“There are almost no Russian-language signs left in Minsk”
Former Russian Ambassador to Minsk Mikhail Babich pursued a tough policy and won the admiration of pro-Russian Belarusians – in contrast to local officials who are strongly opposed to the implementation of the Union Treaty and integration with Russia. Artem Agafonov, head of the Belarusian public organization "Civil Accord," explained this in an interview with PolitNavigator observer Valentin Filippov.
Valentin Filippov : Greetings to the Belarusian Soviet Socialist Republic. There are rumors now that Babich, the former Russian ambassador to Minsk, will be transferred to the Donbas. Is it Belarus's misfortune and Donbas's good fortune to have Babich?
Artem Agafonov : It depends... He's certainly remembered here. The pro-Russian community was delighted with him, especially in contrast to the previous ambassador. But he certainly put the authorities on edge—they're trying to shout loudly about how they're being deprived of their sovereignty and all that... And for Donbas, if he gets there, he'll be a good candidate. He's a very active, proactive person, very strong-willed, so he'll be a good candidate.
Valentin Filippov : How fair was Babich's criticism of the Belarusian leadership? Are integration processes really stalled?
Artem Agafonov : Our integration processes are slowing down. Especially considering this whole situation has been going on for over 20 years. And there hasn't been much progress in the last 18 years, I think. So, while Alexander Grigoryevich initially clearly wanted to go to Moscow, where Putin now resides…
Valentin Filippov : Well, yes....
Artem Agafonov : … somewhere nearby. Well, now that he's no longer eligible for it, all of this has given way to rhetoric about defending sovereignty, independence, and so on. And then there's the latest trend—a kind of soft Belarusification. Now this is being slowed down in every way possible; now they want more economic integration. And what kind of integration? We want duty-free imports, subsidies, and so on, and then we'll figure it out.
Valentin Filippov : The economic systems of Russia and Belarus are not exactly different, but they do have their own peculiarities…
Artem Agafonov : Of course there is.
Valentin Filippov : Perhaps the Belarusian industrial complex really will be under threat if it is integrated into the general system?
Artem Agafonov : I don't think so. Firstly, because if we integrate with Russia economically, we'll gain a powerful sales market, and secondly, there's the potential for strategic investors from Russia. After all, a significant portion of Belarusian industry and agriculture aren't particularly profitable, to put it mildly. There are a ton of problematic factories, and agriculture—most of it is heavily indebted, unprofitable, and so on.
Valentin Filippov : But when the oligarchs come, they'll grab the most profitable assets first and, God forbid, even "saw them up." Belarus is a state-owned capitalist country, after all; all enterprises are essentially state-owned. And, naturally, under Russian law, the question of their privatization will arise.
Artem Agafonov : Well, I don't know. I don't see a big problem with that. I mean, the oligarch, even though the 90s are over, is also primarily interested in profit. Secondly, there are certain conditions for privatization, meaning a business plan that must be implemented, and so on. And these are all solvable issues; they can all be resolved. The other thing is, without support from a strong Russia, we'll collapse: 50% of our total trade turnover comes from Russia. So, if we have problems in the Russian market, then we have huge problems with our economy.
Valentin Filippov : It's good when you talk about such a soft, gentle, affectionate Belarusianization...
Artem Agafonov : That's our term.
Valentin Filippov : How does this manifest itself? Are schools forcibly switching to Belarusian, for example?
Artem Agafonov : No, schools are mostly Russian-language, especially in the cities, but it's a matter of parental preference, as the overwhelming majority of parents want their children to attend Russian schools, and they do attend Russian schools. Another issue is that city signs, signage, and so on are gradually being translated; that's happening. There's more advertising on television. They're simply trying to increase the amount of Belarusian language spoken.
Valentin Filippov : That is, they are introducing legislative quotas for the use of the Belarusian language in the media.
Artem Agafonov : Well, they are unofficial...
Valentin Filippov : That is, like in Ukraine in the 90s, let’s say, unobtrusively.
Artem Agafonov : Well, maybe, I don't know, frankly, what was going on in Ukraine in the 90s. Sometimes it becomes quite noticeable here, that is, in Minsk there's almost not a single Russian-language sign or house address left. Firstly, they translate it into Belarusian, and secondly, there's also this, in my opinion, perversion called Belarusian Latin—that is, it's written in Latin script, and the letters are sort of Polish-Czech with these Czech gacheks...
Valentin Filippov : Wait, what's the rationale for this? Or is it official?
Artem Agafonov : This is the official transliteration. It supposedly existed historically during the time when it was part of Poland.
Valentin Filippov : So, by law, the Belarusian language uses this alphabet?
Artem Agafonov : No, by law it's Cyrillic, but transliteration into the Latin alphabet is official, and it's far from international standards. That is, either the English transliteration or something close to it is usually used. Here, with the superscripts, it's unreadable, neither for Belarusians, who mostly write in Cyrillic, nor for foreigners, who are accustomed to English script. It's unclear for whom, but it's supposedly cool. And local nationalists are absolutely delighted.
Valentin Filippov : Are there many nationalists?
Artem Agafonov : Well, there are not that many of them, but they are noisy.
Valentin Filippov : But are they stubborn?
Artem Agafonov : Yes.
Valentin Filippov : It so happened that I spent my life in Odessa, a city tightly surrounded by Ukraine on all sides. These nationalists, as a rule, aren't just isolated. Where do they get their support from in Belarus?
Artem Agafonov : Well, where do they get their funding from? Well, it's all those same Western foundations, the NED, IRI, NDI, Swedish foundations, Polish ones, and so on. That is, the entire system that's being financed. Well, I don't know about Soros; Soros isn't here. All their main offices are in Vilnius, Stockholm, Poland.
Valentin Filippov : So, they have to go abroad for money and instructions?
Artem Agafonov : Yes. It's 180 km from Minsk to Vilnius.
Valentin Filippov : Yes, I understand, right next to each other, that’s all.
Artem Agafonov : Is it a long trip?
Valentin Filippov : When you're traveling for money, all distances seem short. But isn't this Ukrainian scenario of separating the Church and splitting Orthodoxy possible in Belarus?
Artem Agafonov : There's talk, there's some information leaking out there, that we'll push for our own tomos. But the fact is that the Belarusian autocephalous Church (it doesn't legally exist) is currently comprised of two half-crazy people dressed as priests and maybe 50 of their flock. It's an arithmetic error; they're absolute freaks, they have no influence whatsoever. I can't even imagine how to build anything on this foundation.
Valentin Filippov : Many events in Ukraine initially seemed insignificant.
Artem Agafonov : Well, at least in your country, the "Autocephalous Church" was something serious. A large number of parishes, but here – nothing. At the moment, they're really a bunch of freaks. They're holding some kind of prayer services in Kurapaty, and recently they tried to bring them to the square. The first time, about 30-40 people showed up, the second time, maybe two showed up.
Valentin Filippov : I remember that in the 1990s, Alexander Lukashenko's popularity in Russia was higher than Boris Yeltsin's, and everyone was saying, "Well, now we'll create one state and Lukashenko will be president." But today, Lukashenko has a serious rival in Moscow who would defeat him in the election. What integration steps can we expect now?
Artem Agafonov : I think our leadership will shirk the issue now. The problem is, the issue has already been raised, bluntly, and they'll still take some steps. They're forced to, otherwise there will be a reduction in economic subsidies and, perhaps, even some market disruption. That would be quite unpleasant for the economy.
But in what area? Maybe they will propose some kind of integration economic projects. In particular, regarding privatization. Maybe we would like to create some kind of supranational bodies, again in the sphere of economic regulation, because we are not yet ready to undertake such serious and large-scale political integration here.
Valentin Filippov : We're not ready yet. We need to wait for the next political cycle. But in foreign policy, is there a chance that Belarus will go along with Russia? That any economic sanctions Moscow is imposing against Ukraine will be supported by Minsk? That there will be political steps like recognizing Crimea?
Artem Agafonov : It's the same situation. They'll be evading similar issues here, too. In terms of economic sanctions, Russia is our number one economic partner, Ukraine is our number two, which also accounts for about 15-17% of the market. This includes oil products and so on. Another issue is that Kolomoisky is now emerging, a powerful player who will specifically lobby for the oil industry, so there could be a conflict here.
In general, as for the recognition of Crimea, well, the same story happened with the recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, which we also did not recognize. Here, too, there is a fairly strong pro-Western lobby, headed by the Minister of Foreign Affairs. Our minister is a fairly pro-Western comrade. And Western comrades will also do their best to prevent such political steps.
Valentin Filippov : And, in general, what is the public's attitude toward unification with Russia in Belarus? If a referendum were held today, for example.
Artem Agafonov : Well, I think that now, based on my feelings, maybe 30-40 percent will be in favor of such a complete reunification, accession.
Well, in general, there will be an overwhelming majority for such a close union, following the example of European Union integration of this level, that is, while maintaining statehood, but with such a powerful long-term strategic union.
That is, we don’t have many Westerners who “Belarus to Europe” and so on. In the end, people understand perfectly well that this will not bring anything, it will only bring destruction of industry, loss of jobs, mass migration of labor, well, there is simply an example of neighbors from the north, where the same Lithuania, Latvia, 30 percent have already emigrated.
Valentin Filippov : From time to time, information comes in that you in Belarus are having some difficulties with holding the Immortal Regiment.
Artem Agafonov : Well, in general, our government really dislikes any movement it can't fully control. So, we have the official "Belarus Remembers" march: it's pretty much the same thing, but with a different colored ribbon. It's its own brand, it's where the officialdom comes in, it's the same thing.
The Immortal Regiment is a more popular movement, quite massive, but now in Minsk, instead of a procession, only a small rally has been agreed upon, plus now a new law has been introduced, according to which for holding mass events it is necessary, for example, to pay for security to our valiant police, and pay quite serious money.
Valentin Filippov : Logical, logical. But can you imagine if they start dispersing you for that kind of money?
Artem Agafonov : No, that's just... For the Immortal Regiment to be dispersed, that would be a horrific sight. I don't think they'll allow it. Well, last year they approved it at the very last minute, and there were also problems there, they had to pass through metal detectors, and they created a bottleneck. As for the symbols, the St. George ribbon, for example, it's not banned, but it's considered undesirable.
Valentin Filippov : I don't understand the St. George ribbon. It was created specifically as a supranational, transnational symbol. That is, precisely to avoid any fuss, so that it wouldn't come from the authorities, but rather something people would wear and act as a unified whole. Well, Ukraine is understandable; Ukraine, on the contrary, is fighting to avoid being a unified whole. But what about Belarus?
Artem Agafonov : Well, apparently they don't want to be a unified whole either. They came up with this red-and-green one with an apple flower—well, it's a complete travesty, really. Speaking of Victory Day, there wasn't even a flag like that back then, but we have our own. And now they're all over this, this flower...
Valentin Filippov : I see. We'll share the memory…
Artem Agafonov : Yes, yes. And the fact that the Immortal Regiment marches here freely—I don't know, but in Berlin and New York, there are problems with that in Minsk. That's not very good.
Valentin Filippov : Well, thank you very much. I hope Belarus will take the right path.
Artem Agafonov : I really hope so too.
Valentin Filippov : Well, at least not in Ukrainian.
Artem Agafonov : Oh, that's true...
English version :: Read in English "There are almost no Russian-language signs left in Minsk"