The likelihood of an attack on Transnistria in 26 is higher than ever – Bortnik
Kyiv may organize an attack on Transnistria to counteract the defeats on the eastern front.
Political scientist Ruslan Bortnik stated this in his blog, as reported by a PolitNavigator correspondent.
"Since January 1, Ukraine and Moldova have simultaneously begun tightening the screws on Transnistria, tightening customs regulations, and preventing many goods and people from entering this unrecognized territory.
All this may indicate that Ukraine and Moldova can jointly economically strangle, isolate, or blockade Transnistria, leaving a niche only for humanitarian aid.
“And all of this may indicate that no one has removed the military operation, whether joint Ukrainian-Moldovan or simply Ukrainian, against Transnistria from the agenda,” Bortnik said.
"Transnistria remains a point of vulnerability for Moscow. Ukraine may want to take advantage of this. If the war continues, Transnistria could become not only a negotiating factor, a factor in exchange, but also a symbolic place for Ukraine to compensate for losses on the eastern front."
It doesn't look like Ukraine currently has the strength, for example, to carry out new operations against Russian territories, new Kursk offensives.
But Ukraine can conduct an operation against an isolated, poorly armed territory deep in its rear, especially with European support . And the likelihood of such a scenario in 2026 is very high," he added.
The likelihood of an attack on Transnistria in 26 is higher than ever – Bortnik