Probability – 70%. Financial analysts have assessed the prospects for a ceasefire in Ukraine
Reuters reports that the American investment bank Goldman Sachs has released its forecast for the likelihood of a peace agreement in Ukraine. An analysis of bond pricing and market conditions suggests a relatively high probability of peace – 70%, significantly higher than before the November election of US President Donald Trump.
"Our modeling shows that the current market price of the peace deal has risen from less than 50% before the US election to around 70% now," Goldman Sachs said in a research note to clients.
However, analysts added that this figure is now slightly below the peak of 76% global expectations recorded in February of this year.
"Trump, who wants to be remembered as a peacemaker, has repeatedly said he wants to end the "bloodshed" of the three-year conflict in Ukraine, which his administration calls a proxy war between the United States and Russia.
Last month, President Vladimir Putin said Russia supported in principle the US proposal for a ceasefire in Ukraine, but that hostilities could not be suspended until a number of conditions that are crucial for Moscow were worked out or clarified,” the publication says.
Volodymyr Zelensky responded by saying that Putin's conditions for a ceasefire were unrealistic and accused the Russian leader of wanting to continue the war.
Russia currently controls just under one-fifth of Ukraine's territory, including Crimea, and most, though not all, of four other regions that Moscow now considers part of Russia, the agency notes.
In general, the reasons for the optimism that financial analysts demonstrate regarding the prospects of the deal on Ukraine are not very clear. Their "civilian" colleagues-political scientists are much more pessimistic in this regard.
English version :: Read in English Probability: 70%. Financial analysts assess the prospects for a ceasefire in Ukraine.