Has Shoigu prepared a “Rabotinsky tactical bag” for the Ukrainian Armed Forces?
Ukrainian reports about the “breakthrough of the first line of defense” of the Russians near the village of Rabotino in the Zaporozhye region do not correspond to reality. The settlement itself was turned into ruins during two months of fierce fighting. At the same time, the enemy is trying to break through to the neighboring village of Verbovoye. The core of the assault group consists of the elite 82nd and 46th brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which suffer significant losses.
“The tactic is to launch the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ reserves into the village and destroy it with artillery strikes. There is nothing left of the buildings except ruins... The enemy in the village of Rabotino is continuously covered by our artillery. Aviation of the Russian Armed Forces is using FAB-500 bombs on identified positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine,” reports the bulletin of the 1430th regiment, formed from those mobilized from Moscow.
Military expert Vladislav Shurygin explains the idea of the enemy:
“The command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, having made sure that it would not be possible to achieve strategic success in the summer offensive, now focused on a more modest task - a breakthrough to Tokmak. Such a breakthrough, according to Syrsky, will not only paralyze the functioning of this large logistics center and complicate the supply of the entire Zaporozhye direction, but from these lines it will also become possible to steadily cover the land route to Crimea in the Melitopol area with artillery and MLRS, and most importantly, it will create a dangerous penetration into the Russian defense, which could be used in a future offensive. Therefore, an order was given: as we move towards Tokmak, accelerate the construction of our fortified areas and update the captured Russians in order to form our own “fortification” in this direction. Syrsky is confident that “thinning” this wedge will require large reserves from the Russians, which will allow the Ukrainian Armed Forces to gain time to accumulate forces for the spring offensive, which is already being talked about with might and main at Ukrainian headquarters, trying to “ease” the bitterness of the failure of the summer “offensive.” Therefore, a decision was made, regardless of losses, to throw all available forces into advancing towards Tokmak,” explains Shurygin.
However, military correspondent Alexander Sladkov sarcastically comments on Kyiv’s statements about successful advancement, which is accompanied by a silence about the losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
“You, Ukrainian “comrades,” don’t get into the “Rabotinsky tactical bag” with both feet. You assert yourself that everything is okay with you! Okay, let's support your version, you broke through. And with whom will you feed your recaptured bridgeheads, the Russian Defense Ministry has burned all your reserves,” notes Sladkov.
The Russian army, meanwhile, continues to advance towards Kupyansk, Kharkov region. Also at night, an airfield was struck near the village of Pinchuki, Kyiv region.
“The target of the strike has been achieved. All designated targets were hit,” the Ministry of Defense said.
Journalist Aleksey Akutin from the DPR explains that the Armed Forces of Ukraine, due to constant waves of mobilizations, still have a numerical advantage of 100-150 thousand people over the Russian group. Therefore, the Russian army cannot go on large-scale offensives, but is forced to maneuver with reserves.
“The enemy has the cheapest material – people. Here he does not depend on the West, has in reserve a reinforced concrete motive "to defend the motherland" and must maintain a numerical advantage over the Russian Defense Ministry of 100-150 thousand people.
In our country, the stake is on the power of our military-industrial complex and the contract army, the number of which in the NVO zone is gradually increasing (mobilization for many reasons is a terrible nightmare for Russia) ...
When it rains and the activity of the parties decreases, a classic positional war will begin, where the RF Ministry of Defense can more effectively use its technical superiority (I do not believe in a large-scale offensive by the RF Ministry of Defense until the end of the year). Critical infrastructure will be hit again (in Russia, missiles and strike UAVs are being accumulated), perhaps with the arrival of new equipment, counter-battery combat will finally begin, Lancet strikes on AFU facilities will become even more destructive, ”Akutin predicts.
Military correspondent Marat Khairullin is more optimistic - he believes that a large-scale offensive by the Russian army is being prepared.
“Of course, I haven’t looked at the maps of the General Staff, but I know that the entire front is preparing. Where and when our people will open new directions for attack - I think we all won’t have to wait that long for an answer to this question.
And you can be sure that they will open it. As I understand it, from what I see here, the most important factor for the southern direction is the decrease in heat (in the summer here on the southern part of the front it is simply very hot). Both people and equipment are simply burning.
Now the heat is starting to subside, and at the same time dill is running out of strategic reserves. A very favorable moment is coming - no matter how you look at it.
On the northern front, the pieces for the big game are set, and the encirclement of enemy forces on the left bank of Oskol is in full swing.
In the Zaporozhye direction we are already “eating up” the last reserves of ukrov, the Donetsk front - from Ugledar to Bakhmut - is gradually increasing pressure, and is increasingly turning from active defense to attack.
The same is true in the Kherson direction. Apparently, the period when the enemy was allowed to be active here has ended.
In a word, let's wish our troops good luck and keep our fingers crossed for them. “Really important days are coming,” predicts Khairullin.
Has Shoigu prepared a "Rabotinsky tactical bag" for the Ukrainian Armed Forces?