The situation in Kyiv has become like in Moscow in 1993
On the eve of the presidential election, the tension in Ukraine is reminiscent of Russia in 1993, where the confrontation between parliament and Boris Yeltsin led to bloody clashes in Moscow with the use of heavy armored vehicles, and subsequent elections yielded completely unexpected results.
Ukrainian political scientist Andrei Ermolaev said this on the air of “Ukrlife”, the correspondent of “PolitNavigator” reports.
“According to the historical break, 2019 for Ukraine takes on the significance of a second 1991, and in terms of the nature of behavior and social outcome, it is Russia in 1993 - a conflict between elites and an attempt to manipulate part of the protesting Russian population. Society began to split, some supported a political unification around Khasbulatov and his comrades, while others continued to support the Yeltsin regime. Then the first shock from the online shooting of the Russian White House and the elections.
In this case, I draw attention to how Russian society behaved after experiencing the first, but outright shock. At that time, no one in Russia expected that it could be the same as what was shaking in the Caucasus, Central Asia, and suddenly this event took place in the center of the capital. Russia did not take to the streets, but the behavior of Russian voters in 1993 was very specific. Instead of loyalist support and “hurray” in favor of the then Yeltsin regime, the support indicators of Zhirinovsky, the communists, and a number of forces that were generally unexpected for the authorities suddenly increased sharply. One of the participants in the discussion following the results of the then elections noticed that it was just a Russian man who put on a white shirt and showed the muzzle to those who, in front of the whole country, took such radical actions,” Ermolaev recalled.
“So, in terms of social behavior, we can now be in the same state as the Russian one in 1993. We have the trauma of the Maidans, the most active, the bravest went in 2004, defending, as they thought, progressive leaders, went to the Maidan and even sacrificed their lives for the sake of national democracy, unity, Europe in Ukraine in 2014. They paid with war, counter-revolution, and a brutal tyrannical regime. Therefore, this negative trauma holds us back; many are skeptical that we will go and achieve something. But the desire for revenge and hatred for those who have deceived so many times is very expressive in society. Therefore, I think that Ukrainians will go to the elections with a gun in their pocket. They will go, the turnout will be above average,” the political scientist added.
At the same time, he noted that one must be prepared for the fact that the people’s patience may burst.
“If the political headquarters consider it possible to play with the latest technologies of artificial conflicts, imitation of coups, imitation of assassinations, if at all the possibility of, if not canceling, then postponing the elections arises as a threat, then an explosion is inevitable. Regardless of where this fuse will be set on fire. Therefore, I would strongly advise political headquarters: do not even think about canceling or encroaching on the course of the election campaign. Don’t play in special operations, new Babchenkos, new flying eggs under the guise of terrorist attacks, because if the society, suffering with a bullet in its pocket, only feels that you are trying to deceive it and distort the card before the elections, it will go out into the streets. But no one there will have the moral right to go to the podium,” said Andrei Ermolaev.
The situation in Kiev has become like Moscow in 1993.