Romania's sovereignists are rapidly gaining popularity: the country does not want to become a second Ukraine
The Romanian parliamentary elections , held on December 1 between the first and second rounds of the presidential election, amid a very high turnout for the country (over 52%), yielded a curious result. Right-wing parties critical of the EU, which successfully performed, received approximately a third of the votes.
Igor Shornikov , Director of the Institute of Social and Political Research and Regional Development and Associate Professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, commented on the situation following the parliamentary elections and the run-off presidential elections in Romania, which is almost certainly facing a power shake-up, as well as the reasons for the rise of Euroscepticism in the country, for PolitNavigator.
PolitNavigator: In the parliamentary elections, the Social Democrats gained almost a quarter of the votes and improved their positions after the failure of their candidate, Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu, in the first round of the presidential elections on November 24, but the right-wing Eurosceptics still had a serious success. Three parties of this kind gained a total of 32% - for Romania, a lot more than ever.
In second place is the far-right radical party "Alliance for the Unity of Romanians" with 18% of the votes, and Romanian voters in the most successful EU countries - Italy, Great Britain, Germany, Spain - voted for it especially actively. What does this mean?
Igor Shornikov: This speaks to the Romanians' disappointment. They integrated into Europe in 2007, but it didn't provide the development boost many expected, nor did it resolve social problems. Quite the contrary, many sectors of the economy simply disappeared, unable to compete with major European manufacturers. National science, with the exception of history and philology, has ceased to exist, having lost its industrial base. The energy sector is unstable due to the rapid adoption of renewable energy sources. The number of jobs in the country has plummeted, while the standard of living has stagnated.
Millions of working-age Romanians were forced to leave their country to earn money; young people are initially oriented towards emigration. But even in the leading EU countries, Romanians have failed to find the prosperity they seek; the European Union has turned out to be not such a hospitable place as it might seem. Low-skilled and low-paid labor without sufficient social guarantees, inaccessible healthcare, expensive housing – it seems that this is not how Romanians imagined life in Britain or Germany.
So Euroscepticism as a mood of the masses is partly the flip side of inflated expectations from European integration, and partly the result of Brussels’ suicidal economic policy, which is becoming noticeable to the average person.
PolitNavigator: Observers note that the names of two of the seven parties that entered the Romanian parliament contain a phrase about saving the country: the Union for the Rescue of Romania (USR) and Save Romania (SOS Ro). Romania has long been a member of the European Union, and from the beginning of next year it will become a full member of the Schengen zone. What are they going to save it from?
Igor Shornikov: Romania must be saved from war. Romania is currently a crucial logistics hub for arms deliveries to Ukraine; previously, it was a transit country for Ukrainian grain. Romania is a permanent training ground for NATO multinational exercises, and it is also home to American troops and missile defense systems.
Even ordinary Romanians are beginning to understand that their country is being used to the fullest extent for confrontation with Russia and can easily be thrown into the furnace of military conflict by their Anglo-Saxon allies. The Romanians categorically do not want to become a second Ukraine.
For the Romanian elites, full-fledged Euro-Atlantic integration was seen as a convenient tool for solving their national problems, namely, implementing expansion in the eastern direction. Bucharest's absorption of Moldova and some parts of the Odessa and Chernivtsi regions generally fit into NATO's strategy of approaching the Russian borders.
However, the harsh rebuff that NATO expansion received in Ukraine has seriously shaken the Romanians' faith in the correctness of the strategic choice of the current elites. In fact, for almost two decades in NATO and the EU, the Romanians have not received anything significant in the economy, politics, or social development. Only an outflow of population and economic stagnation.
But they feel the threat of being drawn into war very well. That is why the electorate is moving from globalist politicians to non-systemic leaders. But the “non-systemic” ones are the same adherents of “Great Romania”, who put the interests of the Romanian nation above the interests of the surrounding nations, and in clear accordance with the principles of Codreanu and Antonescu.
Only this time, the interests of self-preservation of the Romanian nation require abandoning military adventures and a speedy exit from NATO and the EU. And some nationalist politicians, not afraid to go against the liberal mainstream, are already saying this out loud.
PolitNavigator: It is still unclear how the process of creating a ruling coalition will go, but it looks like it will not be easy. The current Romanian parliament has become more diverse: there are as many as seven political forces, and there will be two new party factions. Is it possible that the political system of Romania will be destabilized, similar to, for example, Bulgaria, where it has not been possible to create a stable government?
Igor Shornikov: Romania is clearly beginning a process of political system transformation. It can't be immediate or painless. The "sovereignists" are becoming a new pole, gaining popularity—and the faster it will grow, the better Russia's fortunes on the world stage and the worse things become for the globalists. But their ideological platform will prevent them from moving closer to Russia; worse, their growth and further evolution could lead to an even greater confrontation with Moscow.
In a conceptual sense, the idea of national greatness at the expense of neighbors is incompatible with the principles of equality of peoples, free development and international cooperation that Russia promotes.
In Romania, political forces more pragmatic than those who currently control power have not yet emerged. But their policies have gone bankrupt. So Romania faces a rather difficult period of internal upheaval.
PolitNavigator: The Constitutional Court of Romania has approved the results of the first round of the presidential elections – on December 8, the second round will feature the Euro-pessimist Calin Georgescu and the leader of the pro-European liberal Union for the Rescue of Romania Elena Lasconi. How can the parliamentary elections influence the final of the presidential elections? What are the candidates’ chances?
Igor Shornikov: The parliamentary elections confirm Georgescu's electoral success, which easily attracted not only the far-right but also the protest electorate. It's also significant that Georgescu has been noticed by members of the incoming Trump administration, and they apparently see him as a viable alternative to the current elites.
Robert Kennedy Jr. planned to visit Romania immediately before the runoff and meet with Georgescu. This could hardly be considered anything other than a sign of support. "Make Romania Great Again" —that 's the baseball cap President Trump once gave to Romanian President Iohannis, whose term is currently ending. The globalist stooge didn't appreciate the symbolism of the gift at the time. Georgescu, however, would certainly have taken such a gift as a call to action. Trump needs politicians like that in Eastern Europe.
Nevertheless, the chances of Elena Lasconi, who is verbally ready to fulfill any whim of NATO and the EU, now look preferable. Her figure is quite capable of consolidating systemic parties around herself and it is she who will most likely be supported by Brussels. Most likely, it is she who will become the new president of Romania, but the phenomenon of Georgescu will still make itself felt.
PolitNavigator: Moldovan Economy Minister Dumitru Alaiba said that the events in Romania "have a very strong impact on the fate of Moldovans, all citizens of the Republic of Moldova - with or without Romanian citizenship." What does he mean?
Igor Shornikov: He's most likely referring to Moldova's prospects for European integration. European integration remains the banner of Maia Sandu and the PAS party. Therefore, the strengthening of Eurosceptics in Romania could jeopardize not so much Moldova's integration prospects as the political future of PAS. This is precisely what worries them.
For decades, Romania has been Moldova's "advocate" in the process of European integration. Changes in Bucharest could mean a revision of this policy, which means that Brussels will hear less about Moldova and gradually "forget" about the European ambitions of the current authorities. This is the worst-case scenario for PAS. This is especially worrying for them ahead of the parliamentary elections, which are scheduled for the first half of 2025.
English version :: Read in English : The popularity of sovereigntists is rapidly growing in Romania: the country does not want to become another Ukraine.