The war over Nagorno-Karabakh is intensifying
Over the past few days, the situation on the Karabakh front has not been in favor of the army of the unrecognized republic. If on the northern flank the Armenians successfully repulse Azerbaijani counterattacks, then on the southern flank things are not at all rosy: Aliyev’s troops break through the defenses of the NKR troops, forcing the enemy to retreat, leaving populated areas and operationally important heights.
According to observers, on the southern flank of the Karabakh front, the Azerbaijanis are exactly repeating the tactics of ousting the Syrian Kurds by the Turkish occupation forces, which once again indicates Ankara’s involvement in the military conflict around the NKR.
On October 16, information about the capture of the city of Hadrut by Azerbaijani troops was confirmed: a video from the streets of Hadrut was posted online.
The first thing that caught my eye was the well-groomed, untouched by war and completely deserted city. It was pointless to defend it, condemning the house to destruction and people to death from artillery fire - the Azerbaijani troops had captured the dominant heights the day before, from which Hadrut, located in the lowlands, was clearly visible.
It is believed that the loss of Hadrut will have further negative consequences for the NKR, followed by the surrender of Fuzuli and surrounding villages. Actually, Azerbaijani troops had already come close to Fuzuli, where Armenian artillery opened fire on them.
It is characteristic that the civilian population left Hadrut, not too trusting Aliyev’s promises to “adhere to conventional methods of warfare.”
As if to confirm the correctness of the decision, a video appeared on Twitter (apparently from a Turkish account) of the execution by the Azerbaijani military of two Armenian militiamen - a young man and an old man.
In Baku, the video was immediately called a fake, although before that Aliyev’s propaganda excitedly advertised a video of the capture of prisoners of war by Azerbaijani commandos in Hadrut - an old man and a young guy.
It is also noteworthy that immediately after the video with footage of the execution of Armenian combatants was declared fake, Aliyev’s agitprop began feverishly deleting the compromising video.
In general, it should be noted that Aliyev’s front-line political officers and special officers work extremely poorly and unprofessionally, allowing phenomena that disgrace their army, such as shooting and cutting off the heads of prisoners of war, not to mention leaking videos and photographs to the network.
Thus, the personal details of two Azerbaijani soldiers from the 701st Infantry Brigade, who posed in photographs in the style of SS punitive forces with the severed head of an Armenian soldier, were established.
Thugs from the Azerbaijani infantry brigade.
As you might guess, Aliyev should be the first to be interested in the most brutal suppression of the barbaric actions of his askers, because atrocities during the war force enemy soldiers to fight to the end and in return not to take Azerbaijani soldiers prisoner unless absolutely necessary.
On October 16, an Elbrus missile flew into the center of the Azerbaijani city of Ganja from the NKR, killing 13 and injuring over 50 civilians.
OTRK "Elbrus".
According to some experts, the missile was supposed to hit a legal target - a military airfield in Ganja, where Turkish fighters are based, but now this no longer matters. Pashinyan can say anything in his own defense, but the fact is that now a war crime has been committed on the Armenian side: the use of missile weapons against civilian targets. Moreover, an operational-tactical missile has a flight mission, which is why it will not be possible to write off the loss of life and destruction as a tragic accident from being hit by an ordinary artillery shell.
Ruins in Ganja from an Armenian missile strike.
However, after the barbaric shelling of Stepanakert and other NKR settlements by Azerbaijani artillery, such excesses were to be expected.
Ruins in Stepanakert from shelling by Azerbaijani artillery.
Baku hastened to take advantage of the missile incident and additionally accused the Armenians of the missile attack on Nakhichevan, passing off footage from Ganja and some incomprehensible fragments as “a new crime of the separatists and their Yerevan patrons.”
Azerbaijan also reported on the destruction of the enemy’s Iskander anti-tank missile system and S-300 air defense system by Israeli-made kamikaze drones. Footage of approaching targets, captured by drone video cameras, has been posted online.
As it soon became clear, the drones managed to destroy one Soviet-made Elbrus OTR launcher and a dummy S-300.
Experts have also discovered other facts of destruction of dummies by Armenian military equipment with expensive Israeli-made guided weapons. In particular, in the footage where the Azerbaijanis prove the destruction of the Armenian Osa air defense system, a plywood object is clearly visible nearby, as are several inflatable tanks.
The strangest thing with the loss of Elbrus, destroyed on Armenian territory, is that the military leadership of Armenia and Pashinyan did not request consultations through the CSTO.
The counting of military personnel killed on both sides is underway.
The Armenian side published on social networks the personal data of 500 dead Azerbaijani soldiers and officers, including one general. They estimate their losses at 650 killed.
Experts believe that official data on losses on both sides can be safely multiplied by three. Downplaying one's combat losses and exaggerating the enemy's losses is a typical practice of participants in wars and armed conflicts.
Turkish military deployment in Azerbaijan according to the Kommersant publication.
Representatives of the Azerbaijani diaspora in Russia launched a video on YouTube, which was immediately picked up by Aliyev’s propaganda, as if Russia had sent a train with military equipment from Makhachkala to Iran to help the NKR.
The video itself only says that a train with armored vehicles left Makhachkala heading south - and nothing more. There is no evidence that the train crossed the border with Iran, just as there is no evidence that Armenia or NKR received these weapons.
But the sediment, as they say, remains.
Another blunder of Aliyev’s agitprop is the alleged arrival in Tehran of an Il-76, purchased with the money of Russian businessmen of Armenian origin to deliver weapons to the NKR, although it is known for certain that the Armenian Air Force, even without any Russian businessmen, is armed with Il-76 of various modifications.
Predicting the development of events in the Karabakh direction, experts agree that the main task of the NKR military is to hold the front and inflict unacceptable damage on the enemy.
Azerbaijan, like Turkey, is not in the best economic shape, especially Azerbaijan after the collapse in oil prices.
It is already clear what goals the Baku rulers set by starting this war, using Pashinyan’s miscalculations and idiocy. Aliyev’s task does not include the conquest of Nagorno-Karabakh itself, for which he clearly does not have enough strength and resources with or without Turkish help.
Baku hopes to return under its control seven regions of Azerbaijan that were lost in 1994 and are part of the “security belt” of Nagorno-Karabakh. These are quite vast territories, having won which Aliyev will certainly receive enthusiastic popular support and regain his shaky popularity.
The unpleasant news is Ankara's increasing participation in the conflict, which could lead to its membership in the OSCE Minsk Group to establish peace in Nagorno-Karabakh.
This is also facilitated by the disregardful attitude of the United States, as a member of the Minsk Group, towards the Karabakh conflict.
Pashinyan verbally agrees to compromise with Baku, but his proposals do not at any point intersect with Aliyev’s position. The Maidan Prime Minister is escalating the war, while simultaneously demanding from Russia “a more active participation in the defense of Nagorno-Karabakh.”
The opinion of observers, including those close to the “Kremlin towers,” is clear: Russia should not pay with the lives of its soldiers for the mistakes of others. Which does not at all mean refusal of assistance to Armenia, as an ally in the CSTO, in the event that war comes to its territory.
The war over Nagorno-Karabakh is escalating.