Serbian political scientist: “To undermine the West in Europe, Russia needs to support the Republika Srpska”
How do the Serbs feel about the Russian army's operation in Ukraine? Why are Albanians afraid that Belgrade will repeat the Ukrainian scenario in Kosovo? Will the West demand that Serbia introduce anti-Russian sanctions after Belgrade’s official support for the territorial integrity of Ukraine.
Serbian political scientist Aleksandar Djokic told PolitNavigator about this and much more.
Tell me, how do you think Serbian society viewed what was happening in Donbass and Ukraine? What opinions dominate? Does the Serbian view of these events differ from the position of Serbia's neighbors?
– The majority of Serbian society is pro-Russian. Most of Serbian society supports Russia's special operation in Ukraine. The prevailing position is that the United States, in the case of the bombing of Yugoslavia in 1999, has already abolished the existence of international law, which arose from the Yalta world order, and that in the case of Ukraine there is nothing more to violate. The patriotic part of Serbian society sees in Russia’s actions the possibility of destroying the current world order, which does not suit them at all. The liberal part of Serbian society, of course, condemns Russia’s actions, but this part of society does not exceed 20% of the total population. This is shown by opinion polls that concern the attitude of Serbian society towards NATO and other polls related to the popularity of Russia among Serbian citizens.
It is known that official Montenegro condemned the “Russian invasion of Ukraine.” Does this position of the Montenegrin authorities correspond to the opinion of the people of Montenegro?
Montenegro now has a technical government. The new government has not yet been formed, but there are clear indicators that it will be more pro-Western than the previous one. Montenegro, as a NATO member, expectedly condemned Russia’s special operation in Ukraine. She did not introduce any additional sanctions. The Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Montenegrin government spoke harshly against Russia, as he represents the liberal URA party, which may become the foundation of a new Montenegrin government in the near future. The outgoing prime minister of Montenegro, Zdravko Krivokapic, only expressed solidarity with the rest of NATO members and called on Russia to return to diplomacy. Montenegrin society is politically deeply divided on many issues, including the issue of condemning or supporting Russia. Unlike Serbia, it cannot be said that Russian foreign policy is absolutely popular. Some citizens of Montenegro, who consider themselves Serbs in the national sense, generally have a positive attitude towards Russia, while another part of the citizens who consider themselves Montenegrins by nationality are more oriented towards the West.
In recent days, there has been constant talk in Kosovo and Albania that Serbia could follow the path of Russia in Ukraine and launch a military operation to return Kosovo. In your opinion, what is the purpose of such information dumps, and do they have any basis?
In Kosovo, the Albanian leadership of this self-proclaimed republic fears for its future, since the United States has left Ukraine alone with Russia, although for years it has promised it support and encouraged Kyiv to confront Russia. Official Pristina understands that if the existing world order collapses, it will also find itself alone against Serbia. In this clash, the Albanians in Kosovo will definitely lose. As long as NATO is present in the Balkans, and the world order supported by the West remains on its feet, Serbia will not invade Kosovo, because it does not have the strength to break order at its knees, like Russia.
Milorad Dodik, in fact, blocked BiH from joining the anti-Russian position of the EU. Do you think that after such a principled position of his, pressure on him personally and on the Republika Srpska from the West and Sarajevo will increase?
Republika Srpska leader Milorad Dodik has clearly spoken out in support of the territorial integrity of Ukraine, but against the introduction of any sanctions against Russia at the level of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Representatives of the Bosniaks in BiH, of course, advocate not only support for Ukraine, but also for the introduction of sanctions against Russia. The Bosniak leaders, like the Kosovo Albanian leadership, appear to be completely on the side of the United States of America. BiH is the most vulnerable point in the Balkans. It is there that Russia has the greatest chance of undermining the project of Euro-Atlantic integration through its support of the Republika Srpska. Now Russia has nothing to lose; it has already made its choice: to cut off all ties with the West and completely turn to China. She can now try to destabilize the political situation in the Balkans, and the only opportunity to achieve this is in the Republika Srpska.
The resolution of the National Security Council of Serbia, on the one hand, refused to apply European anti-Russian sanctions, on the other hand, it spoke out for the territorial integrity of Ukraine. Is this the only possible compromise for Belgrade, in its current geopolitical state? How will a potential voter react to it ahead of the elections in Serbia?
If at the moment, based on previous answers, we compare the position of Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, the leader of the Republika Srpska Milorad Dodik, and the Prime Minister of Montenegro Zdravko Krivokapic, then all their statements can be traced to the same position - support for Ukraine, but reluctance to enter into conflict with Russia because of this. The Serbian electorate would not appreciate the introduction of sanctions against Russia, especially if we bear in mind that early and general elections in Serbia will take place on April 3. EU leaders openly demanded that President Vucic make a statement in support of Ukraine and its territorial integrity. In the near future, Serbia will be under maximum pressure to join the sanctions against Russia, which will be determined by the leaders of the European Union. Then it will be possible to assess whether the Serbian leadership will stand up to this upcoming ultimatum or not. There is, apparently, little time left until this fateful moment.