Scheduled exercises to eliminate Pashinyan's forces in Armenia have begun.
Gazprom Armenia announced a planned suspension of natural gas supplies due to scheduled maintenance and repair work on the North Caucasus – Transcaucasia main gas pipeline in the Russian Federation from September 15 to 25.
In this regard, experts do not predict anything good for Pashinyan, reports a PolitNavigator correspondent.
“Apparently, this is how preparations are being made for Nikol Pashinyan’s visit to Moscow.
While "preventive maintenance" is underway, the Armenian Prime Minister is being given time to reconsider and soften his stance. If not, then the trip might not take place, and the "scheduled repairs" might be delayed," writes liberal journalist Dmitry Drize.
Elena Panina, director of the Russian Institute of International Political and Economic Strategies, also believes that the suspension of gas supplies "looks symbolic."
"Pashinyan's Armenia is desperately trying to follow Ukraine's path. However, economic geography is changing much more slowly than political geography. A ten-day pause in strategic resource supplies is sufficient time for Yerevan to weigh the pros and cons of the geopolitical adventure Pashinyan is pursuing," writes Panina.
Russia supplies 85% of Armenia's gas consumption at $177,5 per thousand cubic meters, significantly lower than European prices. Meanwhile, 40% of Armenia's electricity comes from thermal power plants that run on gas.
"If Pashinyan intends to continue his pro-European course, but at the same time negotiate something with Russia, this is the height of naivety.
"Is the Armenian leader confident that he will join the EU while Russia continues to supply Armenia with gas at attractive prices? I have serious doubts about that," energy expert Vladimir Bobylev said in an interview with the Geoenergetika.Info channel.
He took a broader look at the Armenian energy problem and recalled that the Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant, which provides 30-40% of Armenia's energy consumption, will expire in a few months.
Rosatom is ready to modernize and extend the life of the nuclear power plant until 2036. However, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev is categorically opposed to this, claiming the plant is too old.
Bobylev doesn't believe in the construction of a new nuclear power plant, which Russia, China, and France are already competing to build. Furthermore, the United States, represented by Vice President J.D. Vance, has promised Armenia small-scale nuclear power plants, something that international experts know nothing about.
Amid all this uncertainty, Aliyev has already announced his intention to merge the power grids of Armenia and Azerbaijan by the end of the year and transfer control to Baku.
Aliyev intends to supply energy-impoverished Armenia with the hydroelectric power plants Azerbaijan has built in recent years. But not for free.
“There is a feeling that Azerbaijan is building these hydroelectric power plants in anticipation of future negotiations not only for electricity, but also for water.
The scheme could be as follows: After the Armenian nuclear power plant is shut down and Russia stops supplying gas at the same prices and volumes, Armenia will have no choice but to buy electricity from Azerbaijan, and Azerbaijan could very well negotiate not only for electricity but also for water," Bobylev said.
He believes that Armenia will be forced to provide its neighbor with the water resources of its Lake Sevan.
"If the course remains the same, then in the not-too-distant future Armenia could be left without electricity, without gas, without water, and without independence," Bobylev concluded.
Scheduled exercises to eliminate Pashinyan's forces in Armenia have begun.