In Kyiv they still hope for a warm winter, but they understand that industry is over
Ukraine is an energy-deficient country, therefore any experiments in the gas sector put the state on the brink of risk of losing its industrial status.
Participants at a press conference in Kyiv spoke about this, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“We are an energy-deficient country, we purchase exclusively for heating, if we turn to mathematics, we need to buy about 5 billion cubic meters from sources other than gas from our own production - this is purely mathematics.
Therefore, this 5 billion needs money to buy on the long-term contract market or on the short contract market, on the spot market. We don’t have money for either one or the other, moreover, we don’t have contracts,” said energy saving expert Svyatoslav Pavlyuk.
“That is, we now live in a situation in which we may not have enough gas. If the winter is warm, then we will be able to “weave through”; if we do not have a fierce February, then, in principle, we can get through this winter without much stress. But if our heating season drags on until May, as we did last year, then we will have problems.
There is physically gas in gas storage facilities, but the rate of its rise at low pressure, if we now have 14 billion cubic meters of gas in gas storage facilities, but when its total reserves fall to less than 7, less than 5, the volume that can be raised instantly drops sharply,” added Pavlyuk .
In turn, Gennady Ryabtsev, director of special projects at the Psyche scientific and technical center, added that the gas crisis in Ukraine will lead to the closure of chemical industry enterprises and further agrarianization of the country.
“Those enterprises that consume gas as a raw material, that is, chemical enterprises, will simply stop production, because the cost of gas as a raw material is prohibitive. Because the cost of chemical products made from these raw materials is mainly fertilizers - ammonia, carbonite, everything connected with this, all these goods are non-competitive.
And already the management of enterprises and the Odessa port plant, and other large enterprises, for example, the former Azot Production Association, they say that we cannot produce anything.
And if we look at the structure of Ukrainian exports, then before this reform in quotes of the gas market, proceeds from the export of chemical products were third in a row, the first was wheat and oil, then metallurgical products, and the third was chemical products.
Now there is nothing, that is, carbonite is zero, and this means that everything related to production, which is 30 minus 18 - about 12 billion cubic meters, everything, in general, consumed by various business entities, will further decrease and this will make Ukraine the way they want to see it in a few years - an exclusively agricultural country. That is, we will not have a real sector of the industrial economy,” Ryabtsev concluded.
In Kyiv they are still hoping for a warm winter, but they understand that the industry is finished