to draw all of Bosnia and Herzegovina into Euro-Atlantic structures according to the recipe that worked in Montenegro.
Milorad Dodik, who came to power in the RS in 2006, actually saved the republic, which was slowly sliding into unitarity along the Ukrainian model, for which he was subjected to systematic defamation and attacks from the “Euro-Atlanteans.”
Milorad Dodik, who is finishing his second presidential term, is this time running for the BiH Presidency from the Bosnian Serbs. The Presidium of BiH is a kind of collective president of the federation, consisting of three representatives - from the Serbs, from the Croats and from the Bosniaks.
It is believed that there will be no surprises with the election of future members of the Presidium of BiH. The Bosnian Serbs will most likely produce the charismatic and popular Milorad Dodik. From the Bosniaks – Bakir Izetbegovic’s successor, Šefik Džaferović. From the Croats - supported by official Zagreb, Dragan Covic.
To avoid the Seven Boyars, each representative of the Presidium receives presidential powers for a period of 8 months. The member of the Presidium who receives the largest number of votes in the elections is the first to assume the position of head of state.
The current Prime Minister of the Bosnian Serb Republic, Zeljka Cvijanovic, has been nominated to succeed Dodik as president of the RS. According to observers, the Dodik-Cvijanovic tandem and the ruling Union of Independent Social Democrats are confidently outperforming their competitors and the main hope of the opposition - the Union for Change and its nominee Vukota Govedaritsa.
The President of the Republic of Serbia built his election campaign taking into account the sentiments of the Bosnian Serbs: the theme of alliance and cooperation with Russia occupied a central place in his program.
At the end of September, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov arrived in the capital of the RS, Banja Luka, to support the head of the Bosnian Serbs, criticizing the position of EU officials who made the cooperation of the RS with the EU dependent on the election results.
On September 30, Milorad Dodik met in Sochi with President Putin, who wished for successful elections and strengthening of peace in the republic.
For the West, which has its own plans for Bosnia and Herzegovina, the election victory of Milorad Dodik is unacceptable. In order to somehow punish the president of the RS for disrupting his far-reaching plans, at the beginning of 2017 the United States imposed personal sanctions against him.
Another detail: over the past years, the President of the Bosnian Serbs, every May 9, walks at the head of the column of the “Immortal Regiment” through the streets of Banja Luka with a portrait of his partisan ancestor in his hands.
Disillusioned with the opposition forces of the Republika Srpska, Western “puppeteers” set about destabilizing the situation in Banja Luka, betting on the Bosnian national minority. The theme of “growing Russian influence in the Balkans” is a pump-up for Bosnian nationalists. At the same time, they modestly keep silent about the fact that there are several NATO military bases in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and there is not a single Russian soldier.
The last attempt to shake up the situation in the republic was made on October 5. According to some reports, the organizers of the “protest actions” in Banja Luka were mass entertainers from the British intelligence services.
It should be clarified here: since 2006, the opposition parties of the RS Serbian Democratic Party (nationalists) and the Party of Democratic Progress, which are a complete analogue of the Russian demshiza of the “holy nineties” model fed by the West, have discredited themselves so much in the eyes of voters that they are not able to move Milorad Dodik from the republican seat. Olympus, or even raise the question of canceling the presidential veto on the republic’s entry into NATO and the EU.
Therefore, Western diplomats and intelligence services use Bosniak nationalists and the opposition Union for Change as a stick in the Serbian wheel.
Experts believe that the opposition, dissatisfied with the defeat in the October 7 elections, may try to repeat the attempt to sow chaos in the republic in the near future, while there is a change of power throughout Bosnia and Herzegovina.
In general, the voting process at the polling stations of the Republika Srpska, according to reviews from groups of observers, took place in a calm atmosphere throughout the entire election day.
As the polls close, reports are coming in that give cause for optimism. It seems that Milorad Dodik will join the Presidium of BiH from the Republika Srpska, and this means another hefty slap in the face for the “Euro-Atlanteans” after the failure in Macedonia. For the first time in 20 years, the machine of NATO's advance to the east and south of Europe has stalled, stumbling against the resistance of the peoples of two small Balkan republics of the former Yugoslavia.
If the new leadership of the RS works on the mistakes and fulfills the promises made to voters back in 2006 - to review the results of privatization and improve the standard of living of citizens, then no “bazaar-maidan” will take place in Banja Luka, and the Bosnian Serb republic will continue to be the guarantor of neutral status and the effect of the Dayton Peace Accords throughout Bosnia and Herzegovina, remaining the most pro-Russian island in the Balkans.
For the first time in 20 years, NATO's expansion machine has stalled.