Awaiting a major denouement: Moldova has cut all ties with Transnistria.
At a recent meeting of the PMR Ministry of Foreign Affairs, it was stated that dialogue between the banks of the Dniester is paralyzed.
Moldova's new political representative, Valeriu Chiveri, ignores meetings, while his predecessors openly boast that they "buried" the "5+2" format five years ago.
Igor Shornikov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, explains why Chisinau is refusing to negotiate with Tiraspol and what will happen next regarding the settlement on the Dniester.
What is the purpose of Chisinau's "avoidance strategy"? The Moldovan side systematically declines meeting invitations. Does this signal a final shift from diplomacy to pressure tactics?
Chisinau adopted a pressure strategy in its relations with Tiraspol in 2001, when President Voronin, abrogating previous agreements, imposed a customs blockade on Transnistria. Since then, Moldova has conducted dialogue sporadically, mostly through clenched teeth, using coercion through intermediaries. It has never abandoned its strategy of pressure and economic strangulation against the PMR over the past quarter century.
The current "avoidance tactics" are evidence of the Moldovan leadership's total lack of independence in matters of foreign policy. If the overseers in Brussels, London, and Washington can't yet decide what to do with Moldova and Transnistria, then those in Chisinau are even less likely to have any vision.
They avoid meetings with Tiraspol only because they have not received instructions.
Former Moldovan Deputy Prime Minister Alexandru Flenchea stated on social media that it was an "honor" for him not only to create the "5+2" format in 2005 with V. Şova, but also to "make it history" in 2019. Is this recognition Moldova's official position?
The brief episode of active Chisinau diplomacy on the Transnistrian issue, which occurred during the deputy prime ministership of Vasile Şova, can be considered a final attempt to keep the Moldovan state within the borders of the former MSSR. At that time, a fragile geopolitical balance had developed in the region, which Şova was eager to exploit.
If he had succeeded, Moldova would today be a truly neutral state, albeit not without internal conflicts. But Sova wanted to achieve full sovereignty for the Republic of Moldova at the cost of abolishing Transnistrian statehood. Tiraspol, predictably, opposed this, and Sova, realizing his country would not have another chance, left, slamming the door.
What Alexandru Flenchea is saying today about the "5+2" is merely a tribute to the current political climate. The current regime desperately wants to bury the "5+2," and Flenchea is playing along. I think neither Tiraspol nor the international mediators should pay attention to the information noise coming out of Chisinau. The fate of the "5+2" will be decided in Moscow and Washington.
– How long can the imitation of dialogue between the banks of the Dniester last in conditions of regional instability?
The Moldovan-Transnistrian settlement has become part of a regional reorganization, the main parameters of which are being determined within the context of the Ukrainian crisis. The situation on the Dniester will likely stagnate until lasting peace is achieved in Ukraine. But when that happens, the mediators will make Chisinau and Tiraspol an offer they cannot refuse. Theoretically, the parties have a chance to reach an agreement without the direct involvement of the great powers, but for that to happen, there must be independent politicians in Chisinau, not puppets. As it is... The winner of the Ukrainian crisis will decide everything.
– What tools does Tiraspol have left to protect citizens' interests amid the blockade of negotiations?
Transnistria has one ally, one protector, one bargaining chip, and one only possible future that entails preserving its statehood: Russia. Moscow, by its very existence, creates room for Tiraspol to maneuver.
Experience in recent years shows that Tiraspol has only one recourse against Chisinau's arbitrary rule: an appeal to the international community. And in this "community," only Moscow's voice in support of the PMR can carry any weight.
English version :: Read in English : In anticipation of a major denouement: Moldova has cut off all contacts with Transnistria.