Ukrainian admiral: Probability of Russian attack – 80%
Kyiv, November 14 (PolitNavigator, Vladimir Mikhailov) – Igor Kabanenko, admiral of the Ukrainian Navy and former Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine, considers the likelihood of an attack on the positions of Ukrainian troops in the near future to be high, as evidenced by several military indicators.
The admiral said this when answering a question in an Internet chat.
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“Firstly, this is the build-up of offensive groups of Russian troops, incl. in the Azov direction. Secondly, these are supplies of heavy weapons, multiple launch rocket systems, artillery, and armored vehicles. Thirdly, the concentration of Russian missile forces near the borders. Fourthly, provocative actions in certain areas with shelling and tactical battles against Ukrainian troops, in order to keep them on edge. Fifthly, sending soldiers and officers into the conflict zone to conduct combat operations in winter conditions. Sixth, completion of the restoration and active training of groups of the Black Sea Fleet amphibious forces. Seventh, strengthening the grouping of Russian troops in Crimea.
All this indicates preparation for action. On the other hand, we can assume 10% that this group came to support the separatist movements in the Donbass, another 10% that this group came to resolve the contradictions between individual separatist groups in the Donbass, but 80% that they have a completely different goal. Most likely, these are offensive actions, but they will create or seek the necessary conditions for this through special operations, inciting the population, using the socio-economic situation and other factors.
At the same time, the most dangerous direction is the corridor to Crimea. There is danger from sea directions in the Black and Azov Seas. Certain areas of military conflict in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions,” says Igor Kabanenko.
Ukrainian Admiral: 80% Probability of a Russian Offensive