In Kyiv, November was called the month of the end of hostilities
November should be the month of the denouement of all military actions in Ukraine this year. Elections to the House of Representatives will be held in the United States, and this will free Kyiv’s hands, and replenishment of the mobilized forces will come from the Russian side.
Ukrainian political scientist Ruslan Bortnik expressed this opinion on the Politika Online channel, as reported by a PolitNavigator correspondent.
“The United States is trying, on the one hand, to keep the war under control, to prevent escalation and transformation into a global conflict, and the exit of this war from the territory of Eastern Europe to other world regions, which is fraught with the dispersion of forces and the globalization of the defragmentation of the world. And secondly, there are elections in the United States and few people pay attention to the fact that the task of Sullivan and Biden is to prevent any crisis in Ukraine that could affect the course of the election campaign these days.
Therefore, Sullivan comes to Ukraine and talks about tanks, and on the other hand, the Wall Street Journal writes that it is necessary to give a public signal on the part of Ukraine about its readiness to negotiate. For Sullivan, this is a demonstration that the Biden administration does not abandon the policy of supporting Ukraine, and on the other hand, it is holding the hands of the Ukrainian leadership so that Ukraine does not launch a counter-offensive or a new offensive in the south of Ukraine, in Kherson or in the East.
Because a new offensive is fraught with increased destruction and intensification of hostilities, and a dangerously possible defeat, and the start of a Russian counter-offensive, which will generally kill Biden’s policy on Ukraine and the loss of votes within the United States,” the expert noted.
The Ukrainian political scientist is confident that the second reason for the decisive battle in November is the exhaustion of both sides.
“A truce when hostilities stop due to weather conditions is more likely today,” Bortnik suggested. – Our army and the Russian army are largely exhausted. And it takes time to regroup, to form new reserves and, possibly, an offensive.
November should be the month of denouement, and in the future a surge is possible at the end of January-beginning of February, new attempts at offensives and attempts to turn the situation in their favor. A very important situation will be in the rear, since this is already a war of attrition. It is very important to preserve the infrastructure and maintain the population on the territory of your state, because otherwise it is pointless and very difficult to carry out large-scale operations with such huge armies.”
He believes that the main military-political chess game is being played around Kherson, the imminent capture of which was predicted by Western experts.
“The same Institute for the Study of War a month ago assured that Ukraine would take Kherson. This did not happen. In fact, Zelensky said directly about this that the arrival of a mass of mobilized people allowed Russia to create a reserve in this direction and reserves in the depths of the territory that could be used for a counter-offensive, Bortnik noted. – Today, despite the fact that both sides in this direction are exhausted and exhausted, both still have some kind of certain reserve.
A situation arises, like in the 12th round of boxing, when both are tired, both understand that there is still strength for one round, but if you miss, you can get an uppercut. Both sides dug in well, prepared for defensive actions; the one who first launches an offensive and throws in all reserves may be exhausted in battles and miss a counterattack. Moreover, in a wide area, both in Nikolaev, and Krivoy Rog, and in the Zaporozhye direction.”
Kyiv has named November the month of the outbreak of hostilities.